發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-10 01:20

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)方法研究　出處：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 公路BT項(xiàng)目 回購(gòu)價(jià) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策 投資回報(bào) 蒙特卡羅模擬

【摘要】：我國(guó)對(duì)公路項(xiàng)目等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投入持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，但有限的政府資金已成為制約基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的“瓶頸”。近年來，在公路項(xiàng)目建設(shè)中廣泛采用的BT模式在吸引社會(huì)資金參與公路項(xiàng)目建設(shè)、緩解政府的資金壓力和不斷提高路網(wǎng)水平和服務(wù)功能上發(fā)揮了重要作用。在公路項(xiàng)目BT投融資模式中，確定回購(gòu)價(jià)是最核心的內(nèi)容之一。公路BT項(xiàng)目由于其投資金額大，工程技術(shù)復(fù)雜，參與主體關(guān)系復(fù)雜，建設(shè)和回購(gòu)周期長(zhǎng)等大量不確定因素影響，使BT回購(gòu)價(jià)確定具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性。本文從公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)價(jià)受各種不確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素影響角度，研究公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)問題，對(duì)于完善公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)機(jī)制、進(jìn)而完善BT項(xiàng)目定價(jià)理論和促進(jìn)公路建設(shè)投融資持續(xù)發(fā)展，都具有主要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和理論價(jià)值。 本文是從投資者的角度分析研究公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)問題，研究了現(xiàn)有公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)定價(jià)相關(guān)問題和不足，提出了建立基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的回購(gòu)價(jià)模型的必要性。首先研究了公路BT模式和回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)的不確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征，研究了公路BT模式回購(gòu)價(jià)的組成和影響機(jī)理。然后深入研究了影響公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素和影響關(guān)系，建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素集；在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立了模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)遞階辨識(shí)模型。其次根據(jù)公路BT模式回購(gòu)價(jià)的特點(diǎn)，構(gòu)造了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響關(guān)系圖，建立了具體的公路BT回購(gòu)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策模型，并對(duì)模型中各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變量的特征和取值定價(jià)方法，與現(xiàn)行的定價(jià)模型進(jìn)行對(duì)比研究；本論文從回購(gòu)成本的角度出發(fā)，采用蒙特卡羅模擬的方法，得到回購(gòu)成本的波動(dòng)范圍及概率分布曲線，結(jié)合該曲線投資者可進(jìn)行回購(gòu)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策決策，該成果為同時(shí)為政府和公路BT項(xiàng)目投資人協(xié)商回購(gòu)價(jià)，提供了合理科學(xué)的依據(jù)。最后，通過建立VaR模型確定公路BT項(xiàng)目的投資回報(bào)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益，，為BT項(xiàng)目投資人提供了對(duì)公路BT項(xiàng)目投資效率評(píng)價(jià)參考和決策判據(jù)。 本文基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析建立的回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)模型在回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)方法上是一種新的探索，完善和豐富了公路BT項(xiàng)目回購(gòu)價(jià)定價(jià)理論，同時(shí)為投資者參與BT融資項(xiàng)目作出合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策和保障自身的利益提供了借鑒。
[Abstract]:China's highway infrastructure construction projects such as investment continues to grow, but the limited government funds has become the bottleneck of the infrastructure construction of the "bottleneck". In recent years, widely used in highway construction projects of BT pattern to attract social capital to participate in the highway project construction, alleviate the government's financial pressure and continuously improve the network level and service function played an important role. In the mode of investment and financing of highway project in BT, determine the repurchase price is one of the core content. The highway BT project because of its large amount of investment, construction technology is complex, involved in the main complex relationship, construction and repurchase period is long and a lot of uncertain factors, which determine the risk of repurchase price of BT this article from the highway BT project. The repurchase price is affected by many uncertain factors affecting the risk point of view, research of highway BT project repurchase pricing problem, to improve the repurchase price of the pricing mechanism for highway BT project, It is of great practical significance and theoretical value to further improve the BT project pricing theory and promote the sustainable development of highway construction investment and financing.
This paper is the analysis of highway BT project repurchase pricing problem from the perspective of investors, on the problems related to the repurchase pricing of existing highway BT project and the insufficiency, puts forward the necessity of establishing the repurchase price model based on the risk analysis. Firstly studies the uncertain risk characteristics of highway BT model and the repurchase price pricing mechanism, composition and influence study on the highway BT model. The repurchase price risk factors and effect relationship and in-depth study of the impact of highway BT project repurchase price, established risk factors set; on this basis, a hierarchical fuzzy risk identification model. Secondly according to the characteristics of highway repurchase price of BT mode, constructs the risk influence diagram, establish highway BT repurchase price risk decision model of concrete, and the risk variables in the model characteristics and value pricing method, compared with the current pricing model; this paper from the back The purchase cost perspective, by using the method of Monte Carlo simulation, get the fluctuation range of return cost and probability distribution curve, the curve can be combined with investors repurchase price risk decision-making, the results at the same time as the government and highway BT project investor negotiation repurchase price, provide a reasonable scientific basis. Finally, determine the highway BT project return on investment through the establishment of VaR model for BT project risk return, investors provided for highway BT project investment efficiency evaluation reference and decision criterion.
The repurchase pricing model is established to analyze the risk based on the repurchase price pricing method is a new exploration, improve and enrich the highway BT project repurchase pricing theory, and safeguard their own interests and provide reference for investors to participate in the BT project financing risk decision made reasonable.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F542;F285

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本文編號(hào)：1403303