中國高鐵對外投資風(fēng)險評估與規(guī)避
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-05 21:50
【摘要】：21世紀,隨著經(jīng)濟全球化的深入發(fā)展,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施迎來了前所未有的發(fā)展機遇,在全球高鐵需求市場旺盛背景下,中國高鐵以低成本、高質(zhì)量的獨特優(yōu)勢迅速走出國門,積極參與海外以“低碳、節(jié)約、綠色環(huán)�！睘楹诵牡母哞F市場建設(shè),成為未來對外投資中一個極具成長性項目。雖然我國高鐵市場的出現(xiàn)以及建立都晚于日本、歐美等高鐵國家,但是我國高鐵市場成長速度快,在中國政府主導(dǎo)下,中國高鐵通過“引進、吸收、創(chuàng)新”的發(fā)展模式,其配套設(shè)備、相關(guān)技術(shù)不斷創(chuàng)新發(fā)展,據(jù)有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計,中國國內(nèi)高速鐵路運營里程和高速鐵路建設(shè)規(guī)模已經(jīng)超越世界各國,成為世界上高鐵大國。但是,中國高鐵對外投資是一個全新的領(lǐng)域,會遭遇各種風(fēng)險,并且是未來中國高鐵對外投資中無法回避的一個新問題。中國高鐵對外投資具有項目系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜、投資金額大、投資周期長、技術(shù)要求高,收益回報周期長等特點,故在項目的投資過程中必定會存在各種不確定因素影響中國高鐵對外投資的效益,通過對影響或者形成中國對外投資風(fēng)險的影響因素進行梳理總結(jié),本文側(cè)重從系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險和非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險兩方面進行全面系統(tǒng)分析,系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險主要包括中國高鐵投資目標(biāo)國國別風(fēng)險、經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險、法律法規(guī)風(fēng)險等不受投資主體控制的外部市場風(fēng)險；非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險指投資主體自身原因所造成的投資活動的不確定,包括中國高鐵對外投資主要是在中國在政府主導(dǎo)下,而不是基于全球高鐵市場供求規(guī)律,這在一定程度上能夠減少高鐵對外投資的障礙,轉(zhuǎn)移國內(nèi)產(chǎn)能過剩,提高海外市場利用率,但是一方面卻為高鐵對外投資埋下了隱患。本文在梳理有關(guān)對外直接投資理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國高鐵在世界市場上的投資現(xiàn)狀,瞄準(zhǔn)影響中國高鐵對外投資風(fēng)險的不確定因素,分析高鐵對外投資的相關(guān)資料,劃分影響高鐵對外投資的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險和非系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險,結(jié)合專家調(diào)查法,收集整合專家們的意見,并結(jié)合實地考察,口頭咨詢,查閱相關(guān)文獻的方式,識別和分析評價中國高鐵投資過程中的不確定因素對中國高鐵對外投資風(fēng)險水平的影響比重,并對它們深入剖析,層次分類,然后建立有效的風(fēng)險因素指標(biāo)體系,并使用MATLAB軟件計算各個風(fēng)險因素的風(fēng)險權(quán)重,建立有效的中國高體對外投資風(fēng)險水平指標(biāo)體系,并借助AHP模糊綜合評估模型,全面度量風(fēng)險水平,且對評價結(jié)果使用三種原則綜合評估,得出高鐵對外投資風(fēng)險水平屬于低下等。最后,文章針對高鐵對外投資提出對策建議來規(guī)避對外投資中的風(fēng)險,以期為高鐵對外投資風(fēng)險水平評估與規(guī)避提供思路,為新興工業(yè)國家對外投資經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型作出一定借鑒。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, with the deepening development of economic globalization, infrastructure has ushered in unprecedented opportunities for development. Against the background of the booming global high-speed rail demand market, China's high-speed rail has rapidly gone abroad with its unique advantages of low cost and high quality. Taking an active part in the construction of high speed rail market with "low carbon, saving and green environment" as the core of overseas, it has become a very growth project in the future foreign investment. Although the emergence and establishment of China's high-speed rail market is later than that of high-speed rail countries such as Japan, Europe and the United States, the high-speed rail market in China has grown rapidly. Under the leadership of the Chinese government, high-speed rail in China has been developed through the "import, absorption, and innovation" development model. According to statistics, China's domestic high-speed railway operation mileage and high-speed railway construction scale has surpassed the world countries, become the world's high-speed rail power. However, China's high-speed rail outbound investment is a new area, will encounter a variety of risks, and will be the future of high-speed rail foreign investment in China can not avoid a new problem. Foreign investment in high-speed rail in China is characterized by complex project systems, large investment amount, long investment cycle, high technical requirements, and long return period. Therefore, in the investment process of the project, there must be a variety of uncertain factors that affect the benefit of China's high-speed railway foreign investment, and the influence factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment are summarized through combing and summing up the factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment. This paper focuses on systemic risk and non-systemic risk. The systemic risk includes country risk and economic risk in the target country of high-speed rail investment in China. The external market risks, such as the risks of laws and regulations, which are not controlled by the investors; Non-systemic risk refers to the uncertainty of investment activities caused by the investors' own causes, including the fact that China's foreign investment in high-speed rail is mainly under the leadership of the Chinese government, rather than based on the laws of supply and demand in the global high-speed rail market. To some extent, this can reduce the barriers to foreign investment in high-speed rail, transfer domestic overcapacity and improve the utilization rate of overseas markets, but it has created a hidden problem for foreign investment in high-speed rail. On the basis of combing the theoretical research on foreign direct investment (FDI), combined with the current investment situation of China's high-speed rail in the world market, this paper aims at the uncertain factors that affect the risk of China's high-speed rail investment abroad, and analyzes the relevant data of high-speed rail's foreign investment. Dividing the systematic and non-systematic risks that affect foreign investment in high-speed rail, combining the expert investigation method, collecting and integrating the opinions of the experts, and combining the field visits, oral consultation, and the way of consulting the relevant literature. To identify and evaluate the impact of the uncertain factors in the investment process of China's high-speed rail on the risk level of China's high-speed rail foreign investment, and to analyze and classify them in depth, and then to establish an effective index system of risk factors. The risk weight of each risk factor is calculated by using MATLAB software, and an effective index system of Chinese high body foreign investment risk level is established. With the help of AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the risk level is comprehensively measured. Using three principles to evaluate the evaluation results, it is concluded that the risk level of foreign investment in high-speed rail is low. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to avoid the risks in the foreign investment of high-speed rail, in order to provide some ideas for the evaluation and avoidance of the risk level of foreign investment of high-speed rail, and to make certain reference for the economic transformation of foreign investment in the emerging industrial countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F532;F125
本文編號：2365527
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, with the deepening development of economic globalization, infrastructure has ushered in unprecedented opportunities for development. Against the background of the booming global high-speed rail demand market, China's high-speed rail has rapidly gone abroad with its unique advantages of low cost and high quality. Taking an active part in the construction of high speed rail market with "low carbon, saving and green environment" as the core of overseas, it has become a very growth project in the future foreign investment. Although the emergence and establishment of China's high-speed rail market is later than that of high-speed rail countries such as Japan, Europe and the United States, the high-speed rail market in China has grown rapidly. Under the leadership of the Chinese government, high-speed rail in China has been developed through the "import, absorption, and innovation" development model. According to statistics, China's domestic high-speed railway operation mileage and high-speed railway construction scale has surpassed the world countries, become the world's high-speed rail power. However, China's high-speed rail outbound investment is a new area, will encounter a variety of risks, and will be the future of high-speed rail foreign investment in China can not avoid a new problem. Foreign investment in high-speed rail in China is characterized by complex project systems, large investment amount, long investment cycle, high technical requirements, and long return period. Therefore, in the investment process of the project, there must be a variety of uncertain factors that affect the benefit of China's high-speed railway foreign investment, and the influence factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment are summarized through combing and summing up the factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment. This paper focuses on systemic risk and non-systemic risk. The systemic risk includes country risk and economic risk in the target country of high-speed rail investment in China. The external market risks, such as the risks of laws and regulations, which are not controlled by the investors; Non-systemic risk refers to the uncertainty of investment activities caused by the investors' own causes, including the fact that China's foreign investment in high-speed rail is mainly under the leadership of the Chinese government, rather than based on the laws of supply and demand in the global high-speed rail market. To some extent, this can reduce the barriers to foreign investment in high-speed rail, transfer domestic overcapacity and improve the utilization rate of overseas markets, but it has created a hidden problem for foreign investment in high-speed rail. On the basis of combing the theoretical research on foreign direct investment (FDI), combined with the current investment situation of China's high-speed rail in the world market, this paper aims at the uncertain factors that affect the risk of China's high-speed rail investment abroad, and analyzes the relevant data of high-speed rail's foreign investment. Dividing the systematic and non-systematic risks that affect foreign investment in high-speed rail, combining the expert investigation method, collecting and integrating the opinions of the experts, and combining the field visits, oral consultation, and the way of consulting the relevant literature. To identify and evaluate the impact of the uncertain factors in the investment process of China's high-speed rail on the risk level of China's high-speed rail foreign investment, and to analyze and classify them in depth, and then to establish an effective index system of risk factors. The risk weight of each risk factor is calculated by using MATLAB software, and an effective index system of Chinese high body foreign investment risk level is established. With the help of AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the risk level is comprehensively measured. Using three principles to evaluate the evaluation results, it is concluded that the risk level of foreign investment in high-speed rail is low. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to avoid the risks in the foreign investment of high-speed rail, in order to provide some ideas for the evaluation and avoidance of the risk level of foreign investment of high-speed rail, and to make certain reference for the economic transformation of foreign investment in the emerging industrial countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F532;F125
【相似文獻】
相關(guān)會議論文 前1條
1 中國電子科技集團公司內(nèi)審課題第一調(diào)研組;;論現(xiàn)代企業(yè)對外投資風(fēng)險的預(yù)防與控制[A];中國內(nèi)部審計協(xié)會現(xiàn)代企業(yè)風(fēng)險管理論文匯編（下冊）[C];2005年
相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前7條
1 王宸;出國炒房警示對外投資風(fēng)險[N];證券時報;2007年
2 鐘聲;主動防控對外投資風(fēng)險[N];中國改革報;2011年
3 唐少雄;日企強化對外投資風(fēng)險管理[N];中國石化報;2009年
4 商務(wù)部中國國際經(jīng)濟合作學(xué)會副會長 中國對外投資合作洽談會執(zhí)行秘書長 王洪濤;“走出去”須謹慎對待風(fēng)險管理[N];中國石油報;2012年
5 張麟云;淺析企業(yè)對外投資風(fēng)險管理[N];新農(nóng)村商報;2011年
6 胡蘇;企業(yè)“走出去”需防范三大風(fēng)險[N];中國現(xiàn)代企業(yè)報;2007年
7 李玖宇;規(guī)避對越直接投資風(fēng)險[N];廣西日報;2007年
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 李芳芳;中國高鐵對外投資風(fēng)險評估與規(guī)避[D];陜西師范大學(xué);2016年
，本文編號：2365527
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/jingjilunwen/jtysjj/2365527.html
最近更新
教材專著
