海鐵聯(lián)運對港口腹地的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-11 21:10
【摘要】：海鐵聯(lián)運作為港口縱深腹地拓展的重要途徑,其開通與運營對港口腹地范圍及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展都會產(chǎn)生較大的影響。目前國內(nèi)港口間面臨著交叉腹地貨源爭攬激烈,而縱深腹地貨源卻無力承運的窘境,海鐵聯(lián)運作為港口中遠距離貨源運送的重要方式,開始受到越來越多的重視。本文基于此背景,研究海鐵聯(lián)運對以其為軸的港口腹地的影響,本文的內(nèi)容主要包括以下幾個方面：1)基于海鐵聯(lián)運和港口腹地區(qū)域發(fā)展的特點,借鑒“點—軸”系統(tǒng)理論在區(qū)域開發(fā)中的應用,揭示了以海鐵聯(lián)運為“軸”、軸線上的城鎮(zhèn)節(jié)點為“點”的港口腹地“點—軸”作用機制及其空間結構演化過程；2)基于貨主角度,以成本最小化為目標,構建海鐵聯(lián)運路徑優(yōu)選模型并利用改進的Dijkstra算法求解,對貨源地經(jīng)由港口進出口的優(yōu)選路徑進行分析得出基于海鐵聯(lián)運的貨源地集合,即為以海鐵聯(lián)運為軸的港口腹地范圍；3)在界定的腹地范圍內(nèi)選取適當?shù)慕?jīng)濟指標,通過對海鐵聯(lián)運運量序列與腹地指標變量序列進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整分析及Granger因果分析,揭示海鐵聯(lián)運對港口腹地區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的長期影響；通過對海鐵聯(lián)運與指標變量序列進行VAR模型分析、脈沖響應函數(shù)分析,揭示海鐵聯(lián)運對腹地區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的短期影響； 4)以大連港及哈大線海鐵聯(lián)運為實例,對大連港基于哈大線的港口腹地進行了界定,在界定的腹地范圍內(nèi)選取GDP、進出口總額、集裝箱吞吐量等指標作為變量序列,將其與海鐵聯(lián)運運量序列進行時間序列分析,指出了海鐵聯(lián)運運量與指標變量間存在長期均衡的關系；對變量序列進行VAR模型分析及脈沖函數(shù)分析,指出在短期內(nèi)變量序列間受隨機擾動項沖擊的影響。
[Abstract]:As an important way to expand the port's deep hinterland, its opening and operation will have a great influence on the port's hinterland scope and economic development. At present, the domestic ports are facing the fierce competition of cross-hinterland freight source, but the deep hinterland freight source is unable to carry the dilemma. As an important way of long-distance cargo transportation in the port, seaborne combined transport is getting more and more attention. Based on this background, this paper studies the influence of seaborne transport on port hinterland with its axis. The contents of this paper mainly include the following aspects: 1) based on the characteristics of seaborne intermodal transport and port hinterland development, Referring to the application of "point-axis" system theory in regional development, this paper reveals the mechanism and spatial structure evolution process of port hinterland "point-axis" with seaborne combined transport as "axis" and urban node on axis as "point". 2) based on the view of the cargo owner and aiming at minimizing the cost, the optimal route selection model is constructed and solved by using the improved Dijkstra algorithm. Based on the analysis of the optimal route of the import and export of the source land through the port, it is concluded that the collection of the source sites based on the sea-rail transport is the hinterland range of the port with the sea-rail transport as the axis; 3) selecting appropriate economic indicators within the defined hinterland range, and carrying on the stationary test, cointegration analysis and Granger causality analysis to the seaborne combined transport volume series and the hinterland index variable sequence. To reveal the long-term impact of sea-rail transport on the port hinterland regional economy; Through the VAR model analysis and impulse response function analysis of the seaborne combined transport and index variable sequence, this paper reveals the short-term influence of the seaborne combined transport on the hinterland regional economy. 4) the port hinterland of Dalian Port based on Hada Line is defined with the example of Dalian Port and Hada Railway combined Transport, and the indexes such as total import and export of GDP, and container throughput are selected as variable sequence in the defined hinterland. Based on the analysis of time series between sea and rail transport volume, it is pointed out that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between sea-rail transport volume and index variables. The VAR model analysis and pulse function analysis of variable sequence are carried out, and it is pointed out that in a short period of time variables are affected by the shock of random disturbance term.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552;F532
本文編號：2326144
[Abstract]:As an important way to expand the port's deep hinterland, its opening and operation will have a great influence on the port's hinterland scope and economic development. At present, the domestic ports are facing the fierce competition of cross-hinterland freight source, but the deep hinterland freight source is unable to carry the dilemma. As an important way of long-distance cargo transportation in the port, seaborne combined transport is getting more and more attention. Based on this background, this paper studies the influence of seaborne transport on port hinterland with its axis. The contents of this paper mainly include the following aspects: 1) based on the characteristics of seaborne intermodal transport and port hinterland development, Referring to the application of "point-axis" system theory in regional development, this paper reveals the mechanism and spatial structure evolution process of port hinterland "point-axis" with seaborne combined transport as "axis" and urban node on axis as "point". 2) based on the view of the cargo owner and aiming at minimizing the cost, the optimal route selection model is constructed and solved by using the improved Dijkstra algorithm. Based on the analysis of the optimal route of the import and export of the source land through the port, it is concluded that the collection of the source sites based on the sea-rail transport is the hinterland range of the port with the sea-rail transport as the axis; 3) selecting appropriate economic indicators within the defined hinterland range, and carrying on the stationary test, cointegration analysis and Granger causality analysis to the seaborne combined transport volume series and the hinterland index variable sequence. To reveal the long-term impact of sea-rail transport on the port hinterland regional economy; Through the VAR model analysis and impulse response function analysis of the seaborne combined transport and index variable sequence, this paper reveals the short-term influence of the seaborne combined transport on the hinterland regional economy. 4) the port hinterland of Dalian Port based on Hada Line is defined with the example of Dalian Port and Hada Railway combined Transport, and the indexes such as total import and export of GDP, and container throughput are selected as variable sequence in the defined hinterland. Based on the analysis of time series between sea and rail transport volume, it is pointed out that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between sea-rail transport volume and index variables. The VAR model analysis and pulse function analysis of variable sequence are carried out, and it is pointed out that in a short period of time variables are affected by the shock of random disturbance term.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552;F532
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