【摘要】：熱點切換,板塊輪動是股市中一個常見的現(xiàn)象,投資者夢寐以求的是能夠預先尋找到未來可能有優(yōu)良表現(xiàn)的板塊,提前布局。本文研究的主要目的如下：希望通過較為系統(tǒng)的方法,確定明星板塊與股指指數(shù)是否具有一些獨特的關系,也就是能否從明星板塊與股指之間的相關關系中尋找到一些蛛絲馬跡；此外由于我國目前特殊的T+1交易制度,在發(fā)現(xiàn)一個明星板塊之后,能否具備投資價值,還得看該板塊持續(xù)為明星的時間,因此本文還系統(tǒng)研究在不同的市場環(huán)境之下,從統(tǒng)計上來看明星板塊的持續(xù)時間,究竟具有什么規(guī)律。本文安排如下,首先第一章對我國股市的發(fā)展背景進行了回顧以及本文研究的出發(fā)點,并對我國的交易制度進行了簡單的介紹。第二章簡析了板塊輪動與經(jīng)濟周期的關系,分為國外的經(jīng)濟周期和國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟周期,闡述了我國的板塊輪動與經(jīng)濟周期的關系。第三章對投資分析做了重點介紹,首先介紹了有效市場理論和分形市場理論,并對它們之間的關系和區(qū)別進行了整理。然后對當今流行的投資策略進行系統(tǒng)的總結和分類,最后對技術分析做了重點介紹,介紹了道氏理論、波浪理論以及板塊輪動理論。第四章是本文的重點,對明星板塊進行了全面深入的分析,然后又用聚類分析對板塊進行分類。最后得出我國市場存在著板塊輪動速度過快以及投機現(xiàn)象,明星板塊的概率較低,如果單獨考慮一個板塊時,明星效應的時間會延長,也就說連續(xù)三天漲幅為正的概率大增�？偟膩碚f我國股市雖然有明顯的板塊輪動現(xiàn)象,但是板塊輪動頻率比較快,投資者如果追隨板塊輪動進行投資風險較大。
[Abstract]:Hot spot switching, plate rotation is a common phenomenon in the stock market, investors' dream is to be able to find the future may have a good performance of the plate, ahead of schedule. The main purposes of this study are as follows: we hope to determine whether there is some unique relationship between the star plate and the stock index through a more systematic method. That is to say, whether we can find some clues from the relationship between the star plate and the stock index; In addition, due to China's current special T-1 trading system, after the discovery of a star plate, whether or not it has investment value, it also depends on the time that the plate continues to be a star, so this paper also systematically studies under different market conditions, From the statistical point of view, the duration of the star plate, after all, what is the law. This paper is arranged as follows. The first chapter reviews the development background of China's stock market and the starting point of this paper, and gives a brief introduction to the trading system of our country. The second chapter briefly analyzes the relationship between plate rotation and economic cycle, divided into foreign economic cycle and domestic economic cycle, and expounds the relationship between plate rotation and economic cycle in China. The third chapter focuses on the analysis of investment. Firstly, it introduces the efficient market theory and fractal market theory, and sorts out the relationship and difference between them. Then it makes a systematic summary and classification of the current popular investment strategies, and finally introduces the technical analysis, including Dow's theory, wave theory and plate rotation theory. The fourth chapter is the focus of this paper, the star plate is thoroughly analyzed, and then cluster analysis is used to classify the plate. Finally, it is concluded that there are plate rotation speed and speculation phenomenon in our market, the probability of star plate is low, if a single plate is considered, the time of star effect will be prolonged, that is to say, the probability of positive increase for three days in a row will be greatly increased, that is, if we consider a plate alone, the time of star effect will be prolonged. In general, although the stock market of our country has obvious plate rotation phenomenon, but the plate rotation frequency is relatively fast, if the investor follows the plate rotation to carry on the investment risk is bigger.
【學位授予單位】：海南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51

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