【摘要】：自十六大以來,國家的文件中多次出現(xiàn)關(guān)于新型工業(yè)化與新型城市化的指導(dǎo)政策。十八大則提出了發(fā)展新型城鎮(zhèn)化的要求。在推進(jìn)新型工業(yè)化與新型城市化時(shí),二者不能顧此失彼。和全國一樣,安徽省的城市化水平一直滯后于工業(yè)化水平。這二者究竟存在著怎樣的關(guān)系,對于安徽省來說,二者發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)與否,是前者帶動(dòng)了后者的發(fā)展,還是后者帶動(dòng)了前者的發(fā)展,這些問題的解決為相關(guān)部門的政策制定提供依據(jù)。 為了考察安徽省新型工業(yè)化與新型城市化的關(guān)系,首先本文對安徽省新型工業(yè)化水平進(jìn)行測度,分別從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及工業(yè)化階段來考察新型工業(yè)化水平,接著通過構(gòu)建22個(gè)指標(biāo)的評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,結(jié)合灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法,測算出1992-2011年安徽省新型工業(yè)化綜合指數(shù),發(fā)現(xiàn)除了個(gè)別年份下降外,總體呈現(xiàn)上升的趨勢。 其次,對建國以來安徽省城市化進(jìn)程及表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行了分析,接著采用層次分析法,根據(jù)選取的指標(biāo),測算了1992-2011年安徽省新型城市化綜合指數(shù),結(jié)果表明1992-2005年安徽省新型城市化發(fā)展緩慢,然而2006-2011年新型城市化卻得到了較快的發(fā)展。 在測算出1992-2011年安徽省新型工業(yè)化綜合指數(shù)與新型城市化綜合指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上,從協(xié)調(diào)性和動(dòng)態(tài)分析兩方而研究了二者的關(guān)系。借助于熵變方程和耦合協(xié)調(diào)度分別從定性和定量兩個(gè)角度研究了二者的協(xié)調(diào)度,發(fā)現(xiàn)二者呈現(xiàn)越來越協(xié)調(diào)的發(fā)展之勢。協(xié)整分析中給出了協(xié)整方程,Granger檢驗(yàn)表明：新型工業(yè)化是新型城市化變化的Granger原因,而后者不是前者變化的Granger原因。進(jìn)一步的脈沖響應(yīng)分析及方差分解說明：新型工業(yè)化水平的提高會(huì)推動(dòng)新型城市化的發(fā)展,而新型城市化水平對新型工業(yè)化的沖擊效應(yīng)也有一定的影響,只是表現(xiàn)得不那么強(qiáng)烈,有微弱的正向推動(dòng)作用,且隨著時(shí)間增長有增強(qiáng)的趨勢。 最后,本文簡要地給出推動(dòng)二者協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的幾點(diǎn)相關(guān)建議：優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),發(fā)展綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)；促進(jìn)農(nóng)民工市民化,快速推進(jìn)新型城市化；協(xié)調(diào)省內(nèi)區(qū)域發(fā)展,健全現(xiàn)代城鎮(zhèn)體系。
[Abstract]:Since the 16th National Congress, the national documents on new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization guidance policy. The 18th National Congress put forward the requirement of developing new urbanization. In promoting new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization, the two cannot ignore one another. Like the whole country, the level of urbanization in Anhui Province has lagged behind the level of industrialization. What is the relationship between the two? for Anhui Province, is the former driving the development of the latter or the latter driving the development of the former? The solution of these problems provides the basis for the policy making of relevant departments. In order to investigate the relationship between new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization in Anhui Province, this paper first measures the level of new-type industrialization in Anhui Province, and examines the level of new-type industrialization from industrial structure and industrialization stage, respectively. Then, by constructing the evaluation index system of 22 indexes and combining the grey correlation method, the author calculates the comprehensive index of new industrialization in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011, and finds that the overall trend is rising except for the decline of individual years. Secondly, it analyzes the process and performance of urbanization in Anhui Province since the founding of the people's Republic of China, and then calculates the comprehensive index of new urbanization in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011 by using the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and according to the selected indicators. The results show that the new urbanization in Anhui Province developed slowly from 1992 to 2005, but the new urbanization developed rapidly in 2006-2011. On the basis of calculating the comprehensive index of new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization of Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011, this paper studies the relationship between them from coordination and dynamic analysis. With the help of entropy equation and coupling coordination degree, the coordination degree between them is studied from the qualitative and quantitative aspects, and it is found that they are developing more and more harmoniously. In the cointegration analysis, the co-integration equation is given and the Granger test shows that the new industrialization is the Granger cause of the new urbanization change, but the latter is not the Granger cause of the former. The further pulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the improvement of the new industrialization level will promote the development of the new urbanization, and the new urbanization level will also have a certain impact on the impact effect of the new industrialization. But not so strong, there is a weak positive push, and over time there is an increasing trend. Finally, this paper briefly gives some relevant suggestions to promote the coordinated development of the two: optimizing the industrial structure, developing green economy; promoting the urbanization of migrant workers; coordinating the regional development of the province, and improving the modern urban system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F427;F299.27

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