本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城市公共交通 城市軌道交通 有軌電車 運營成本 靈敏度分析　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著以汽車為主導(dǎo)的交通模式所帶來的交通擁堵、能源危機、環(huán)境污染等問題日益嚴峻,發(fā)展大容量公共交通為主導(dǎo)的城市交通系統(tǒng)受到各大城市的重視。具有運量適中、投資較低、節(jié)能環(huán)保及運營組織靈活等優(yōu)點的有軌電車受到很多城市的青睞。有軌電車的運營成本影響政府及企業(yè)對有軌電車的選擇和運營,因此,研究有軌電車的運營成本構(gòu)成及測算方法,對有軌電車的科學(xué)發(fā)展具有重要的借鑒意義。 本文對現(xiàn)代有軌電車在國內(nèi)外的運營組織情況進行研究,分析了有軌電車在不同城市的功能定位和財務(wù)經(jīng)營情況,提出了有軌電車運營成本的測算模型并進行實例驗證,最后對成本因素進行靈敏度分析,本文的主要工作和結(jié)論如下： (1)分析有軌電車的特性,將有軌電車與其他公共交通方式在技術(shù)參數(shù)、運營成本和服務(wù)指標上進行對比,得到有軌電車的建設(shè)成本較低、運營組織靈活、發(fā)展?jié)摿^大的結(jié)論。分析國內(nèi)外典型城市有軌電車的運營組織、功能定位、補貼財政等,得到財務(wù)經(jīng)營狀況主要受運營主體、功能定位影響的結(jié)論,例如財務(wù)經(jīng)營比較成功的香港、舊金山、巴黎均是政府委托企業(yè)運營,運行組織靈活、票制多樣,客運量較高,需要補貼較少,甚至能夠盈利。 (2)結(jié)合我國有軌電車的特點,把運營成本分為可變成本和固定成本,細化了牽引能耗費用和維修費用,可變成本包括牽引電力消耗費用和動車組維修費用,固定成本包括人員工資福利、固定設(shè)備維護維修費用、車站動力照明費用、綜合管理費用和其他費用,提出了運營成本測算模型。并以上海張江線為案例,測算得到年運營成本為3041.26萬元,單位人次運營成本為11.90元；與國內(nèi)外其他線路的運營成本進行比較,得到運營成本與客運量有關(guān),單位客運量運營成本與客運量、服務(wù)水平、人工成本等因素有關(guān)的結(jié)論。建議張江線借鑒愛丁堡1a線的靈活運行策略來降低運營成本,借鑒其聯(lián)合公交票制來吸引客流,增加運營收入。 (3)對有軌電車運營成本的構(gòu)成因素進行靈敏度分析,分別研究一個、多個因素的變化對運營成本的影響程度,包括客運量、車輛運用、技術(shù)速度、勞動生產(chǎn)率等因素。研究得到客運量提高20%時,年運營成本提高了0.93%,影響較�。粏挝豢瓦\量運營成本降低了15.89%,影響較大。建議客運量提高時,適當提高發(fā)車單元數(shù)和技術(shù)速度,增強有軌電車的競爭力；運輸能力過剩時,可以適當縮減發(fā)車頻率、降低運行速度來降低運營成本。
[Abstract]:With the traffic congestion, energy crisis, environmental pollution and other problems brought by the vehicle-oriented traffic mode, the development of the urban transportation system dominated by mass public transport has attracted the attention of the major cities. Trams with the advantages of low investment, energy saving, environmental protection and flexible operation organization are favored by many cities. The operation cost of trams affects the choice and operation of trams by the government and enterprises. It is of great significance for the scientific development of trams to study the operation cost composition and calculation method of tram. In this paper, the operation organization of modern trams at home and abroad is studied, the function orientation and financial management of trams in different cities are analyzed, and the calculating model of tram operating cost is put forward and verified by an example. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of cost factors is carried out. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:. 1) analyzing the characteristics of trams, comparing trams with other public transportation modes in terms of technical parameters, operating costs and service indicators, it is concluded that the construction cost of trams is lower and the operation organization is flexible. This paper analyzes the operation organization, function orientation, subsidy finance of trams in typical cities at home and abroad, and draws the conclusion that the financial operation status is mainly affected by the main body of operation and the function orientation. For example, Hong Kong, San Francisco and Paris, where financial operations are relatively successful, are entrusted by the government to run enterprises, with flexible operating organizations, diverse ticket systems, high passenger volumes, less subsidies and even profitability. According to the characteristics of tram in China, the operation cost is divided into variable cost and fixed cost, and the cost of traction energy consumption and maintenance is refined. The variable cost includes the cost of traction power consumption and the maintenance cost of EMU. The fixed cost includes salary and welfare of personnel, maintenance and repair of fixed equipment, power lighting cost of station, comprehensive management cost and other expenses. The calculation model of operation cost is put forward, and a case study of Zhangjiang Line in Shanghai is given. The annual operating cost is estimated to be thirty million four hundred and twelve thousand and six hundred yuan, and the operating cost per person per person is 11.90 yuan. Compared with the operating cost of other lines at home and abroad, the operating cost is related to the passenger volume, and the unit passenger volume operation cost and passenger volume, service level, It is suggested that the Zhangjiang Line should draw lessons from the flexible operation strategy of Edinburgh Line 1a to reduce the operating cost and draw lessons from the United bus ticket system to attract passengers and increase operating income. (3) the sensitivity analysis of the component factors of tram operation cost is carried out, and the influence of the change of several factors on the operation cost is studied, including passenger volume, vehicle operation, technical speed, etc. When the passenger volume is increased by 20%, the annual operating cost is increased by 0.93, and the influence is small; the unit passenger volume operation cost is reduced by 15.89, and the influence is great. It is suggested that when the passenger volume is increased, the number of departure units and the technical speed should be appropriately increased. When the transportation capacity is excess, the departure frequency can be reduced, and the running speed can be reduced to reduce the operating cost.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F570.5;U492.433

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