【摘要】：進(jìn)入新世紀(jì)后,隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)布局的進(jìn)一步完善,國際航運(yùn)業(yè)穩(wěn)步發(fā)展。在對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持作用越來越強(qiáng)的同時(shí),國際航運(yùn)業(yè)也被世界經(jīng)濟(jì)、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)和國家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所影響。如今,航運(yùn)業(yè)設(shè)備設(shè)施呈現(xiàn)大型化、專業(yè)化發(fā)展趨勢,經(jīng)營管理呈多極化、多元化發(fā)展趨勢,同時(shí)國際航運(yùn)業(yè)的發(fā)展擴(kuò)大了國際船員市場上的船員需求量。我國作為世界上的人口大國,船員勞動(dòng)力資源十分豐富,是世界第一大船員國家,而中遠(yuǎn)作為國有大型航運(yùn)企業(yè),順應(yīng)國際航運(yùn)業(yè)發(fā)展要求,妥善制定船員勞務(wù)外派發(fā)展計(jì)劃,做到與國際船員市場接軌是中遠(yuǎn)船員外派業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展的必然趨勢。 中遠(yuǎn)集團(tuán)船員勞務(wù)經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)發(fā)展階段,已經(jīng)建立和培養(yǎng)了一支愛崗敬業(yè)、業(yè)務(wù)熟練、作風(fēng)優(yōu)良的國際化、職業(yè)化的高素質(zhì)外派船員隊(duì)伍,形成了一套相對完善、規(guī)范的船員勞務(wù)外派管理制度。但是,隨著國際船員供給重心越來越偏向發(fā)展中國家,中遠(yuǎn)集團(tuán)船員勞務(wù)發(fā)展正面臨著激烈的競爭和巨大的挑戰(zhàn),此外,《STCW78/95公約》馬尼拉修正案、《ILO公約》等公約的通過也使國際海事公約體系更加完善。面對新的船員勞務(wù)發(fā)展形勢,我們在看到挑戰(zhàn)的同時(shí)也應(yīng)抓住機(jī)遇,著力使中遠(yuǎn)船員勞務(wù)從數(shù)量型向質(zhì)量型轉(zhuǎn)變,發(fā)揮船員勞務(wù)外派的積極作用。 針對上述問題,本文首先從中遠(yuǎn)集團(tuán)船員勞務(wù)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀與存在的問題入手,系統(tǒng)分析了國際船員勞務(wù)市場的現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展趨勢；然后通過運(yùn)用二次指數(shù)平滑(Double Exponential Smoothing, DES)預(yù)測模型、一元線性回歸(Single linear regression, SLR)預(yù)測模型以及基于上述兩種方法的組合預(yù)測模型,對未來中國勞務(wù)外派海員人數(shù)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測；最后依據(jù)我國船員人力資源和航海教育體系的特點(diǎn),結(jié)合最新的海事公約體系變化和外派海員人數(shù)預(yù)測,研究了中遠(yuǎn)集團(tuán)的船員勞務(wù)外派發(fā)展的對策與建議。
[Abstract]:After entering the new century, with the further development of the world economy and the further perfection of the industrial structure, the international shipping industry has developed steadily. At the same time, the international shipping industry is also affected by the development of world economy, regional economy and national economy. Nowadays, the equipment and facilities of shipping industry show a large scale, specialized development trend, multi-polarization of management and diversified development trend. At the same time, the development of international shipping industry has expanded the demand of crew in the international crew market. As a populous country in the world, China has abundant crew labor resources and is the largest crew member country in the world. Cosco, as a large state-owned shipping enterprise, complies with the requirements of the development of the international shipping industry and properly formulates the development plan of crew labor service assignment. It is an inexorable trend for Cosco to integrate with the international crew market. COSCO Group has experienced three stages of development of crew services, has established and trained a team of highly qualified expatriate crew members who love and work hard, are skilled in business, and have excellent style of work, thus forming a set of relatively perfect crew members. Standard management system of crew service assignment. However, as the focus of international crew supply is more and more towards developing countries, COSCO Group is facing fierce competition and great challenges in the development of crew services. In addition, the Manila Amendment to the STCW78/95 Convention, The adoption of the ILO Convention also makes the international maritime convention system more perfect. In the face of the new situation of the development of crew service, we should grasp the opportunity while we see the challenge, and make great efforts to change the crew service of COSCO from the quantity type to the quality type, and give play to the positive role of the crew labor service assignment. In view of the above problems, this paper starts with the current situation and existing problems of the crew labor service development of COSCO Group, and systematically analyzes the present situation and development trend of the international crew labor market. Then, by using quadratic exponential smoothing (Double Exponential Smoothing, DES) prediction model, univariate linear regression (Single linear regression, SLR) prediction model and combined prediction model based on the above two methods, The future number of Chinese migrant seafarers is forecasted. Finally, according to the characteristics of China's crew human resources and navigation education system, combined with the latest changes of maritime convention system and the prediction of the number of foreign seafarers, this paper studies the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of crew service assignment in COSCO Group.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F272.92;F552.6

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