本文關(guān)鍵詞：信息不對稱下P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行為的實證研究　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸 信息不對稱 逆向選擇 道德風(fēng)險 借款成功率 借款利率

【摘要】：2005年3月,全球首家P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸公司Zopa在英國成立。Zopa的出現(xiàn)為當(dāng)今社會提供了一種全新的投融資渠道,這種新的模式得到廣大投融資者的認可,并逐漸參與其中。此后的10年間,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸得到了迅速發(fā)展,歐美幾家發(fā)展較好的P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸公司(Zopa、Prosper、Lending Club)也已獲得了主流投資機構(gòu)的垂青,其參與成員及成交規(guī)模得到了空前的發(fā)展。2006年以拍拍貸成立為標(biāo)志,我國P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺也開始快速發(fā)展。然而快速發(fā)展伴隨著各種問題及風(fēng)險的暴露：中間賬戶監(jiān)管缺位風(fēng)險、擔(dān)保與關(guān)聯(lián)風(fēng)險、非法集資風(fēng)險、財務(wù)披露風(fēng)險等逐漸受到關(guān)注,并引起相關(guān)部門的重視。銀監(jiān)會與人民銀行于2011年8月聯(lián)合發(fā)文,讓投資者警惕P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸風(fēng)險。文件表示,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸在我國發(fā)展尚處于起步階段,存在監(jiān)管及制度上的空白,提醒投資者關(guān)注受益的同時注意防范風(fēng)險,同時提示其他傳統(tǒng)金融機構(gòu)對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的防范,以規(guī)避風(fēng)險的跨界傳染。中國人民銀行行長周小川在2013年“兩會”答記者問時提到,新金融形式(如：P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸)對傳統(tǒng)金融機構(gòu)帶來的挑戰(zhàn)是不可避免的,然而我們需要做到的是如何面對及適應(yīng)這些新的發(fā)展及挑戰(zhàn),同時,這些創(chuàng)新模式不可避免地會帶來相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險,因此我們要加快步伐學(xué)習(xí),及早地吸取經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn),不斷地更新規(guī)章制度和監(jiān)管標(biāo)準(zhǔn),這樣就能使整個金融行業(yè)保持一個建行的發(fā)展方向。上到各個監(jiān)管機構(gòu)、下到廣大投資者都開始重視P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的各方面信息進入大眾視野,并得到深入地討論和研究。 P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的發(fā)展正是融合互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)與思想,而誕生的一種新的金融模式,突破的傳統(tǒng)民間金融中熟人社會的限制,在一定程度上滿足了借貸雙方的需求。P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸(Peer-to-Peer)簡稱“人人貸”,是指貸款人和借款人通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)中介平臺進行資金借貸的行為,其中網(wǎng)絡(luò)中介平臺作為服務(wù)方,撮合借貸雙方進行信息交互、信息確認和其他能促進交易成功的服務(wù),然而僅作為中介服務(wù),不承擔(dān)資金借貸中的債務(wù)債權(quán)行為。具體的服務(wù)內(nèi)容包括：個人信息認定、投資咨詢、貸款審查、貸款追償?shù)鹊取?P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸與傳統(tǒng)金融機構(gòu)一樣,是連接借款人與貸款人的橋梁,然而作為一種新的機構(gòu),正獨立于正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)體系之外。作為新興的金融機構(gòu),在一定程度上,滿足了廣大投融資者的借貸需求。在“被遺忘的金融市場”做了普惠金融意義的事情。而其形成的市場化、信用、技術(shù)機制也對金融改革影響深遠。P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的出現(xiàn),不僅體現(xiàn)在技術(shù)手段上的革新(將金融與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)相結(jié)合),更改變了大眾對金融市場的認識,讓大眾對金融市場的有了更新的認識,體現(xiàn)了金融市場和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)結(jié)合后的巨大能量。在短短的幾年時間,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸不論從成交金額上還是參與人數(shù)上在國內(nèi)都有巨大的突破。平臺發(fā)展方面,2012年末,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺超過100家,成交金額方面,借貸余額超過100億,參與人數(shù)方面,總?cè)藬?shù)超過5萬人,若是加上尚未統(tǒng)計的P2P線下業(yè)務(wù),其成交金額和參與人數(shù)還將進一步增加。 在我國,相比于傳統(tǒng)的銀行貸款形式,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸呈現(xiàn)以下特點：借貸參與者的廣泛性、交易方式的靈活性和高效性、風(fēng)險性和收益雙高。綜上所述,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸滿足了市場需求,實現(xiàn)了社會效益,是普惠金融的有效補充,在很大程度上滿足了個人經(jīng)營消費貸款以及個人投資理財?shù)凝嫶笫袌鲂枨�。但是上述特點也包含如下三點：參與者廣泛,資金進出靈活,風(fēng)險較高。這三點構(gòu)成了監(jiān)管層最擔(dān)憂的問題,也是監(jiān)管技術(shù)上最難操作的方面。在P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸模式中,點對點的信息交換和資金流動帶來了相關(guān)參與者對風(fēng)險的擔(dān)憂,在這樣信息不對稱的環(huán)境下,融資者和投資者由此產(chǎn)生的逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險成為P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸運行的最大障礙,加之P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸運行目前還存在諸如法律監(jiān)管缺失、政府監(jiān)管空白等,從而導(dǎo)致其低借款成功率、高借款利率以及貸款逾期等現(xiàn)象的進一步惡化。 本文研究目的在于通過對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行為及其借款成功率及借款利率影響因素的研究,并提出相應(yīng)的解決方案,為我國P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行業(yè)的參與者與監(jiān)管者提供有價值的參考,從而讓其盡可能地發(fā)揮出其應(yīng)有的投融資作用,以此促進P2P行業(yè)的健康持續(xù)發(fā)展,增強我國金融市場的豐富性與多樣性。本文研究框架如下： 第一部分首先闡述選題背景及意義,同時對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸概念進行解釋,講述網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的關(guān)聯(lián)性。 第二部分對國內(nèi)外當(dāng)前著名的P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺進行簡要介紹,分別講述了Zopa、Lending Club、Prosper、拍拍貸、宜信、紅嶺創(chuàng)投的借貸模式,并對其進行了比較總結(jié),發(fā)現(xiàn)我國P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸在借鑒外國經(jīng)驗的同時,還進行本土創(chuàng)新,如引入第三方擔(dān)保公司等。最后整理以往學(xué)者對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的各項理論、實證研究的文獻,主要涉及以下三大研究領(lǐng)域：(1)P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺的研究；(2)P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的理論研究；(3)對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的實證研究,主要集中在對借款成功率及借款利率高低的影響因素進行實證分析。 第三部分主要是運用信息不對稱理論對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸進行研究,首先論述P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行業(yè)信息不對稱產(chǎn)生的原因,包括(1)網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)原因,借貸雙方在網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸過程中將各自的信息上傳至網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺上,然而由于網(wǎng)絡(luò)在“空間”或“時間”存在各種原因,使得信息接收方不能有效地對已有信息進行篩選和理解,從而導(dǎo)致了雙方的信息不對稱；(2)投機主義原因,網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸雙方在借貸過程中不會進行實質(zhì)性的面對面溝通,貸款者只能通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺上現(xiàn)有的信息進行判斷。因此,有的借款人就有會利用這種情況,包裝自己,欺騙貸款者,獲得借貸資金。其次,此部分還闡述在信息不對稱下P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險問題。逆向選擇下不僅產(chǎn)生高借款利率,同時還會存在信貸配給,使得一部分人獲得借款,而另一部分人未能成功獲得借款,導(dǎo)致較低借款成功率；同時,道德風(fēng)險的存在導(dǎo)致較低的借款成功率及較高的借款利率。 第四部分對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸低借款成功率及高借款利率影響因素進行模型設(shè)計,并根據(jù)前文的文獻綜述及理論研究做出相關(guān)假設(shè)及變量的選取,分別選取了個人信息、擔(dān)保信息、借款標(biāo)的信息三大基本變量,包括13個獨立變量,同時運用爬蟲程序在拍拍貸網(wǎng)站進行數(shù)據(jù)挖掘,在此基礎(chǔ)上進行數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計及描述,對進行第五部分的實證分析做鋪墊。 第五部分主要利用第四章的模型及統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),進行實證分析,分別研究借款成功率及借款利率的影響因素,并提出相對合理的解釋。實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)借款成功率影響因素方面：借款利率與借款成功率呈現(xiàn)非線性關(guān)系,借款人年齡、借入信用、借款成功次數(shù)、按期還款次數(shù)與借款成功率呈正向關(guān)系；借款流標(biāo)次數(shù)、借款期限與借款成功率呈反比關(guān)系,借款人流標(biāo)次數(shù)越多、借款期限越長,貸款人出借意愿越低,其借款成功率越低；性別方面可以看出,女性與借款成功率呈正比,男性呈反比,表明女性的借款成功率相對于男性來說較高,且能促進借款成功率的提高；安全標(biāo)和非提現(xiàn)標(biāo)能增加貸款人的出借意愿,提高借款成功率；借出信用、借款金額對借款成功率沒有顯著影響。(2)借款利率方面：可以發(fā)現(xiàn)借款人年齡與借款利率呈正向關(guān)系,表明隨著年齡的增加,借款利率逐漸降低；性別方面可以看出,女性與借款利率呈反比,男性呈正比,表明女性的借款利率相對于男性來說較低。借入信用、借款成功次數(shù)、按期還款次數(shù)與借款利率呈反比關(guān)系；借款流標(biāo)次數(shù)、借款期限與借款利率呈正比關(guān)系,借款人流標(biāo)次數(shù)越多、借款期限越長,其借款利率越高；安全標(biāo)和非提現(xiàn)標(biāo)能有效降低借款利率；借出信用、借款金額對借款成功率沒有顯著影響。 第六部分,本節(jié)主要對全文進行總結(jié),并提出相關(guān)建議。分別總結(jié)了我國P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸借款成功率及借款利率的影響因素,同時根據(jù)信息不對稱理論產(chǎn)生的逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險現(xiàn)象,對我國P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行業(yè)發(fā)展提出相應(yīng)的意見,包括完善我國征信體系、加強風(fēng)險監(jiān)管、制定相關(guān)監(jiān)管法規(guī)、采取團隊貸款制度等,旨在為我國未來P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸發(fā)展提供一定的幫助,促進我國資本市場健康良好發(fā)展。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處是在以往學(xué)者的基礎(chǔ)上,論述P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸在信息不對稱下產(chǎn)生的逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險問題,并運用爬蟲程序,抓取P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺上的真實交易數(shù)據(jù),進行實證研究。
[Abstract]:In March , 2005 , Zoned , the world ' s first peer - to - peer network lending company , was founded in the UK . Peer - to - Peer ( P2P ) network lending ( Peer - to - Peer ) simply serves as intermediary service , does not bear the debt creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s creditor ' s rights in the fund borrowing . The specific service content includes : personal information identification , investment consulting , loan review , loan recovery , etc . P2P network lending , like traditional financial institutions , is a bridge connecting borrowers and lenders . However , as a new institution , it is independent of formal financial institutions . As an emerging financial institution , it has a profound impact on financial reform . In our country , compared with traditional bank loan form , P2P network lending presents the following characteristics : the broad nature of lending participant , flexibility and efficiency of transaction method , and high risk and benefit . In conclusion , P2P network lending meets the market demand , and it is the most difficult operation in supervision technology . In the P2P network lending mode , the reverse choice and moral hazard generated by financing and investors become the biggest obstacle of P2P network lending operation . In the P2P network lending mode , the phenomenon of low borrowing success rate , high borrowing interest rate and overdue loan is further aggravated . The aim of this paper is to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the P2P industry and enhance the richness and diversity of the financial market in our country through the research on the loan behavior of P2P network and its loan success ratio and the influence factors of the loan interest rate , so as to promote the healthy and sustained development of P2P industry and enhance the richness and diversity of the financial market in China . The research framework is as follows : In the first part , the background and significance of the topic selection are explained . Meanwhile , the concept of P2P network lending is explained , and the relationship between network lending and Internet finance is described . The second part gives a brief introduction to the current famous P2P network lending platform at home and abroad . The paper gives a brief introduction to the borrowing pattern of the P2P network lending platform , and concludes that P2P network lending in our country can draw lessons from foreign experience , and also carry out local innovation , such as introducing third - party security companies . Finally , we have studied the theory of P2P network lending platform , ( 2 ) the research on P2P network lending , ( 3 ) the empirical research on P2P network lending , and mainly focused on the empirical analysis of the factors that influence the success rate of the loan and the interest rate of the loan . The third part is mainly to study the P2P network loan using the asymmetric theory of information . Firstly , it discusses the causes of asymmetric information of P2P network lending industry , including ( 1 ) the network technology reason , the borrower can not effectively screen and understand the existing information in the course of network borrowing , so that the borrower can not effectively screen and understand the existing information . The fourth part makes a model design for the low - loan success rate and the high - borrowing rate influence factor of P2P network , and makes relevant assumptions and variables selection according to the literature review and theoretical study of the preceding text . Three basic variables including personal information , guarantee information and loan target information are selected respectively , including 13 independent variables , and data mining is carried out on the auction loan website by using the crawler program , and the data statistics and description are carried out on the basis , and the empirical analysis of the fifth part is made . The fifth part mainly uses the model and statistical data of the fourth chapter to carry on the empirical analysis to study the influence factors of the loan success rate and the loan interest rate , and put forward a relatively reasonable explanation . ( 2 ) In terms of borrowing interest rate : it can be found that the borrower ' s age is positively related to the loan interest rate , indicating that the loan interest rate decreases gradually with the increase of the age ; the gender can see that the loan interest rate of the female is inversely proportional to the loan interest rate ; the more the loan flow number , the loan term and the loan interest rate are in inverse proportion , the higher the loan frequency , the longer the loan term , the higher the loan interest rate of the borrower ; In the sixth part , this section summarizes the full text , and puts forward relevant suggestions . It summarizes the influence factors of the success rate and the loan interest rate of the P2P network in our country . At the same time , according to the adverse selection and moral hazard phenomenon generated by the information asymmetry theory , this paper puts forward corresponding opinions on the development of the P2P network lending industry in our country , including perfecting the credit system of our country , strengthening the risk supervision , developing the relevant regulations , adopting the team loan system , etc . , aiming at providing some help to the future P2P network lending development in our country , and promoting the healthy development of the capital market in our country . Based on the previous scholars , this paper discusses the adverse selection and moral hazard of P2P network lending under asymmetric information , and uses the crawler program to grasp the real transaction data on the P2P network lending platform and make an empirical study .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F831.2;F832.4

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