本文關(guān)鍵詞： 區(qū)域物流 區(qū)域物流需求 區(qū)域貨運量 小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò) 物流園區(qū)規(guī)模　出處：《河北工程大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域貨運量預(yù)測是區(qū)域物流規(guī)劃中一項很重要的工作。合理預(yù)測區(qū)域貨運量是規(guī)劃區(qū)域物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)，為網(wǎng)絡(luò)布局和區(qū)域物流的發(fā)展指明方向。合理預(yù)測區(qū)域貨運量的目的在于，能夠使區(qū)域物流服務(wù)的供給與需求之間保持平衡，使區(qū)域物流保持較高的效益和效率。 本文在閱讀大量文獻的基礎(chǔ)上，全面的了解國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀和存在的問題。在此基礎(chǔ)上，介紹了區(qū)域物流相關(guān)理論及特征，區(qū)域貨運量預(yù)測中比較基礎(chǔ)實用的預(yù)測方法，并提出基于區(qū)域貨運量預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)對物流園區(qū)占地面積進行規(guī)劃的目的，文章指出由于區(qū)域物流需求相對難以衡量，以區(qū)域貨運量為分析對象更為合適，以達到數(shù)據(jù)量化的效果。之后，文章分析了區(qū)域貨運量的主要影響因素，從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟總量，區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面構(gòu)建了區(qū)域貨運量的預(yù)測指標(biāo)體系。再次，由于文章采用小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對貨運量進行預(yù)測，小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)是傳統(tǒng)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和近年來研究比較多的小波分析理論結(jié)合而來，文章介紹了小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)這種算法的相關(guān)理論及如何建立模型并求解的。文章最后一章利用小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對邯鄲市貨運量進行了預(yù)測，對預(yù)測結(jié)果的合理性進行了檢驗，并將預(yù)測結(jié)果與指數(shù)平滑，多元回歸，，灰色預(yù)測模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果相比較，證明了小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的可行性和有效性。并在得到預(yù)測結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上，對邯鄲市2017年物流園區(qū)的占地規(guī)模和數(shù)量規(guī)模進行了規(guī)劃。
[Abstract]:Regional freight volume prediction is an important task in regional logistics planning. Reasonable forecasting of regional freight volume is the basis of planning the scale of regional logistics infrastructure construction. The purpose of reasonably forecasting regional freight volume is to keep a balance between supply and demand of regional logistics services and to maintain higher efficiency and efficiency of regional logistics. On the basis of reading a large number of documents, this paper has a comprehensive understanding of the current research situation and existing problems at home and abroad. On this basis, it introduces the relevant theories and characteristics of regional logistics, and the relatively basic and practical forecasting methods for regional freight volume forecasting. The purpose of planning the area of logistics park based on regional freight volume forecast data is put forward. It is pointed out that because regional logistics demand is relatively difficult to measure, it is more appropriate to take regional freight volume as the analysis object. In order to achieve the effect of quantitative data. Then, the paper analyzes the main factors of regional freight volume, from the regional economic aggregate, regional industrial structure and other aspects of the forecast index system of regional freight volume. In this paper, wavelet neural network is used to predict freight volume. Wavelet neural network is a combination of traditional BP neural network and wavelet analysis theory, which has been studied in recent years. This paper introduces the related theory of wavelet neural network algorithm and how to build the model and solve it. In the last chapter, we use wavelet neural network to forecast the freight volume of Handan city, and test the rationality of the forecast result. Compared with the prediction results of exponential smoothing, multivariate regression and grey prediction model, the feasibility and validity of wavelet neural network are proved. In 2017, Handan logistics park covers an area of scale and quantity of planning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F512.7

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