【摘要】：本文是從行為公司金融的角度出發(fā)，以管理者存在過(guò)度自信的視角，來(lái)探討管理者過(guò)度自信對(duì)中國(guó)上市公司內(nèi)外部融資偏好的影響，并且提出一些有針對(duì)性的建議。 在分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究結(jié)論之后，本文結(jié)合我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的特殊性，選取2007-2012年在上海和深圳證券交易所掛牌交易且發(fā)行了全部A股的上市公司（剔除一些不符合要求的公司）為研究對(duì)象，在影響管理者過(guò)度自信的種種因素中選取“所處行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”、“資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率”、“公司的資產(chǎn)規(guī)�！�、“凈資產(chǎn)收益率”、“管理者持股比例”、“管理者薪酬比例”、“營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率”及“凈財(cái)富水平”這8個(gè)指標(biāo)作為影響管理者過(guò)度自信的主要和直接因素，進(jìn)行主成分分析確定權(quán)數(shù)，得出一個(gè)新的衡量高管過(guò)度自信的綜合指標(biāo)。與以往學(xué)者單獨(dú)使用一個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)來(lái)表示高管過(guò)度自信相比，，這個(gè)綜合指標(biāo)更全面，更具有說(shuō)服力，是一個(gè)全新的變量，這也是本研究的一個(gè)創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，分為管理者過(guò)度自信和管理者適度自信兩個(gè)研究樣本，建立多元回歸模型實(shí)證分析在管理者自信程度不同時(shí)對(duì)公司內(nèi)外部融資偏好的影響。 通過(guò)理論的分析和實(shí)證的研究，本文得到如下結(jié)論：中國(guó)上市公司管理者過(guò)度自信與管理者適度自信相比，過(guò)度自信的管理者會(huì)高估公司投資項(xiàng)目未來(lái)所能產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量的程度也比較強(qiáng)，當(dāng)公司需要為其投資項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行融資時(shí)，過(guò)度自信的高層管理者會(huì)較多地偏向于利用內(nèi)部融資，因而公司投資與現(xiàn)金流之間的敏感度有所增強(qiáng)。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of behavioral corporate finance, this paper discusses the influence of managers' overconfidence on the internal and external financing preferences of Chinese listed companies from the perspective of managers' overconfidence, and puts forward some targeted suggestions. After analyzing the research conclusions of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper combines the particularity of our country's capital market. Selected listed companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2012 and issued all A-shares (excluding some companies that do not meet the requirements) as the research subjects, Among the factors that affect managers' overconfidence, they are "risk in industry", "ratio of assets to liabilities", "size of assets", "rate of return on net assets", "proportion of managers holding shares", "proportion of salary of managers", "operating income growth rate" and "net wealth level" are the main and direct factors that affect managers' overconfidence. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to determine weights, and a new comprehensive index to measure executive overconfidence is obtained. Compared with the previous scholars using a single financial indicator to express executive overconfidence, this comprehensive index is more comprehensive, more persuasive, and is a new variable, which is also an innovation of this study. On this basis, it is divided into two research samples: manager overconfidence and manager moderate confidence, and the empirical analysis of the influence of different degree of manager confidence on internal and external financing preference is made by establishing multiple regression model. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper draws the following conclusions: the overconfidence of managers in Chinese listed companies is compared with the moderate confidence of managers. Overconfident managers overestimate the extent of cash flow that companies can generate in the future. When companies need to finance their investment projects, overconfident senior managers tend to take advantage of internal financing. As a result, the sensitivity between the company's investment and cash flow has increased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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