本文關(guān)鍵詞： 會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性 證券分析師 盈余預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性 盈余預(yù)測分歧度　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：證券分析師主要從事證券研究,是證券市場中最重要的"翻譯官"。其主要工作是通過對市場中大量錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的信息的篩選,運(yùn)用自身理論基礎(chǔ)、實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)等進(jìn)行整合分析,其主要價(jià)值體現(xiàn)在其分析預(yù)測報(bào)告中針對不同信息使用者的需求公布的分析、預(yù)測、評價(jià)。證券分析師能夠向市場反應(yīng)證券真實(shí)價(jià)值的價(jià)格信息,進(jìn)而減輕因信息不對稱所帶來的投資者等利益關(guān)聯(lián)方的劣勢,使證券市場價(jià)格趨近其真實(shí)價(jià)值,增強(qiáng)市場進(jìn)行資源配置的有效性。由于上市公司財(cái)務(wù)信息是證券分析師開展工作利用的基礎(chǔ)信息,而會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性是體現(xiàn)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)信息質(zhì)量的重要標(biāo)準(zhǔn)之一,通過分別對會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性與證券分析師預(yù)測行為的計(jì)量探求兩者之間的關(guān)系,期望通過實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)通過提高會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性,提升證券分析師預(yù)測行為的有效性的方法和途徑。首先,對國內(nèi)外會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性與證券分析師預(yù)測行為的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行整理分析,以信息不對稱理論、契約理論、委托代理理論和交易成本理論為基礎(chǔ),采取證券分析師跟隨人數(shù)、盈余預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性、盈余預(yù)測分歧度三個(gè)指標(biāo)計(jì)量證券分析師預(yù)測行為,分別分析了會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性對此三方面的影響并提出研究假設(shè)。其次,以2004至2015年1339家中國資本市場A股主板非金融保險(xiǎn)業(yè)上市公司為研究樣本,采用Basu(1997)的穩(wěn)健性模型對De Franco,Kothari和Verdi(2011)提出的以計(jì)量不同公司之間會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性為目的的模型進(jìn)行修正,結(jié)合Lang etal.(2010)、Yip etal.(2012)與 Brochetetal.(2013)在計(jì)量中采用的以四年16個(gè)季度為期,滾動(dòng)計(jì)量會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性的方法,考察了此期間內(nèi)會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性及證券分析師預(yù)測行為的變化趨勢,研究了會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性對證券分析師盈余預(yù)測行為的影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,證券分析師跟蹤數(shù)量與會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性呈顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,證券分析師盈余預(yù)測的分歧度在一定程度上與會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性呈顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系。這表明通過加強(qiáng)法制建設(shè)、完善會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則與會(huì)計(jì)制度提升會(huì)計(jì)信息可比性來促進(jìn)市場資源有效配置是可行的。
[Abstract]:Securities analysts are mainly engaged in securities research and are the most important "translators" in the securities market. Their main work is to use their own theoretical basis through the screening of a large number of complicated information in the market. Practical experience and other integrated analysis, its main value is reflected in its analysis and forecast report for the needs of different information users published analysis, prediction. Evaluation. The securities analyst can reflect the price information of the real value of the securities to the market, and then reduce the disadvantage of the related parties such as the investors brought about by the asymmetry of the information, and make the price of the securities market approach its real value. Because the financial information of listed companies is the basic information for securities analysts to carry out their work. The comparability of accounting information is one of the important standards to reflect the quality of financial information of listed companies. Through the measurement of the comparability of accounting information and the forecasting behavior of securities analysts, the relationship between them is explored. It is expected to find ways and means to improve the effectiveness of forecasting behavior of securities analysts by improving the comparability of accounting information through empirical research. First of all. Based on the information asymmetry theory, contract theory, principal-agent theory and transaction cost theory, the relevant literature on comparability of accounting information at home and abroad and the forecast behavior of securities analysts are analyzed. Stock analysts follow the number, earnings forecast accuracy, earnings forecast divergence of three indicators to measure the behavior of securities analysts. This paper analyzes the impact of comparability of accounting information on these three aspects and puts forward research hypotheses. Secondly. From 2004 to 2015, 1339 non-financial insurance companies listed on the A-share main board of China's capital market were selected as the research samples. The robust model of de Franco is used in this paper. The model proposed by Kothari and Verdi (2011) aims to measure the comparability of accounting information among different companies, combined with Lang etal.n.2010). Yip etal.b.n2012) and Brochetetal.nb2013) the method used in the measurement is to measure the comparability of accounting information over a period of four years and 16 quarters, on a rolling basis. This paper examines the trend of the comparability of accounting information and the forecasting behavior of securities analysts during this period, and studies the influence of comparability of accounting information on earnings forecasting behavior of securities analysts. The empirical results show that. There is a significant positive correlation between the number of securities analysts tracking and the comparability of accounting information. To some extent, the divergence degree of earnings forecast of securities analysts is positively correlated with the comparability of accounting information, which indicates that the construction of legal system should be strengthened. It is feasible to improve accounting standards and accounting system to promote the efficient allocation of market resources.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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