本文關(guān)鍵詞： 運(yùn)輸經(jīng)濟(jì) 城際鐵路 客運(yùn)需求 彈性系數(shù) BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),城市群經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展壯大,使得城際客運(yùn)需求快速增長(zhǎng),對(duì)城際客運(yùn)方式的發(fā)展提出了更高的要求�？瓦\(yùn)需求彈性系數(shù)作為描述客運(yùn)需求對(duì)運(yùn)輸價(jià)格變動(dòng)敏感程度的重要指標(biāo),可以有效體現(xiàn)人們對(duì)城際鐵路開通需求的迫切程度和對(duì)城際鐵路開通的敏感性。通過(guò)對(duì)城際客運(yùn)需求彈性進(jìn)行分析研究,不僅可以充分把握城際客運(yùn)需求分布特征和變化規(guī)律,同時(shí)對(duì)優(yōu)化城際鐵路資源配置,科學(xué)指導(dǎo)鐵路路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃布局,促進(jìn)城際鐵路與城市群的良性互動(dòng)等具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。因此,本文基于交通運(yùn)輸經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的需求理論,通過(guò)對(duì)城際鐵路開通初期的客運(yùn)需求彈性系數(shù)與城市群社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響因素的關(guān)系及生成機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)客運(yùn)需求彈性系數(shù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的目的。首先,論文對(duì)城際鐵路的概念、服務(wù)范圍與功能定位進(jìn)行介紹,并對(duì)城際鐵路與城市群的相互作用、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展及匹配類型進(jìn)行了闡述,最后,對(duì)城際客運(yùn)需求生成機(jī)理與影響因素進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析,指出城市群社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展是城際鐵路建設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)和城際客運(yùn)需求的根本來(lái)源。其次,根據(jù)運(yùn)輸經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)供需理論,結(jié)合城際鐵路開通前后兩地綜合客運(yùn)出行成本的變動(dòng),通過(guò)廣義費(fèi)用函數(shù)和改進(jìn)后的Logit分擔(dān)率模型,計(jì)算出已開通城際鐵路地區(qū)的城際客運(yùn)需求價(jià)格彈性系數(shù),并以滬杭城際鐵路開通為例進(jìn)行了計(jì)算。然后,運(yùn)用主成分分析法對(duì)18個(gè)已開通城際鐵路城市對(duì)的20個(gè)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)指標(biāo)和5個(gè)復(fù)合指標(biāo)提取篩選,綜合得到8個(gè)變量作為城際客運(yùn)需求彈性系數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)分析模型的輸入變量;隨后,用已開通城際鐵路城市對(duì)的8個(gè)變量和對(duì)應(yīng)的彈性系數(shù)作為樣本訓(xùn)練BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,運(yùn)用隨機(jī)森林算法進(jìn)一步分析各因素的重要性,深入挖掘潛在客運(yùn)需求與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的深層次關(guān)系。最后,以即將開通的京張城際鐵路為例,利用構(gòu)建的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型預(yù)測(cè)其需求彈性系數(shù),驗(yàn)證了模型的可靠性,并對(duì)京張城際鐵路建設(shè)時(shí)期的城市發(fā)展重點(diǎn)提供一定的建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the development of city economic growth, the rapid growth of passenger demand, put forward higher requirements on the development of intercity passenger mode. As passenger demand elasticity coefficient to describe the passenger needs for transportation price changes an important indicator of sensitivity, can effectively the people of intercity railway opened degree of urgency and sensitivity to Inter City railway. The intercity passenger demand elasticity analysis, not only can fully grasp the passenger demand and change distribution, and to optimize the allocation of resources of intercity railway network planning, scientific guidance for the layout of the railway, has very important practical significance to promote the intercity railway and city group interaction. Thus, the traffic transport economics demand theory based on the early opening of intercity railway passenger demand elasticity coefficient and the city community Will the economic relationship between influence factors and formation mechanism are analyzed, and ultimately to predict the elastic coefficient of passenger demand. First, the intercity railway service concept, scope and function are introduced, and the interaction between the intercity rail and city group, coordinated development and matching types are described, finally, to a systematic analysis on the influencing factors and formation mechanism of intercity passenger demand, pointed out that the social and economic development of the city group is the ultimate source of intercity railway construction foundation and intercity passenger demand. Secondly, according to the transport economics theory of supply and demand, combined with the intercity railway opened between before and after comprehensive passenger travel cost changes, the generalized cost function and improved Logit sharing rate model, compute the opening of intercity passenger transport demand price elasticity coefficient of intercity railway area, and to the Shanghai Hangzhou intercity railway opened as an example The line is calculated. Then, using principal component analysis of the 18 intercity railway to the city has opened 20 base of social economic indicators and 5 composite index extraction screening, obtained 8 variables as intercity passenger demand elasticity coefficient forecast analysis of input variables of the model; then, with the elasticity coefficient of intercity railway has been opened to the city the 8 variables and the corresponding BP neural network model as the training sample, using the random forest algorithm to further analyze the importance of various factors, the relationship between deep dig potential passenger demand and the development of economy and society. Finally, the Beijing Zhangjiakou intercity railway will be opened as an example, the forecast of demand elasticity coefficient by using the BP neural network model the reliability of the model was verified, and provides some suggestions on the development of the city during the construction of the Beijing Zhangjiakou Intercity Railway focus.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F532.8

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