【摘要】：近年來(lái)，大連地區(qū)航空運(yùn)輸需求的快速增長(zhǎng)，周水子機(jī)場(chǎng)的乘降量在不斷增加。因此，建造新機(jī)場(chǎng)，滿足現(xiàn)在和將來(lái)的旅客及貨郵等的需求是必要的。結(jié)合世界上已建成的離岸式海上機(jī)場(chǎng)的實(shí)例，大連新機(jī)場(chǎng)被規(guī)劃為離岸式海上機(jī)場(chǎng)。對(duì)于離岸式海上機(jī)場(chǎng)而言集疏運(yùn)問(wèn)題就顯得尤為重要，大連新機(jī)場(chǎng)與城市交通的聯(lián)系方式主要以公路、軌道交通和水運(yùn)為主。 軌道交通以其快速、準(zhǔn)時(shí)和高效的特點(diǎn)，在連接城市和機(jī)場(chǎng)之間的交通系統(tǒng)中發(fā)揮著重要的作用，，所以對(duì)其的研究非常重要，本文主要就是對(duì)大連新機(jī)場(chǎng)軌道交通機(jī)場(chǎng)線進(jìn)行研究�？土餍枨箢A(yù)測(cè)是機(jī)場(chǎng)軌道交通線路建設(shè)必要性與可行性的重要依據(jù)，也是機(jī)場(chǎng)軌道交通線路制式選擇、選線定站與運(yùn)營(yíng)系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建的重要指標(biāo)。本文通過(guò)定性與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法，對(duì)現(xiàn)有的大連周水子機(jī)場(chǎng)客運(yùn)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算，得到大連新機(jī)場(chǎng)軌道交通專(zhuān)線客流量的預(yù)測(cè)值，其中定量方法使用的是三次指數(shù)平滑法和等維灰數(shù)遞補(bǔ)動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)法。同時(shí)對(duì)新機(jī)場(chǎng)軌道交通和原有輕軌的接入點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了規(guī)劃。最后根據(jù)得到的大連新機(jī)場(chǎng)軌道交通客流量預(yù)測(cè)值對(duì)列車(chē)的編組、發(fā)車(chē)頻率和開(kāi)行交路等做出具體規(guī)劃方案。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of air transport demand in Dalian area, the passenger capacity of Zhoushuizi Airport is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to build a new airport to meet the needs of present and future passengers and freight. Based on the example of offshore airport in the world, Dalian new airport is planned as offshore airport. It is very important for offshore sea airport to collect and distribute transportation. The main way of communication between Dalian new airport and urban transportation is highway, rail and water transportation. Because of its rapid, punctual and efficient characteristics, rail transit plays an important role in connecting the transportation system between the city and the airport, so the research on it is very important. This paper is mainly about the research of Dalian New Airport Rail Transit Airport Line. Passenger demand prediction is an important basis for the necessity and feasibility of the construction of airport rail transit lines, as well as an important index for the selection of airport rail transit lines, the selection of railway stations and the construction of operation systems. By combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper calculates the existing passenger traffic data of Dalian Zhoushuizi Airport and obtains the forecast value of passenger flow of Dalian New Airport Rail Transit dedicated Line. Among them, the quantitative method is cubic exponential smoothing method and equal dimension grey number compensatory dynamic prediction method. At the same time, the new airport rail transit and the original light rail access points are planned. Finally, according to the predicted value of passenger flow of Dalian New Airport rail transit, the specific planning scheme is made for the train marshalling, departure frequency and running route.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F562;U239.5

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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本文編號(hào)：2277834