本文關(guān)鍵詞： 消費者行為分析 機票超售 航班優(yōu)化 航班延誤 波及效應　出處：《西南交通大學》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：航空物流運輸是我國目前最有發(fā)展前景的一種物流運輸方式。因為航空運輸快速且價格高的特點,隨著我國經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,人民的生活水平有了長足進步,對于出行方式的選擇,也從過去局限于陸路交通發(fā)展為越來越多的傾向于對航空交通方式的選擇。航空交通的發(fā)展,不僅是國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和人民生活水平提高的反應,更是從側(cè)面反應了一個國家科技水平和軍事實力。因此,民航運輸業(yè)的興衰,從某種意義上關(guān)系到國家的整體發(fā)展和現(xiàn)代化進程。所以對于航空業(yè)和航空公司航班管理的研究就顯得更加重要。 論文首先論證了航空旅客消費行為分析在當今航空公司航空物流管理研究的重要性,其次基于前人的基礎(chǔ),本論文創(chuàng)新性利用數(shù)據(jù)手段(彈性計算以及聚類分析)分析影響旅客選擇航班的因素,并將旅客消費訂單進行細分,對于不同消費者提出不同的營銷意見,有助于航空公司的市場營銷。同時,通過消費者訂單數(shù)據(jù)(非問卷調(diào)查)建立消費者流失模型,對不同消費者進行預測,有助于公司及時采取營銷手段,預防消費者流失。然后,本論文研究了機票的超售問題。首先介紹了航空公司進行機票超售的原因和可能的影響因素；其次通過對機票超售策略的主要決定因素No-Show率或售乘率的分析,解釋了現(xiàn)有的機票超售策略中存在的現(xiàn)象和問題,本論文還對No-Show率和售乘率進行了預測,使得航空公司可以以此進行機票超售管理,以實現(xiàn)航空公司利潤最大化的目的。本論文還研究了航班延誤的波及效應。航班延誤在社會上越來越受到人們的關(guān)注,傳統(tǒng)的文獻已經(jīng)對其進行了一系列的研究。與傳統(tǒng)文獻不同的是,本論文研究了航班延誤的波及效應,即一架航班的延誤對于其他航班的延誤可能性的影響,本論文稱之為波及效應。更加具體地,本論文進行了如下幾個假設(shè)的驗證,1)上一站的延誤航班越多,飛機晚到造成的延誤航班次數(shù)越多；2)首次延誤航班的延誤時間越長,航班延誤波及效應越顯著；3)機場自身對航班正點率有影響。最后,本論文還重點研究了市場旅客流量預測問題和航班頻率優(yōu)化問題。首先以航空市場旅客流量的基本特征為出發(fā)點,建立季節(jié)性組合預測模型,并以此預測相關(guān)航線上的旅客流量,然后以成本最小化為目標,建立航班頻率優(yōu)化模型。在此基礎(chǔ)上,選用中國南方航空股份有限公司大連分公司的相關(guān)航線數(shù)據(jù)為例進行實證分析。本論文的創(chuàng)新點在于進一步優(yōu)化航空市場旅客流量的預測模型和航班頻率優(yōu)化模型,并且從實證角度加以證明其可行性。 本論文在以下幾個方面對相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的文獻做出了貢獻。首先,對于航空公司以消費者為基礎(chǔ)的研究文獻幾乎沒有以消費者數(shù)據(jù)和航班數(shù)據(jù)為資料,而本論文創(chuàng)新性地提出從消費者消費行為數(shù)據(jù)、航班相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)等方面進行研究,一方面,相較于理論型或者邏輯分析型的文章,本論文具有更加真實的實證證據(jù)。另一方面,消費者行為數(shù)據(jù)和航班相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)是消費者行為和航空公司航班管理的真實數(shù)據(jù)反應,從其中所總結(jié)出來的現(xiàn)象就是可以代表消費者行為和航空公司航班管理的行為。其次,基于本論文數(shù)據(jù)的優(yōu)勢,本論文得以在實證分析部分加入聚類分析、季度趨勢等先進的實證分析方法,為本論文的分析和結(jié)論添加更加具有說服力的證據(jù)。再次,本論文對航空公司航班管理的出發(fā)點相較于傳統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域的文獻具有重大創(chuàng)新,即以消費者行為分析為出發(fā)點,這樣進行分析的好處就是,消費者是航空公司的主要服務(wù)對象,消費者的行為趨勢對航空公司的政策都有直接的影響,所以本論文從此出發(fā),更能體現(xiàn)航空公司本身的航班管理目的。
[Abstract]:Aviation logistics transportation is a mode of transport logistics in our country at present the most promising features of air transport. Because of rapid and high price, with China's rapid economic development, people's living standard has made great progress, for the choice of travel mode, from the past limited to road traffic development tendency for more and more on air traffic patterns. The development of air traffic, not only is the national economic development and people's living standards improve the response, is from the side reflects a country's scientific and technological level and military strength. Therefore, the rise and fall of civil aviation transportation industry, from some kind of significance to the country's overall development and modernization. So research on flight management in the aviation industry and aviation companies becomes more and more important.
The paper first discusses the importance of consumer behavior analysis of air passengers in today's airline aviation logistics management research. Secondly on the basis of predecessors, this thesis use innovative methods of data (elastic computing and cluster analysis) to analyze the influencing factors of passenger flight choice, and the consumer orders passenger segments, put forward different views for different consumer marketing, help airline marketing. At the same time, through the consumer orders data (non questionnaire) to establish consumer loss model, to predict different consumers, help the company to take timely preventive means of marketing, consumers lost. Then, overbooking problem is studied in this thesis. First introduced the ticket of airline ticket factors of overbooking and possible influence; followed by the main decision on the overbooking strategy factors of No-Show rate or rate of sale by The analysis, explain the phenomena and problems of existing overbooking strategy, this paper also gives a forecast of the No-Show rate and rate of sale by the airlines, can also be used for ticket sale management, in order to achieve airline profit maximization objective. This paper also studies the effect of flight delays. The society people pay more attention to the flight delay, the traditional literature has carried out a series of studies on it. Different from the traditional literature, this thesis studies a ripple effect of flight delays, flight delays of flights delay for other possibilities, we call this effect. More specifically, this paper verified the following hypothesis, 1) more flight delays on a station, the aircraft late more flight delays caused by the time delay; 2) for the first time the flight delay is longer, airlines The class delay propagation effect is more obvious; 3) the airport itself has an impact on the flight punctuality rate. Finally, the paper also focuses on the problems and optimization of flight frequency market passenger traffic. Firstly, the basic characteristics of aviation market passenger flow as the starting point, the establishment of a seasonal combination forecasting model, and to predict the passenger traffic route the cost and then to minimize the flight frequency optimization model. On this basis, the route data China South Uni Airways Corporation Dalian branch as an example of empirical analysis. The innovation of this paper is to further optimize the market of aviation passenger flow forecasting model and flight frequency optimization model, and proved its feasibility from the empirical point of view.
This paper contributes to the literature in the following aspects. First of all, for the airline consumer based on almost no literature to consumer data and flight data, this paper innovatively presents data from consumer behavior, research, flight data on the one hand, compared to the the theory or logical analysis type of article, this paper has the empirical evidence is more real. On the other hand, consumer behavior data and flight related data is real data of consumer behavior and airline flight management, from which summed up the phenomenon that can represent the consumer behavior and flight management of airlines. Secondly, the data of this paper is based on the advantages of cluster analysis in the empirical analysis part, empirical analysis of quarterly trend and other advanced methods And add more convincing evidence for the analysis and conclusion of this thesis. Thirdly, the starting point of the field of traditional airline flight management compared to the literature has a major innovation in consumer behavior analysis as a starting point, this analysis of the benefits is that consumers are the main service objects are airlines. Have a direct impact on consumer behavior trends in policy of the airline, so this paper on the basis of this, to better reflect the airline flight management itself.

【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F562;F713.55

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本文編號：1532658