【摘要】：出行者停車決策行為是停車問題的一個重要研究方向。早期的出行者停車決策問題主要從政府、停車場運營商的視角開展研究,較少從出行者風險態(tài)度的視角開展研究。近年研究表明,出行者的風險態(tài)度會影響出行者的出行選擇行為。因此,本文考慮出行者的風險態(tài)度,研究了不同風險態(tài)度類型出行者的最優(yōu)路內(nèi)停車策略選擇。首先,本文對停車問題的研究進行了梳理,并總結(jié)了文獻中有關(guān)出行者停車決策行為的研究進展。然后通過閱讀文獻,系統(tǒng)地梳理了影響出行者停車決策的因素,并將其進行歸納總結(jié)。本文將影響因素分為個體因素、經(jīng)濟因素和時間因素三類,因為出行者的年齡、性別等個體因素最終會作用于出行者的風險態(tài)度,所以本文采用風險態(tài)度刻畫出行者的個體因素,并以此作為出行者類型的分類標準,將出行者劃分為風險規(guī)避型出行者、風險中性型出行者、風險偏好型出行者。此外,經(jīng)濟因素包括停車費用和燃油費用,時間因素包括普通駕駛時間、巡游時間和步行時間。最終得到了出行者停車決策影響因素的概念模型。其次,本文分析了出行者的停車過程,基于出行者停車決策的影響因素,對出行者在停車過程中所產(chǎn)生的成本進行了定義,即時間成本、經(jīng)濟成本和早到/遲到懲罰成本,并結(jié)合均值—方差理論,引入出行者的風險態(tài)度系數(shù),構(gòu)建了考慮出行者風險態(tài)度的路內(nèi)停車決策模型。同時,本文結(jié)合前人研究,分析了出行者在停車過程中的三種停車策略,包括"早停早到"策略、"早停晚到"策略和"不早到"策略,為研究出行者風險態(tài)度對最優(yōu)路內(nèi)停車策略的選擇的影響打下基礎。再次,本文利用Netlogo仿真平臺,對出行者的路內(nèi)停車過程進行仿真模擬。在仿真實驗中構(gòu)建了多主體的路內(nèi)停車決策仿真情境,模擬了三種不同風險態(tài)度出行者的停車決策行為,分別計算在每種策略下的出行者的風險感知值,然后以風險感知值最小為最優(yōu)目標,分析了不同條件下該類風險態(tài)度出行者的最優(yōu)停車策略選擇情況。并進一步分析了在具體情境下,出行者的最優(yōu)預留出行時間。
[Abstract]:Parking decision-making behavior is an important research direction of parking problem. The problem of parking decision in the early period was mainly studied from the perspective of government and parking operators, and less from the perspective of travelers' risk attitude. Recent studies have shown that the traveler's risk attitude will affect the traveler's travel choice behavior. Therefore, considering the risk attitude of travelers, this paper studies the optimal parking strategy selection for different risk attitude types. Firstly, this paper reviews the research on parking problem and summarizes the research progress of parking decision-making behavior in the literature. Then, by reading the literature, the paper systematically combs the factors that affect the parking decision, and summarizes them. This paper divides the influencing factors into three categories: individual factors, economic factors and time factors, because individual factors such as age, sex and other factors will ultimately affect the risk attitude of travelers. So this paper uses risk attitude to describe the individual factors of the traveler and takes it as the classification standard of the type of traveler. The traveler is divided into risk aversion type traveler risk neutral type traveler and risk preference type traveler. In addition, economic factors include parking and fuel costs, time factors include normal driving time, cruise time and walking time. Finally, the conceptual model of influencing factors of parking decision is obtained. Secondly, this paper analyzes the parking process of the passengers, and based on the factors influencing the parking decision, defines the costs incurred by the passengers in the parking process, namely, the time cost, the economic cost and the penalty cost of early arrival / late arrival. Based on the mean-variance theory and the risk attitude coefficient of travelers, a parking decision model considering the risk attitude of travelers is constructed. At the same time, combined with previous studies, this paper analyzes three kinds of parking strategies in the process of parking for travelers, including "early stop early", "early stop, late arrival" and "no early arrival". It provides a basis for studying the influence of traveler's risk attitude on the choice of optimal parking strategy. Thirdly, this paper uses Netlogo simulation platform to simulate the parking process. In the simulation experiment, a multi-agent simulation situation of in-road parking decision is constructed, and the parking decision-making behavior of three different risk attitude travelers is simulated, and the risk perception values of the travelers under each strategy are calculated respectively. Then, taking the minimum risk perception as the optimal goal, the optimal parking strategy selection of this kind of risk attitude travelers is analyzed under different conditions. Furthermore, the optimal reserved travel time for travelers in specific situations is analyzed.
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F713.55;F572
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本文編號：2338362