【摘要】：隨著我國“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略計(jì)劃的提出和逐步實(shí)施,越來越多的沿線國家加強(qiáng)與中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易以及人文交流合作。該戰(zhàn)略的提出為中國高鐵的發(fā)展提供了歷史性的機(jī)遇。但由于高鐵項(xiàng)目本身的特點(diǎn)和東道國諸多因素的影響,中國高鐵走向世界具有較大的復(fù)雜性和不確定性。如何科學(xué)有效地識別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素、明晰風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素結(jié)構(gòu)及作用機(jī)理并且對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確評估已成為高鐵“走出去”的重要難題,同時(shí)也是本文的研究重點(diǎn)。本文首先通過選取多個(gè)國外高鐵項(xiàng)目為對象,對中國高鐵海外受挫原因相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行收集、整理,識別了中國海外高鐵項(xiàng)目遭遇的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類型。進(jìn)而通過相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的整理以及實(shí)例分析,構(gòu)建了海外跨境高鐵項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素體系。考慮到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素之間的相互影響,本文接著提出一種改進(jìn)粒計(jì)算的權(quán)重確定方法,該方法根據(jù)樣本間的相似關(guān)系得到具有分層結(jié)構(gòu)的商空間族,通過對各屬性在商空間族中的重要度進(jìn)行計(jì)算,得到各個(gè)評價(jià)指標(biāo)對應(yīng)的權(quán)重。隨后本文引入物元模型,根據(jù)海外跨境高鐵項(xiàng)目持續(xù)時(shí)間長、涉及多個(gè)東道國的特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建了動態(tài)復(fù)合物元模型。最后,本文以“新馬高鐵”項(xiàng)目為研究對象,運(yùn)用解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型對“新馬高鐵”項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素體系進(jìn)行層級劃分,繪制了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系圖,找出了該項(xiàng)目存在的直接、源頭以及過程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。運(yùn)用改進(jìn)粒計(jì)算法得到各個(gè)評價(jià)指標(biāo)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重,通過對比通過粒計(jì)算得到的權(quán)重發(fā)現(xiàn),在考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素相互影響的情況下得到的權(quán)重更合理,并運(yùn)用動態(tài)復(fù)合物元模型對“新馬高鐵”項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況進(jìn)行評估.最后根據(jù)評價(jià)結(jié)果,提出了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對策略和建議。
[Abstract]:With the development and implementation of Belt and Road's strategic plan, more and more countries along the route have strengthened their economic, trade and cultural exchanges and cooperation with China. This strategy provides a historic opportunity for the development of high-speed rail in China. However, due to the characteristics of the high-speed rail project itself and the influence of many factors in the host country, China's high-speed rail project to the world has greater complexity and uncertainty. How to identify risk factors scientifically and effectively, clarify the structure and mechanism of risk factors and evaluate the risks accurately has become an important problem of high-speed rail "going out", and is also the focus of this paper. This paper firstly collects and collates the data related to the causes of overseas setbacks of China's high-speed rail projects, and identifies the main types of risks encountered by overseas high-speed rail projects in China. Then the risk factors system of overseas cross-border high-speed rail project is constructed through the collation of relevant documents and the analysis of examples. Considering the interaction between risk factors, this paper proposes an improved method to determine the weight of granular computing. According to the similarity relationship between samples, the quotient space family with hierarchical structure is obtained. By calculating the importance of each attribute in the quotient space family, the corresponding weights of each evaluation index are obtained. Then the matter element model is introduced and the dynamic complex element model is constructed according to the characteristics of the overseas cross-border high-speed rail project which has a long duration and involves many host countries. Finally, taking the "Xinma-Malaysia high-speed railway" project as the research object, this paper uses the explanatory structure model to divide the risk factor system of the "Xinma-Malaysia high-speed railway" project into different levels, draws the structural diagram of the risk factor, and finds out the direct existence of the project. Source and process risk. The risk weight of each evaluation index is obtained by using improved particle calculation method. By comparing the weight obtained by grain calculation, it is found that the weight obtained under the condition of considering the mutual influence of risk factors is more reasonable. The dynamic complex element model is used to evaluate the risk of Xinma-high-speed railway project. Finally, according to the evaluation results, put forward the risk response strategies and recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F531.3;F125

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