【摘要】： 死因監(jiān)測工作是了解居民死亡水平和死因順位,掌握居民健康影響因素,為政府制定衛(wèi)生政策、評價衛(wèi)生工作質(zhì)量和效果的科學依據(jù),也是研究人口自然變動規(guī)律的一個重要內(nèi)容。其中死因監(jiān)測點的確定是一個首要的問題。本研究以陜西省死因監(jiān)測點的確定為例,以陜西省107個縣(市,區(qū))級單元作為抽樣框架,進行以下幾部分的研究: 1.制定不同的抽樣設計方案。結(jié)合中國實際情況,引入了不等概率抽樣方法,建立可行的四種抽樣方法,即:完全隨機整群抽樣、分層整群抽樣、不等概率整群抽樣、不等概率分層整群抽樣,分別以總?cè)丝诘?%、10%、15%作為抽樣比例,組合成為十二種抽樣方案,每個方案都進行計算機重復抽樣100次。 2.計算不同抽樣方案的抽樣精確度,結(jié)果表明:完全隨機整群抽樣抽樣比例大于10%就可對總體有較好的代表性;分層整群抽樣抽樣比例大于15%就可對總體有較好的代表性;不等概率整群抽樣抽樣比例大于15%就可對總體有較好的代表性;不等概率分層整群抽樣抽樣比例大于15%就可對總體有較好的代表性。 3.計算并比較不同抽樣方案的平均抽樣標準差。結(jié)果表明:地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值均數(shù)的標準差:1)抽樣比例除5%外,隨著抽樣比例的增大(從10%到15%),地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值標準差的均數(shù)反而減小。2)不同的抽樣方法中,地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值標準差的均數(shù)以不等概率分層整群抽樣最小。死亡率均數(shù)的標準差表明:不同的抽樣方法中,以不等概率分層整群抽樣的標準差最小。 4.計算并比較不同抽樣方案的設計效率,結(jié)果表明:地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值:1)完全隨機整群抽樣中:不同抽樣比例的地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值設計效率的均數(shù)是相同的,都是1;除抽樣比例為5%,隨著抽樣比例的增大(從10%到15%),地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值設計效率的均數(shù)是減小的。2)不同的抽樣方法中,以不等概率分層整群抽樣的地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值設計效率的均數(shù)最小。死亡率:1)完全隨機整群抽樣中,不同抽樣比例的死亡率設計效率的均數(shù)是相同的,都是1;除抽樣比例為5%,隨著抽樣比例的增大(從10%到15%),死亡率設計效率的均數(shù)是減小的。2)不同的抽樣方法中,以不等概率分層整群抽樣的死亡率設計效率的均數(shù)最小。 5.提出最佳抽樣方案是不等概率分層整群抽樣。 本研究的主要創(chuàng)新點主要包括以下三點:(1)提出并將不等概率抽樣應用于有明確抽樣框架的總體的抽樣研究中。(2)重復抽樣計算并比較了每種抽樣方案的平均抽樣誤差、抽樣精確度及設計效率。(3)評價并提出了有明確抽樣框架的總體的最佳抽樣方案是不等概率分層整群抽樣。
[Abstract]:The cause of death surveillance is the scientific basis for understanding the level and order of death, mastering the influencing factors of residents' health, making health policy for the government, and evaluating the quality and effect of health work. It is also an important content of studying the law of natural change of population. Among them, the determination of the cause of death monitoring point is a primary problem. In this study, the determination of cause of death monitoring points in Shaanxi Province as an example, with 107 county (city, district) units as sampling frame, the following parts of the study: 1. Develop different sampling schemes. According to the actual situation in China, this paper introduces the unequal probability sampling method, and establishes four feasible sampling methods, that is, complete random cluster sampling, stratified cluster sampling, unequal probability stratified cluster sampling. Taking 5 / 10 / 15% of the total population as the sampling ratio, it is combined into twelve sampling schemes, each of which is sampled 100 times by computer. 2. The sampling accuracy of different sampling schemes is calculated. The results show that the complete random cluster sampling ratio is more than 10%, the stratified cluster sampling ratio is more than 15%, and the stratified cluster sampling ratio is better than 15%. When the proportion of unequal probability cluster sampling is more than 15%, it can be better representative of the whole population, and the proportion of unequal probability stratified cluster sampling more than 15% can be better representative of the whole population. 3. The average sampling standard deviation of different sampling schemes is calculated and compared. The results show that: 1) with the increase of sampling ratio (from 10% to 15%), the mean of standard deviation of regional GDP decreases with the increase of sampling proportion except 5%. 2) in different sampling methods, The mean of standard deviation of regional GDP is minimum by stratified cluster sampling with unequal probability. The standard deviation of the mean of mortality shows that the standard deviation of stratified cluster sampling with unequal probability is the smallest among the different sampling methods. 4. The design efficiency of different sampling schemes is calculated and compared. The results show that: 1) in the complete random cluster sampling, the average of the design efficiency of the regional GDP with different sampling proportions is the same, all of which are 1; Except for the sampling ratio of 5, as the sampling ratio increases (from 10% to 15%), the average of the design efficiency of the region's gross domestic product decreases. 2) in different sampling methods, The mean of design efficiency of regional GDP with stratified cluster sampling with unequal probability is the smallest. Mortality: 1) in complete random cluster sampling, the mean of mortality design efficiency of different sampling proportions is the same, all of them are 1; With the exception of a sampling ratio of 5, the average of the mortality design efficiency decreases as the sampling ratio increases (from 10% to 15%). 2) in different sampling methods, The mean of mortality design efficiency of stratified cluster sampling with unequal probability is the smallest. 5. The best sampling scheme is stratified cluster sampling with unequal probability. The main innovations of this study are as follows: (1) unequal probability sampling is proposed and applied to the sampling study with a clear sampling frame. (2) repeated sampling calculation and comparison are made for each sampling scheme. Average sampling error, (3) the best sampling scheme with definite sampling frame is stratified cluster sampling with unequal probability.
【學位授予單位】：第四軍醫(yī)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：R311

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