【摘要】：合理的停車(chē)收費(fèi)及供給對(duì)城市中心區(qū)交通正常運(yùn)行至關(guān)重要,但停車(chē)政策實(shí)施后的實(shí)際效果往往較難預(yù)測(cè)。目前停車(chē)政策作為交通需求管理手段的有效性已得到了眾多研究的證實(shí),但這些研究大都只考慮了停車(chē)收費(fèi)而忽略了停車(chē)供給,同時(shí)模型以簡(jiǎn)單的靜態(tài)模型為主,并且分析目標(biāo)仍停留在需求總量上,不能為政府決策者提供一個(gè)直觀的決策依據(jù)。因此如何分析不同停車(chē)收費(fèi)和停車(chē)供給政策對(duì)路網(wǎng)交通狀態(tài)的動(dòng)態(tài)影響成為亟待解決的交通問(wèn)題。系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)是一種在表達(dá)整個(gè)系統(tǒng)架構(gòu)的同時(shí)還能捕捉元素復(fù)雜的動(dòng)態(tài)演變的建模方法,通過(guò)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)可以滿足模型的動(dòng)態(tài)演化需求,并同時(shí)考慮停車(chē)收費(fèi)和停車(chē)供給的聯(lián)系作用,能對(duì)不同停車(chē)政策下路網(wǎng)狀態(tài)進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)評(píng)估,獲取優(yōu)化的停車(chē)收費(fèi)和停車(chē)供給政策。本文從停車(chē)收費(fèi)與供給的作用原理出發(fā),分析了兩者聯(lián)動(dòng)影響下的作用機(jī)理,并闡述了系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型與其建模方法,在此基礎(chǔ)上應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)建立了停車(chē)政策評(píng)估模型,就停車(chē)收費(fèi)與供給政策聯(lián)動(dòng)下對(duì)路網(wǎng)運(yùn)行車(chē)速的具體影響展開(kāi)研究。該模型由三個(gè)相互關(guān)聯(lián)的子系統(tǒng)組成,首先在出行成本評(píng)估子系統(tǒng)中匯總出各出行方式的出行成本,然后在出行方式選擇子系統(tǒng)以各出行方式的出行成本為基礎(chǔ)結(jié)合出行方式選擇模型預(yù)測(cè)政策實(shí)施后新的出行方式分布,出行分布轉(zhuǎn)換成流量后輸入到路網(wǎng)評(píng)價(jià)子系統(tǒng)中結(jié)合路阻函數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)路網(wǎng)車(chē)速并產(chǎn)生新的出行成本。新的出行成本繼續(xù)進(jìn)入模型循環(huán)直至整個(gè)系統(tǒng)達(dá)到穩(wěn)態(tài)。模型最終輸出路網(wǎng)運(yùn)行車(chē)速作為評(píng)價(jià)變量,并代表整個(gè)路網(wǎng)的交通狀態(tài),為決策者規(guī)劃提供理論依據(jù)。本論文以杭州市中心區(qū)為例,根據(jù)模型所需要的參數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查。通過(guò)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)與杭州市交通擁堵指數(shù)平臺(tái)的武林商圈范圍內(nèi)的路網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型的準(zhǔn)確度進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)預(yù)測(cè)的停車(chē)收費(fèi)影響下的路網(wǎng)車(chē)速與實(shí)際相對(duì)誤差為1.1%。結(jié)果表明：基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)建立的綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型能較好的反應(yīng)路網(wǎng)車(chē)速隨停車(chē)收費(fèi)的變化規(guī)律,并且模型推測(cè)若減少核心區(qū)停車(chē)供給反而會(huì)增加其擁堵程度。
[Abstract]:Reasonable parking charge and supply are very important to the normal operation of traffic in urban center, but the actual effect of parking policy is often difficult to predict. At present, the effectiveness of parking policy as a means of traffic demand management has been confirmed by many studies, but most of these studies only consider parking fees and ignore parking supply, and the model is based on simple static model. And the objective of the analysis is still on the total demand, which can not provide an intuitive basis for government decision-makers. Therefore, how to analyze the dynamic influence of different parking fees and parking supply policies on road network traffic status becomes an urgent traffic problem. System dynamics is a modeling method that not only expresses the whole system architecture but also captures the complex dynamic evolution of elements. System dynamics can meet the needs of the dynamic evolution of the model. At the same time, considering the relationship between parking charge and parking supply, we can dynamically evaluate the road network status under different parking policies, and obtain the optimized parking charge and parking supply policy. Based on the principle of parking charge and supply, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the system dynamics under the influence of both, and expounds the system dynamics model and its modeling method. On this basis, the parking policy evaluation model is established by using the system dynamics. This paper studies the effect of parking charge and supply policy on the speed of road network. The model is composed of three interrelated subsystems. Firstly, the travel cost of each travel mode is summarized in the travel cost assessment subsystem. Then the new travel mode distribution is predicted after the implementation of the travel mode selection model, which is based on the travel cost of each trip mode selection subsystem and the travel mode selection model. After the trip distribution is converted to flow, it is input into the evaluation subsystem of road network to predict the future speed of road network and generate new travel cost combined with road resistance function. The new travel cost continues to enter the model cycle until the whole system reaches steady state. Finally, the model outputs the speed of the road network as an evaluation variable and represents the traffic state of the whole road network, which provides a theoretical basis for the decision makers' planning. This paper takes Hangzhou central district as an example, designs the survey according to the parameter data needed by the model. The accuracy of the model is verified by the investigation data and the road network data of the Wulin commercial area of Hangzhou traffic congestion index platform. It is found that the relative error between the road network speed and the actual speed under the influence of the predicted parking charges is 1.1. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation model based on system dynamics can better reflect the variation of road speed with parking charge, and the model inferred that if the parking supply in the core area was reduced, the congestion would be increased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F572.88;N941.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前7條

1 邵敏華;李田野;孫立軍;;常規(guī)公交乘客對(duì)車(chē)內(nèi)擁擠感知阻抗調(diào)查與建模[J];同濟(jì)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2012年07期

2 隗海林;王勁松;王云鵬;俄文娟;高磊;;基于城市道路工況的汽車(chē)燃油消耗模型[J];吉林大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(工學(xué)版);2009年05期

3 宗芳;雋志才;張慧永;賈洪飛;;出行時(shí)間價(jià)值計(jì)算及應(yīng)用研究[J];交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息;2009年03期

4 賈洪飛;龔勃文;宗芳;;交通方式選擇的非集計(jì)模型及其應(yīng)用[J];吉林大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(工學(xué)版);2007年06期

5 安實(shí),王健;停車(chē)需求預(yù)測(cè)與管理[J];交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息;2001年03期

6 趙鵬,藤原章正,杉惠賴寧;SP調(diào)查方法在交通預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];北方交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2000年06期

7 滕素珍,紀(jì)青君;交通方式選擇的Logit模型[J];大連理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1990年01期

，

本文編號(hào)：2351209