本文關(guān)鍵詞：機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股與業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量的關(guān)系研究　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 管理層業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告 披露質(zhì)量 機(jī)構(gòu)投資者 持股情況

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展及業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告制度的發(fā)展,管理層業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告信息披露得到越來(lái)越多投資者的關(guān)注,而機(jī)構(gòu)投資者作為資本市場(chǎng)投資者中不可或缺的一部分,對(duì)于管理層業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告的披露信息也更為關(guān)注。相對(duì)于其他投資者,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者擁有充足的資金、人脈、專(zhuān)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)以及信息分析處理能力,通過(guò)“用手投票”和“用腳投票”監(jiān)督和影響上市公司的信息披露質(zhì)量。研究機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股情況對(duì)業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量的影響可以幫助廣大中小投資者“搭順風(fēng)車(chē)”,使其在做出投資決策時(shí)方向更明確,同時(shí)也能夠促進(jìn)公司治理的改善,優(yōu)化資本市場(chǎng)資源配置,促進(jìn)資本市場(chǎng)的有效運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。 本文以管理層業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告披露情況為切入點(diǎn),在研究國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)及理論基礎(chǔ)、制度背景后,采用了我國(guó)2008年-2012年上證主板和深證主板A股的3476家發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告的上市公司作為樣本,選取其每年年末數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,探討機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股的各種情況與管理層業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量的相關(guān)性。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文從三個(gè)維度出發(fā),即業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告形式精度、業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告誤差、業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告及時(shí)性,針對(duì)每個(gè)維度分別提出6個(gè)假設(shè),共計(jì)18個(gè)假設(shè)。本文選取業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告披露的形式精度、誤差和及時(shí)性作為被解釋變量,分別對(duì)其進(jìn)行定義,而機(jī)構(gòu)投資者方面則選取了機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股與否、機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股比例、基金持股比例、機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股的穩(wěn)定性、前十大股東中機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的數(shù)量以及境外合格機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股比例作為解釋變量,同時(shí)選取了若干控制變量,包括公司規(guī)模、財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、現(xiàn)金流量與營(yíng)業(yè)收入相關(guān)程度、市賬比、盈余波動(dòng)性、會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所類(lèi)型,建立了多元線(xiàn)性回歸模型對(duì)其進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、相關(guān)性分析和回歸分析。 實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示,本文所提出的共計(jì)18個(gè)假設(shè)中有13個(gè)得到驗(yàn)證。由研究結(jié)果可以看出：就整體而言,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股情況對(duì)業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量有一定的顯著影響。尤其是基金持股比例、前十大股東中機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股比例與業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告的形式精度、誤差、及時(shí)性均呈現(xiàn)出小于5%的顯著相關(guān)性,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股的穩(wěn)定性與業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告披露及時(shí)性、誤差呈現(xiàn)出小于5%的顯著相關(guān)性。在實(shí)證分析結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文在最后一章就研究結(jié)果和我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀提出一些對(duì)策建議,同時(shí)針對(duì)研究的過(guò)程中存在的不足之處進(jìn)行了研究拓展,以期對(duì)未來(lái)的研究發(fā)展有所幫助,從而更好地促進(jìn)我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the development of capital market and performance forecasting system in China, more and more investors pay attention to the disclosure of management performance forecast information. As an indispensable part of the capital market investors, institutional investors pay more attention to the disclosure of management performance forecast. Compared with other investors, institutional investors have sufficient funds and contacts. Professional advantage and information analysis and processing ability. By "voting with hands" and "voting with feet" to monitor and influence the quality of information disclosure of listed companies. Take a ride. " At the same time, it can promote the improvement of corporate governance, optimize the allocation of capital market resources, and promote the effective operation of capital market. In this paper, the management performance notice disclosure as a starting point, in the study of domestic and foreign literature and theoretical basis, system background. From 2008 to 2012, 3476 listed companies of Shanghai main Board and Shenzhen main Board were selected as samples to analyze the annual annual data. On the basis of this, this paper starts from three dimensions, that is, the precision of performance forecast form and the error of performance forecast. Performance forecast timeliness, for each dimension of 6 assumptions, a total of 18 hypotheses. This paper selects the formal accuracy of performance notice disclosure, error and timeliness as explained variables, respectively to define it. On the other hand, institutional investors choose whether institutional investors hold shares or not, the proportion of institutional investors holding shares, the proportion of funds holding shares, and the stability of institutional investors' holdings. The number of institutional investors in the top 10 shareholders and the proportion of foreign qualified institutional investors are taken as explanatory variables. At the same time, a number of control variables are selected, including the size of the company, financial risk. The relationship between cash flow and operating income, market / book ratio, earnings volatility and accounting firm type is analyzed by using a multivariate linear regression model for descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis. The empirical results show that 13 of the 18 hypotheses proposed in this paper have been verified. From the results of the study, we can see: on the whole. Institutional investor's stock holding situation has a certain significant influence on the quality of performance forecast disclosure, especially the proportion of fund shareholding, the formal accuracy and error of institutional investor's shareholding proportion and performance forecast among the top ten shareholders. Timeliness shows significant correlation with less than 5%, institutional investor stock holding stability and timeliness of performance announcement, error is less than 5%. Based on the results of empirical analysis. In the last chapter, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the research results and the current situation of the development of the capital market in our country. At the same time, the author develops the research on the deficiencies in the course of the research. In order to help the future research and development, and better promote the healthy development of China's capital market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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