發(fā)布時間：2018-02-22 00:15

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 沿海港口 集裝箱吞吐量 國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值 關(guān)聯(lián)指數(shù)模型　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：交通運輸是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ)。集裝箱運輸是交通運輸現(xiàn)代化的重要形式。集裝箱港口質(zhì)量的好壞影響到對外運輸成本,關(guān)系到外國直接投資(Foreign Direct Investment, FDI)流入的數(shù)量。優(yōu)質(zhì)的港口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施會產(chǎn)生積聚效應(yīng),80年代我國集裝箱運輸業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展催生了各地集裝箱碼頭建設(shè)的熱潮。由于集裝箱港口具有建設(shè)資金投入量大、建設(shè)周期長的特點,盲目追求發(fā)展樞紐港的熱潮將造成巨大的浪費。因此開展對我國和干線港口集裝箱吞吐量“十三五期間”(至2020年)預(yù)測對我國港口合理布局和規(guī)劃以及對綜合交通體系的建設(shè)具有重要意義。 本文在對國內(nèi)外海港集裝箱運輸研究成果進(jìn)行綜述,對交通運輸和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的主要理論介紹的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了我國GDP及其要素與海港集裝箱吞吐量的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度,人均GDP和外貿(mào)與服務(wù)進(jìn)出口總額對海港集裝箱吞吐量變化的貢獻(xiàn)率,總結(jié)出國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量因果關(guān)系：沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值關(guān)聯(lián)特性可以表示為海港集裝箱吞吐量對屬地GDP的彈性系數(shù)。為了分析GDP的三大要素對海港集裝箱吞吐量的拉動作用,推導(dǎo)了海港集裝箱吞吐量相對GDP的彈性系數(shù)和相對三大要素的彈性系數(shù)之間的換算公式。 本文分析了美國集裝箱體系的演化過程,梳理了日本集裝箱吞吐量數(shù)據(jù),比較中國、美國和日本集裝箱運輸業(yè)發(fā)展軌跡和產(chǎn)生三國集裝箱吞吐量差別的原因。提出不同地區(qū)沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值關(guān)系也不一樣,沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值關(guān)系是屬地的自然稟賦、工業(yè)化發(fā)展階段、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的模式和在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化鏈條中分工的位置的綜合反映。進(jìn)而指出：中國海港集裝箱運輸業(yè)走了一條完全不同于發(fā)達(dá)國家(地區(qū))的發(fā)展道路。 為了預(yù)測我國沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量,本文利用時間序列-因果關(guān)系結(jié)合法建立了沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值關(guān)聯(lián)的指數(shù)模型。該模型用GDP數(shù)據(jù)取代時間作解釋變量,為了克服非線性曲線帶來的不穩(wěn)定性,我們分別對集裝箱吞吐量時間序列和GDP時間序列取自然對數(shù),然后采用HP濾波技術(shù),用GDP時間序列的趨勢分量擬合集裝箱吞吐量時間序列的趨勢分量,建立了反映國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量因果關(guān)系的指數(shù)模型。提出我國GDP若以年均7.5%的速度增長,2020年我國沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量將達(dá)到2.308億TEU。我國GDP若以年均6.0%的速度增長,2020年我國沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量將達(dá)到2.258億TEU。我國GDP若以年均4.5%的速度增長,2020年我國沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量達(dá)到2.195億TEU。 干線港集裝箱吞吐量決定了我國集裝箱吞吐量的走勢,對我國干線港集裝箱吞吐量的預(yù)測是對我國沿海港口集裝箱吞吐量結(jié)果的詮釋。我們根據(jù)干線港集裝箱吞吐量增長率的變化趨勢,分別采用Logistic模型,指數(shù)模型和組合預(yù)測法對上海、深圳、廣州、天津、寧波-舟山、青島、大連和廈門等8個干線港集裝箱吞吐量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,預(yù)測結(jié)果表明：2014-2020年干線港集裝箱吞吐量的增長速度呈現(xiàn)逐步減小的趨勢,在GDP平穩(wěn)增長常態(tài)化的條件下,干線港集裝箱吞吐量增長趨勢將有所減緩。對比2013年集裝箱吞吐量和2020年集裝箱吞吐量在全國占比平方和,推斷我國集裝箱港口體系由壟斷型向競爭型發(fā)展的長期趨勢。 目前,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢錯綜復(fù)雜,我國正在推進(jìn)要素驅(qū)動向創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動為主經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整。我國作為“世界加工廠”的位置將得以改變。科學(xué)的預(yù)測對實現(xiàn)我國海港集裝箱港口的合理布局和規(guī)劃將具有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:Transportation is an important foundation of national economic and social development. Container transportation is an important form of modern transportation. Affect quality of container ports to foreign transportation costs related to foreign direct investment (Foreign Direct, Investment, FDI) into the quantity. The quality of port infrastructure will have accumulated effect, in 80s China's container transportation boom spawned throughout the construction of container terminal construction boom. Because the container port with a large amount of capital investment, long construction period, the blind pursuit of development boom hub will cause huge waste. Therefore to carry out "China and the container throughput of link ports during 13th Five-Year" (2020) prediction has important significance on China's port layout and planning and construction of the integrated transportation system.
This paper in the harbor of domestic and international container transportation research, introduced the main theory of transportation economics and on the analysis of grey correlation degree and GDP elements and the seaport container throughput in China, per capita GDP and foreign trade and service import and export volume change on port container throughput contribution rate, summed up the domestic production gross and coastal port container throughput of causality: correlation of coastal port container throughput and GDP can be expressed as the coefficient of elasticity of harbor container throughput of GDP. For the local stimulating effect of three factors analysis GDP for seaport container throughput, conversion formula between the elastic coefficient of elasticity coefficient is derived and the seaport container throughput relative to GDP relative to the three elements.
This paper analyzes the evolution process of the container system, combing the Japanese container throughput data comparison, Chinese, cause the United States and Japan container transportation industry development path and generate three container throughput difference. The relationship between coastal port container throughput in different areas and GDP is not the same, the relationship between coastal port container throughput and GDP is territorial the natural endowment, the development stage of industrialization, a comprehensive reflection of the mode of the economic growth and division of labor in the chain of global economic integration. And it is pointed out that the position: Chinese harbor container transportation industry took a completely different from the developed countries (regions) of the road of development.
In order to predict the container throughput in China's coastal ports, using time series causality and established the index model for coastal port container throughput associated with the GDP method. The model uses the GDP data to replace the time as explanatory variables, in order to overcome the nonlinear curve instability, we take the natural logarithm of container throughput time series and GDP time series, and then uses the HP filter technology, with the trend component of container throughput time series trend component fitting of GDP time series, established to reflect the GDP index model and the coastal port container throughput causation. Put forward our country GDP in an average annual growth rate of 7.5% in 2020, China's coastal port container throughput up to 230 million 800 thousand TEU. GDP in China with an average annual growth rate of 6%, in 2020 China's coastal port container. The throughput will reach 225 million 800 thousand TEU. and our country's GDP increases at an average annual rate of 4.5%. The container throughput of China's coastal ports reached 219 million 500 thousand TEU. in 2020.
Trunk port container throughput in China determines the trend of container throughput, forecast of China's main port container throughput is on China's coastal port container throughput results interpretation. Our growth trend rate according to the trunk port container throughput, respectively, using Logistic model, exponential model and combination forecasting method in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou. Tianjin, Ningbo - Zhoushan, Qingdao, Dalian and Xiamen 8 trunk port container throughput forecast, the forecast results show that 2014-2020 years of trunk port container throughput growth rate showed a gradually decreasing trend, steady growth in GDP normalization conditions, trunk port container throughput growth trend has slowed. Compared with 2013 container throughput and container throughput in 2020 in the country accounted for the square and conclude that our container port system from monopoly to competition The long-term trend of type development.
At present, perplexing world economic situation, China is promoting the transformation of the factor driven to innovation driven economic development mode and the adjustment of economic structure. China as a "world factory" position will be changed. Scientific prediction is important for the realization of China's port container port reasonable layout and planning.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F552;F224;F124

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