【摘要】：我國(guó)的出租車行業(yè)相對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家而言起步較晚,但隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展和人民生活水平的極大提高,出租車快速、便利、舒適、安全和服務(wù)面廣的特點(diǎn),使其迅速占領(lǐng)了城市客運(yùn)交通的一方市場(chǎng),其需求量也不斷激增。但是如果對(duì)出租車發(fā)展規(guī)模不加以控制,則會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)營(yíng)者利潤(rùn)低下、行業(yè)不穩(wěn)定、道路交通資源浪費(fèi)、城市交通擁擠、能源消耗、污染加重、日后運(yùn)力過(guò)剩等諸多問(wèn)題。因此,合適的城市出租車擁有量是保證出租汽車行業(yè)資源優(yōu)化配置,健康、有序的發(fā)展以及城市公共交通體系協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的前提。而出租車擁有量到底為多少合適,這就需要在研究清楚城市客運(yùn)交通發(fā)展到底處于什么階段、影響出租車擁有量的因素到底有哪些、城市出租車行業(yè)現(xiàn)狀到底是什么之后,尋求一套合適的方法來(lái)確定城市出租車擁有量。本文根據(jù)長(zhǎng)春市出租車行業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,分析長(zhǎng)春市出租車行業(yè)存在的問(wèn)題,利用數(shù)學(xué)模型協(xié)調(diào)出租汽車與城市客運(yùn)體系中其他客運(yùn)方式的比例,引導(dǎo)長(zhǎng)春市出租車行業(yè)健康發(fā)展。 首先,論文對(duì)出租汽車的交通特性與發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行分析,明確了出租車在城市客運(yùn)交通系統(tǒng)中的地位和作用,分析了出租車與其他交通方式的相互關(guān)系,并探討了出租車交通的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)；其次,本文根據(jù)長(zhǎng)春市出租車行業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,通過(guò)定性的分析,得出長(zhǎng)春市出租車行業(yè)發(fā)展的問(wèn)題所在；最后本文通過(guò)對(duì)出租車與其它交通方式的分析,建立多目標(biāo)約束模型,得出長(zhǎng)春市公交、出租車與私家車的合理比例,在此基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合供需平衡理論得出長(zhǎng)春市出租車的合理保有量,并引入傳統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行結(jié)果對(duì)比,對(duì)不同預(yù)測(cè)方法適應(yīng)性作出分析,最后根據(jù)定性與定量分析提出長(zhǎng)春市出租車發(fā)展策略,對(duì)長(zhǎng)春市出租車行業(yè)發(fā)展有一定借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:China's taxi industry started relatively late compared with the developed countries, but with the rapid development of the national economy and the great improvement of people's living standards, the taxi industry is characterized by fast, convenient, comfortable, safe and wide service. It quickly occupied one side of the market of urban passenger traffic, and its demand increased rapidly. However, if the scale of taxi development is not controlled, it will lead to low profit of operators, unstable industry, waste of road traffic resources, urban traffic congestion, energy consumption, aggravated pollution, future overcapacity and many other problems. Therefore, appropriate urban taxi ownership is the premise to ensure the optimal allocation of taxi industry resources, healthy and orderly development and coordinated development of urban public transport system. However, the number of taxi owners is suitable, so we need to find out what stage the development of urban passenger transport is in, what factors affect taxi ownership, and what is the status quo of the urban taxi industry. Look for a suitable way to determine the number of taxi owners in the city. According to the current situation of the taxi industry in Changchun, this paper analyzes the problems existing in the taxi industry in Changchun, and makes use of the mathematical model to coordinate the proportion of taxi and other passenger transportation modes in the urban passenger transport system. Guide Changchun taxi industry to develop healthily. First of all, the paper analyzes the traffic characteristics and development trend of taxi, clarifies the position and function of taxi in the urban passenger transportation system, and analyzes the relationship between taxi and other traffic modes. The development trend of taxi traffic is also discussed. Secondly, according to the current situation of Changchun taxi industry development, through qualitative analysis, draw the Changchun taxi industry development problems; Finally, through the analysis of taxi and other traffic modes, a multi-objective constraint model is established, and the reasonable proportion of public transportation, taxi and private car in Changchun is obtained. On this basis, combining with the theory of supply and demand balance, the reasonable quantity of taxi in Changchun city is obtained, and the traditional forecasting method is introduced to compare the results, and the adaptability of different forecasting methods is analyzed. Finally, according to the qualitative and quantitative analysis, the development strategy of Changchun taxi is put forward, which can be used for reference to the development of Changchun taxi industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F572.88;F224

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