城市軌道交通延伸線客流預(yù)測(cè)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-11 16:49
【摘要】：我國(guó)的城市軌道交通建設(shè)正處于高速發(fā)展的階段,本著提高運(yùn)營(yíng)效益的原則,許多線路實(shí)行“分期建設(shè)、分期運(yùn)營(yíng)”的修建策略。隨著線路后期工程的陸續(xù)開工建設(shè),很多軌道交通線路將在原有工程的基礎(chǔ)上逐步延伸,因此各個(gè)城市中軌道交通延伸線越來越多地出現(xiàn)。而線路延伸后,往往會(huì)對(duì)原有線路的客流分布產(chǎn)生較大影響,甚至需要調(diào)整線路運(yùn)營(yíng)方案。目前在軌道交通客流預(yù)測(cè)方面的研究多面向線網(wǎng)中長(zhǎng)期的預(yù)測(cè),而對(duì)線路延伸后客流變化的趨勢(shì)以及延伸線的客流預(yù)測(cè)缺乏關(guān)注。針對(duì)這一現(xiàn)狀,本文在已有研究的基礎(chǔ)上,展開軌道交通延伸線的客流預(yù)測(cè)研究。本文首先分析了延伸線開通對(duì)既有線路客流影響的機(jī)理,并以西安地鐵2號(hào)線為例對(duì)線路延伸后客流變化的規(guī)律進(jìn)行了總結(jié),研究了線路延伸后車站客流和站間客流分布的變化特征,為延伸線客流預(yù)測(cè)方法的建立提供理論依據(jù)。其次,本文提出了延伸線車站客流預(yù)測(cè)的方法,采用基于圈層變量的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)路模型預(yù)測(cè)延伸線上新增站點(diǎn)進(jìn)出站客流,并在新增站點(diǎn)客流預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)既有線路上的站點(diǎn)進(jìn)出站客流進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),然后采用總量控制的方法調(diào)整全線站點(diǎn)的進(jìn)出站客流量預(yù)測(cè)值。再次,本文通過引入非集計(jì)模型,提出了軌道交通乘客目的地站點(diǎn)選擇模型,在分析站間OD分布影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上確定了效用函數(shù),建立了基于AFC數(shù)據(jù)的延伸線站間客流分布非集計(jì)預(yù)測(cè)方法,并研究了模型中參數(shù)的標(biāo)定方法。最后,文章以西安地鐵2號(hào)線為例,采用本文建立的車站客流預(yù)測(cè)模型和站間客流分布模型預(yù)測(cè)2號(hào)線南延伸線開通后的客流,將客流預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與實(shí)際運(yùn)營(yíng)客流進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,結(jié)果表明本文提出的預(yù)測(cè)模型相比傳統(tǒng)方法能提高預(yù)測(cè)精度,對(duì)延伸線的客流預(yù)測(cè)有較好的適用性。
[Abstract]:The construction of urban rail transit in our country is in the stage of high speed development. In line with the principle of improving the operation benefit, many lines carry out the construction strategy of "construction by stages and operation by stages". With the construction of the railway line in the late stage, many rail transit lines will be extended gradually on the basis of the original project, so more and more rail transit extension lines appear in each city. After the extension of the line, the passenger flow distribution of the original line will often have a greater impact, and even need to adjust the line operation scheme. At present, the research on passenger flow prediction of rail transit is mostly oriented to the medium and long term forecast of line network, but the trend of passenger flow change after line extension and the passenger flow prediction of extension line are not paid attention to. In view of this situation, this paper, on the basis of the existing research, carries out the passenger flow prediction research of the rail transit extension line. This paper first analyzes the mechanism of the influence of the opening of the extended line on the passenger flow of the existing lines, and taking Xi'an Metro Line 2 as an example, summarizes the rules of passenger flow change after the extension of the line. The variation characteristics of passenger flow and passenger flow distribution between stations after line extension are studied in order to provide theoretical basis for the establishment of passenger flow prediction method. Secondly, this paper puts forward the method of passenger flow prediction of extension line station. The BP neural network model based on loop variables is used to predict the passenger flow of the new station in and out of the extension line. On the basis of the forecast result of the new station passenger flow, the passenger flow in and out of the station on the existing line is forecasted, and then the total quantity control method is adopted to adjust the forecast value of the incoming and outgoing station passenger flow of the whole line station. Thirdly, by introducing the disaggregate model, this paper puts forward the passenger destination station selection model of rail transit, and determines the utility function on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of OD distribution between stations. A disaggregate forecasting method of passenger flow distribution between extended line stations based on AFC data is established, and the calibration method of parameters in the model is studied. Finally, taking Xi'an Metro Line 2 as an example, the passenger flow prediction model and the passenger flow distribution model between stations are used to predict the passenger flow after the opening of the south extension line of Line 2. The results of passenger flow prediction are compared with the actual passenger flow. The results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper can improve the prediction accuracy compared with the traditional method, and has a better applicability to the passenger flow prediction of the extended line.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：U293.13
[Abstract]:The construction of urban rail transit in our country is in the stage of high speed development. In line with the principle of improving the operation benefit, many lines carry out the construction strategy of "construction by stages and operation by stages". With the construction of the railway line in the late stage, many rail transit lines will be extended gradually on the basis of the original project, so more and more rail transit extension lines appear in each city. After the extension of the line, the passenger flow distribution of the original line will often have a greater impact, and even need to adjust the line operation scheme. At present, the research on passenger flow prediction of rail transit is mostly oriented to the medium and long term forecast of line network, but the trend of passenger flow change after line extension and the passenger flow prediction of extension line are not paid attention to. In view of this situation, this paper, on the basis of the existing research, carries out the passenger flow prediction research of the rail transit extension line. This paper first analyzes the mechanism of the influence of the opening of the extended line on the passenger flow of the existing lines, and taking Xi'an Metro Line 2 as an example, summarizes the rules of passenger flow change after the extension of the line. The variation characteristics of passenger flow and passenger flow distribution between stations after line extension are studied in order to provide theoretical basis for the establishment of passenger flow prediction method. Secondly, this paper puts forward the method of passenger flow prediction of extension line station. The BP neural network model based on loop variables is used to predict the passenger flow of the new station in and out of the extension line. On the basis of the forecast result of the new station passenger flow, the passenger flow in and out of the station on the existing line is forecasted, and then the total quantity control method is adopted to adjust the forecast value of the incoming and outgoing station passenger flow of the whole line station. Thirdly, by introducing the disaggregate model, this paper puts forward the passenger destination station selection model of rail transit, and determines the utility function on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of OD distribution between stations. A disaggregate forecasting method of passenger flow distribution between extended line stations based on AFC data is established, and the calibration method of parameters in the model is studied. Finally, taking Xi'an Metro Line 2 as an example, the passenger flow prediction model and the passenger flow distribution model between stations are used to predict the passenger flow after the opening of the south extension line of Line 2. The results of passenger flow prediction are compared with the actual passenger flow. The results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper can improve the prediction accuracy compared with the traditional method, and has a better applicability to the passenger flow prediction of the extended line.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：U293.13
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