本文關(guān)鍵詞： 市場(chǎng)預(yù)期 住房抵押貸款 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)　出處：《湘潭大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，伴隨著房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格不斷攀升，多地隱現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)泡沫已是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)，特別是2007年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)的爆發(fā)敲響了警鐘，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的大幅波動(dòng)容易產(chǎn)生金融危機(jī)，這對(duì)于我國(guó)主要依賴銀行信貸支持的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，更要注重房?jī)r(jià)預(yù)期可能對(duì)居民生活帶來(lái)的沖擊和對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以防擾亂我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的穩(wěn)健步伐。 本文首先從理論上分析了市場(chǎng)預(yù)期下住房抵押貸款與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響，其次結(jié)合中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和銀行信貸兩者聯(lián)系越來(lái)越緊密的現(xiàn)狀，從市場(chǎng)預(yù)期角度探討兩者之間的關(guān)系，并構(gòu)建三者的理論模型，然后在實(shí)證分析中，建立30個(gè)省（市）面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)和住房抵押貸款的影響關(guān)系進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)分析，從分析結(jié)果可知市場(chǎng)預(yù)期、住房抵押貸款與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)三者之間存在相互影響的關(guān)系，并且房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)初期對(duì)銀行信貸產(chǎn)生積極作用，長(zhǎng)期則不利于銀行信貸的穩(wěn)定性，影響程度會(huì)隨著時(shí)間的流逝而逐漸減小。最后，結(jié)合前文的分析和我國(guó)的國(guó)情，本文提出有必要從房?jī)r(jià)預(yù)期管理、銀行住房抵押貸款管理和住房市場(chǎng)管理三個(gè)方面入手，，有效降低房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)體系穩(wěn)定性帶來(lái)的不良影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rising of real estate prices, it is an indisputable fact that many real estate bubbles have emerged. Especially, the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 sounded the alarm that the large fluctuations in real estate prices are liable to produce financial crises. For the real estate market in China, which mainly relies on bank credit support, we should pay more attention to the impact that housing prices are expected to bring to residents' lives and the risks they bring to the real estate industry. To prevent the disruption of our financial markets and economic development of the steady pace. Firstly, this paper theoretically analyzes the impact of housing mortgage loan and real estate price fluctuation under market expectation, and then combines the current situation that China's real estate market and bank credit are more and more closely linked. This paper discusses the relationship between the two from the perspective of market expectation, and constructs three theoretical models. Then, in the empirical analysis, 30 provincial (municipal) panel data models are established to carry out long-term dynamic analysis on the impact of housing price fluctuations and housing mortgage loans. From the results of the analysis, we can see that the market expectation, the relationship between the housing mortgage loan and the real estate price fluctuation has the mutual influence, and the real estate price fluctuation has the positive effect on the bank credit in the early stage. The long-term is not conducive to the stability of bank credit, the impact will gradually decrease with the passage of time. Finally, combined with the previous analysis and China's national conditions, this paper proposes that it is necessary to manage the expected housing prices. The bank housing mortgage loan management and housing market management can effectively reduce the negative impact of house price fluctuation on the stability of China's macroeconomic system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.45;F299.23

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