【摘要】：縱觀國(guó)內(nèi)外歷次房地產(chǎn)泡沫，發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)普遍現(xiàn)象：無論是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家還是新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家，在房地產(chǎn)泡沫形成過程中，都顯示出銀行信貸擴(kuò)張與房地產(chǎn)泡沫之間的高度相關(guān)性。結(jié)合我國(guó)現(xiàn)狀本文提出了緊密相關(guān)的一個(gè)問題：銀行信貸與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間的因果關(guān)系到底是什么樣的?是銀行信貸的增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上升,還是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上升導(dǎo)致了銀行信貸的增加,再或者是銀行信貸與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格互為因果關(guān)系？ 筆者選取我國(guó)2004年1季度至2013年2季度的38組季度數(shù)據(jù)，，通過格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與銀行貸款之間的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。 實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明：銀行貸款是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的格蘭杰原因；房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格是貸款資產(chǎn)惡化率的格蘭杰原因；銀行信貸與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與貸款資產(chǎn)惡化率之間存在著長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系；銀行信貸的增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)上升，房?jī)r(jià)的上升又會(huì)導(dǎo)致貸款資產(chǎn)惡化率提高。這種長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系的根源就在于銀行信貸，只有控制銀行信貸的擴(kuò)張才可以有效地抑制房?jī)r(jià)的上漲。 該研究結(jié)論普遍適用于房地產(chǎn)泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，更能促進(jìn)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)與銀行信貸體系協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。對(duì)從銀行信貸角度抑制房地產(chǎn)泡沫、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有著重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Looking at all the real estate bubbles at home and abroad, we find a common phenomenon: both developed countries and newly industrialized countries show a high correlation between bank credit expansion and real estate bubbles in the process of real estate bubble formation. Combined with the current situation in China, this paper puts forward a closely related question: what is the causal relationship between bank credit and real estate prices? Is the growth of bank credit leading to the rise of real estate prices, or the rise of real estate prices lead to an increase in bank credit, or is the relationship between bank credit and real estate prices causality? The author selects 38 groups of quarterly data from the first quarter of 2004 to the second quarter of 2013 and empirically tests the causal relationship between real estate prices and bank loans through Granger causality test. The empirical results show that bank loan is the Granger cause of real estate price, real estate price is Granger reason of loan asset deterioration rate, bank credit and real estate price, There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate price and loan asset deterioration rate; the increase of bank credit will lead to the rise of house price, and the rise of house price will lead to the increase of loan assets deterioration rate. The root of this long-term equilibrium relationship lies in bank credit. Only by controlling the expansion of bank credit can house prices rise effectively. This conclusion is generally applicable to the risk management of real estate bubble and can promote the harmonious development of real estate market and bank credit system. From the bank credit point of view to curb the real estate bubble, promote economic development has an important practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.45;F299.23

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