【摘要】：海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)作為港口縱深腹地拓展的重要途徑,其開通與運(yùn)營(yíng)對(duì)港口腹地范圍及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展都會(huì)產(chǎn)生較大的影響。目前國(guó)內(nèi)港口間面臨著交叉腹地貨源爭(zhēng)攬激烈,而縱深腹地貨源卻無力承運(yùn)的窘境,海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)作為港口中遠(yuǎn)距離貨源運(yùn)送的重要方式,開始受到越來越多的重視。本文基于此背景,研究海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)對(duì)以其為軸的港口腹地的影響,本文的內(nèi)容主要包括以下幾個(gè)方面：1)基于海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)和港口腹地區(qū)域發(fā)展的特點(diǎn),借鑒“點(diǎn)—軸”系統(tǒng)理論在區(qū)域開發(fā)中的應(yīng)用,揭示了以海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)為“軸”、軸線上的城鎮(zhèn)節(jié)點(diǎn)為“點(diǎn)”的港口腹地“點(diǎn)—軸”作用機(jī)制及其空間結(jié)構(gòu)演化過程；2)基于貨主角度,以成本最小化為目標(biāo),構(gòu)建海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)路徑優(yōu)選模型并利用改進(jìn)的Dijkstra算法求解,對(duì)貨源地經(jīng)由港口進(jìn)出口的優(yōu)選路徑進(jìn)行分析得出基于海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)的貨源地集合,即為以海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)為軸的港口腹地范圍；3)在界定的腹地范圍內(nèi)選取適當(dāng)?shù)慕?jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),通過對(duì)海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)運(yùn)量序列與腹地指標(biāo)變量序列進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析及Granger因果分析,揭示海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)對(duì)港口腹地區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期影響；通過對(duì)海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)與指標(biāo)變量序列進(jìn)行VAR模型分析、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析,揭示海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)對(duì)腹地區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的短期影響； 4)以大連港及哈大線海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)為實(shí)例,對(duì)大連港基于哈大線的港口腹地進(jìn)行了界定,在界定的腹地范圍內(nèi)選取GDP、進(jìn)出口總額、集裝箱吞吐量等指標(biāo)作為變量序列,將其與海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)運(yùn)量序列進(jìn)行時(shí)間序列分析,指出了海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)運(yùn)量與指標(biāo)變量間存在長(zhǎng)期均衡的關(guān)系；對(duì)變量序列進(jìn)行VAR模型分析及脈沖函數(shù)分析,指出在短期內(nèi)變量序列間受隨機(jī)擾動(dòng)項(xiàng)沖擊的影響。
[Abstract]:As an important way to expand the port's deep hinterland, its opening and operation will have a great influence on the port's hinterland scope and economic development. At present, the domestic ports are facing the fierce competition of cross-hinterland freight source, but the deep hinterland freight source is unable to carry the dilemma. As an important way of long-distance cargo transportation in the port, seaborne combined transport is getting more and more attention. Based on this background, this paper studies the influence of seaborne transport on port hinterland with its axis. The contents of this paper mainly include the following aspects: 1) based on the characteristics of seaborne intermodal transport and port hinterland development, Referring to the application of "point-axis" system theory in regional development, this paper reveals the mechanism and spatial structure evolution process of port hinterland "point-axis" with seaborne combined transport as "axis" and urban node on axis as "point". 2) based on the view of the cargo owner and aiming at minimizing the cost, the optimal route selection model is constructed and solved by using the improved Dijkstra algorithm. Based on the analysis of the optimal route of the import and export of the source land through the port, it is concluded that the collection of the source sites based on the sea-rail transport is the hinterland range of the port with the sea-rail transport as the axis; 3) selecting appropriate economic indicators within the defined hinterland range, and carrying on the stationary test, cointegration analysis and Granger causality analysis to the seaborne combined transport volume series and the hinterland index variable sequence. To reveal the long-term impact of sea-rail transport on the port hinterland regional economy; Through the VAR model analysis and impulse response function analysis of the seaborne combined transport and index variable sequence, this paper reveals the short-term influence of the seaborne combined transport on the hinterland regional economy. 4) the port hinterland of Dalian Port based on Hada Line is defined with the example of Dalian Port and Hada Railway combined Transport, and the indexes such as total import and export of GDP, and container throughput are selected as variable sequence in the defined hinterland. Based on the analysis of time series between sea and rail transport volume, it is pointed out that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between sea-rail transport volume and index variables. The VAR model analysis and pulse function analysis of variable sequence are carried out, and it is pointed out that in a short period of time variables are affected by the shock of random disturbance term.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F552;F532

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 姜國(guó)璽;;鐵路集裝箱運(yùn)輸?shù)陌l(fā)展與海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)的探討[J];大陸橋視野;2011年01期

2 陸玉麒;論點(diǎn)-軸系統(tǒng)理論的科學(xué)內(nèi)涵[J];地理科學(xué);2002年02期

3 朱傳耿;劉波;李志江;;港口—腹地關(guān)聯(lián)性測(cè)度及驅(qū)動(dòng)要素研究——以連云港港口—淮海經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)為例[J];地理研究;2009年03期

4 喬小勇;何海燕;;基于Granger檢驗(yàn)的傾銷與產(chǎn)業(yè)損害因果關(guān)系研究[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;2008年07期

5 楊柳;港口鐵路在港口跨越式發(fā)展中的作用[J];中國(guó)港口;2005年02期

6 徐偉;;向莆鐵路建成后海西港口腹地拓展探討[J];中國(guó)港口;2009年11期

7 叢楠;;關(guān)于拓展秦皇島港口經(jīng)濟(jì)腹地的思考[J];改革與開放;2008年04期

8 楊寶臣,王艷,張世英;小樣本協(xié)整系統(tǒng)的檢驗(yàn)[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2002年01期

9 王亞飛;黃運(yùn)華;李芾;劉爽;;鐵路雙層集裝箱運(yùn)輸?shù)陌l(fā)展及其在海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)中的應(yīng)用前景[J];集裝箱化;2010年08期

10 韓君;梁亞民;;基于協(xié)整與ECM模型的中國(guó)能源需求計(jì)量分析[J];開發(fā)研究;2006年06期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 冀玉;海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)集裝箱空箱調(diào)運(yùn)問題研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2011年

2 劉欣;港口腹地劃分問題研究[D];上海海事大學(xué);2006年

3 孫國(guó)卿;海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)與效益研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2010年

4 孫健韜;高速鐵路對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響分析[D];北京交通大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號(hào)：2326144