本文選題：干散貨航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)　切入點(diǎn)：造船市場(chǎng)　出處：《武漢大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)和歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)以來(lái),全球航運(yùn)業(yè)雖然經(jīng)歷了短暫的反彈,但好景不長(zhǎng),隨后再次跌入谷底,其中干散貨航運(yùn)業(yè)變化尤為明顯。目前全行業(yè)面臨有效需求不足,運(yùn)力供給過(guò)剩,成本壓力過(guò)大,運(yùn)價(jià)長(zhǎng)期低迷的困境。其中運(yùn)力過(guò)剩是目前面臨最為突出的問(wèn)題。本文從干散貨造船市場(chǎng)與貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)之間存在的時(shí)間滯后出發(fā),探尋運(yùn)力過(guò)剩背后的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)因。 在大多數(shù)航運(yùn)業(yè)有關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究中都只是依據(jù)有效市場(chǎng)假說(shuō),把造船市場(chǎng)當(dāng)做與其相關(guān)的變量進(jìn)行討論。本文創(chuàng)新性地從造船業(yè)的視角出發(fā),運(yùn)用時(shí)間序列和面板數(shù)據(jù)分析方法,研究干散貨造船市場(chǎng)與貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。 為了有效分析干散貨造船市場(chǎng)與貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系,本文從運(yùn)費(fèi)、造船訂單、船舶交付之間的相互影響入手進(jìn)行了一系列研究。首先探討了運(yùn)費(fèi)和造船價(jià)格之間的方向因果關(guān)系。通過(guò)單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和脈沖響應(yīng)分析,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)了從運(yùn)費(fèi)到造船價(jià)格的正向-單向因果關(guān)系,從運(yùn)費(fèi)到造船價(jià)格的滯后時(shí)間大約是三到六個(gè)月,存在時(shí)間滯后說(shuō)明兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的信息流動(dòng)并不像有效市場(chǎng)假說(shuō)(EMH)所預(yù)期的那樣有效。 其次,本文研究了干散貨造船市場(chǎng)投資活動(dòng)的決定因素。運(yùn)用混合面板數(shù)據(jù)方法研究后證實(shí),貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)費(fèi)對(duì)于船舶投資活動(dòng)具有重要作用,并發(fā)現(xiàn)日本、韓國(guó)、中國(guó)等國(guó)家的造船業(yè)存在極強(qiáng)的集群效應(yīng)。 最后,本文就船隊(duì)規(guī)模變化對(duì)運(yùn)費(fèi)波動(dòng)率的影響展開(kāi)了論述,先以AR-GARCH模型來(lái)測(cè)量運(yùn)費(fèi)的波動(dòng)率,接著用GMM法分析了貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)費(fèi)波動(dòng)率與船隊(duì)規(guī)模之間的關(guān)系。研究表明船隊(duì)規(guī)模是運(yùn)費(fèi)波動(dòng)率的關(guān)鍵決定因素,并且以一種非線性的方式對(duì)運(yùn)費(fèi)波動(dòng)率產(chǎn)生顯著影響。 本文的研究結(jié)果將有助于船東改進(jìn)投資決策,并對(duì)國(guó)家制定相關(guān)政策具有一定的參考意義。
[Abstract]:Since the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, the global shipping industry has experienced a brief rebound, but then again fall into the bottom, good times don't last long, the bulk shipping industry change is obvious. At present, the industry is facing a shortage of effective demand, excess supply capacity, the cost pressure is too large, long-term downturn. The rate of excess capacity is currently facing the most prominent problem. In this paper between the dry bulk freight market, shipbuilding market and time lag of exploring the motivation behind the economics of excess capacity.
In the study on the economics of most of the shipping industry is based on the efficient market hypothesis, the shipbuilding market as discussed related variables. This paper innovatively starting from the shipbuilding industry perspective, using time series and panel data analysis method, study on the dynamic relationship between the ship dry bulk market and the freight market.
In order to effectively analyze the dynamic relationship between the dry bulk cargo market and shipbuilding market, this article from the shipping, shipbuilding orders, the mutual influence between the delivery of the ship with a series of research. First discusses between shipping and shipbuilding price in the direction of causality. Through unit root test, cointegration test and impulse response analysis, the study found that from the freight forward shipbuilding price one-way causal relationship is about three to six months from the freight ship price lag time, time lag exists that the two market flow of information is not the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) as effective as expected.
Secondly, this paper studies the determinants of dry bulk shipping market investment activities. Using the method of mixed panel data confirmed that the freight freight market plays an important role in ship investment activities, and found that Japan, South Korea, and other countries are Chinese shipbuilding industry cluster effect is extremely strong.
Finally, the fleet size of freight volatility is discussed, using AR-GARCH model to measure the volatility of freight, and then use the GMM method to analyze the relationship between freight freight market volatility and the size of the fleet. The research showed that the fleet size is a key determinant of freight volatility, and in a nonlinear the way of freight volatility have a significant impact.
The results of this study will help the shipowners to improve their investment decisions and have a certain reference for the country to formulate relevant policies.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F551;F416.474

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 馬碩;;航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)周期理論與當(dāng)今干散貨航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)變化[J];水運(yùn)管理;2009年11期

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本文編號(hào)：1565057