【摘要】：隨著“十三五”現(xiàn)代綜合交通運(yùn)輸體系發(fā)展規(guī)劃的出臺(tái),我國基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),特別是城際鐵路的建設(shè)步伐加快。政府部門采用PPP融資模式引進(jìn)社會(huì)資本,既減輕政府財(cái)政壓力、降低政府風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、滿足城際鐵路建設(shè)融資需要,同時(shí)又可滿足社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展需要。私營部門通常掌握非常先進(jìn)的項(xiàng)目管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)和技術(shù),引入社會(huì)資本將有助于大幅提高基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的質(zhì)量和效率,同時(shí)降低基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的成本。然而,PPP模式下城際鐵路項(xiàng)目存在投入資金量大、參與方角色關(guān)系復(fù)雜、項(xiàng)目建設(shè)周期較長等特點(diǎn),在項(xiàng)目生命周期內(nèi)存在諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因此PPP模式下城際鐵路項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)是否合理和措施是否得當(dāng),采取的方法能否有效促使各參與方積極高效的控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn),很大程度上決定了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率、項(xiàng)目的損失,甚至項(xiàng)目的成敗。本論文從城際鐵路項(xiàng)目特許協(xié)議階段構(gòu)建項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)模型進(jìn)行深入研究。通過相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和案例,運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)法得出60個(gè)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并分析了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)起源及后果。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的過程中采用統(tǒng)計(jì)法選取文獻(xiàn)中被提到過5次以上的50個(gè)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。采用專家調(diào)查法和L.Y.Shen的觀點(diǎn)得出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素影響程度,經(jīng)過計(jì)算分別得到20個(gè)發(fā)生概率最大和危害程度最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。然后運(yùn)用帕累托法則得到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的累計(jì)貢獻(xiàn)率,得到PPP城際鐵路項(xiàng)目37個(gè)關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素、7個(gè)重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素和6個(gè)次級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。最后將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分為單一承擔(dān)主體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和政府及私營部門兩方承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn):分析單一承擔(dān)主體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)時(shí),構(gòu)建懲罰函數(shù)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制成本補(bǔ)償函數(shù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)函數(shù)模型激勵(lì)參與方提高管理和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的積極性,達(dá)到規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)目的;分析政府及私營部門風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)時(shí),采用博弈論分析法得到雙方分擔(dān)比例,而且得出分擔(dān)比例只和貼現(xiàn)率有關(guān)。
[Abstract]:With the introduction of the 13th five-year Plan for the development of the modern integrated transportation system, the construction of infrastructure, especially the inter-city railway, has been accelerated in our country. Government departments adopt PPP financing mode to introduce social capital, which not only lightens government financial pressure, reduces government risk, meets the financing needs of inter-city railway construction, but also meets the needs of social and economic development. The private sector usually has very advanced project management experience and technology, and the introduction of social capital will help significantly improve the quality and efficiency of infrastructure projects, while reducing the cost of infrastructure projects. However, there are many risks in the life cycle of the inter-city railway projects under the PPP model, such as the large amount of input funds, the complex role of the participants, the long construction cycle of the project, and so on, and there are many risks in the life cycle of the project. Therefore, whether the risk sharing of the inter-city railway project under the PPP mode is reasonable and the measures are appropriate, and whether the methods adopted can effectively promote the participants to actively and efficiently control the risk, to a great extent determines the probability of the project risk and the loss of the project. Even the success or failure of the project. In this paper, the project risk sharing model is constructed from the stage of inter-city railway concession agreement. Through relevant literature and cases, 60 main risk factors are obtained by using statistical method, and the origin and consequences of risk are analyzed. In the process of risk identification, 50 main risk factors mentioned more than 5 times in the literature were selected by statistical method. The influence degree of risk factors was obtained by using expert investigation method and L.Y.Shen 's point of view, and 20 risk factors with the maximum probability of occurrence and the maximum degree of harm were obtained by calculation. Then the cumulative contribution rate of risk factors is obtained by using Pareto rule, and 37 key risk factors, 7 important risk factors and 6 secondary risk factors of PPP intercity railway project are obtained. Finally, the risk factors are divided into single bearing subject risk and government and private sector risk: when analyzing the single bearing subject risk sharing, the penalty function is constructed. The risk control cost compensation function and the risk control reward function model encourage the participants to improve the enthusiasm of management and control risk to achieve the purpose of avoiding risk. When analyzing the risk sharing between the government and the private sector, the game theory analysis is used to obtain the ratio of the two parties, and it is concluded that the ratio of the share is only related to the discount rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F283;F572

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