【摘要】：改革開放以來，隨著經(jīng)濟和對外貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展，我國沿海港口取得了跨越式的發(fā)展，港口吞吐量呈高速增長態(tài)勢。這一現(xiàn)象誘發(fā)了國內(nèi)建設(shè)港口的熱潮，新建港口大規(guī)模擴大。然而港口吞吐量的增長最終會趨向飽和，按照目前的港口建設(shè)步伐將會出現(xiàn)沿海港口產(chǎn)能過剩。因此，提前及時地開展沿海港口吞吐量增長預(yù)警研究，通過相關(guān)政策控制港口建設(shè)步伐顯得意義重大。 本文運用國際貿(mào)易、國際物流等相關(guān)理論，對港口發(fā)展的理論與實踐問題進行了探索與研究。結(jié)合港口發(fā)展的相關(guān)理論，本文主要開展了以4點工作：（一）重新定義了本文所涉及到的港口吞吐量增長放緩的時間段，通過分析已完成工業(yè)化國家及地區(qū)的港口吞吐量增長演變過程論證了港口吞吐量增長規(guī)律，并且對港口吞吐量增長與經(jīng)貿(mào)指標(biāo)之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系進行了深入的研究。（二）從歷史角度研究了日韓港口吞吐量的增長演變過程，并在對港口吞吐量與經(jīng)貿(mào)指標(biāo)之間進行了相關(guān)性研究的基礎(chǔ)上，分析歸納了其港口吞吐量增長放緩時間段所呈現(xiàn)的GDP、人均GDP、對外貿(mào)易及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的規(guī)律性特征。（三）在分析我國港口與經(jīng)貿(mào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的基礎(chǔ)上，一方面分別通過Logistic模型、ARIMA模型及球面降維成分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)法對我國GDP、對外貿(mào)易量、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等經(jīng)貿(mào)指標(biāo)的未來增長趨勢進行預(yù)測，并結(jié)合日韓國家港口吞吐量增長放緩時間段所呈現(xiàn)的這些經(jīng)貿(mào)指標(biāo)的規(guī)律性特征，探討出我國港口吞吐量增長放緩的時間段。另一方面根據(jù)已論證的港口吞吐量增長規(guī)律，建立Logistic模型來預(yù)測我國沿海港口吞吐量增長演變過程，，得出我國沿海港口吞吐量增長放緩的時間段。（四）基于本文的主要研究結(jié)論，提出我國沿海港口發(fā)展的調(diào)控建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of economy and foreign trade, the coastal ports of our country have made leapfrog development, and the port throughput is increasing at a high speed. This phenomenon induces the upsurge of domestic construction port, the large-scale expansion of new port. However, the growth of port throughput will eventually become saturated, and there will be excess capacity in coastal ports at the present pace of port construction. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out early warning research on port throughput growth in advance and to control the pace of port construction through relevant policies. Based on the relevant theories of international trade and international logistics, this paper explores and studies the theory and practice of port development. Combined with the relevant theory of port development, this paper mainly carries out four points of work: (1) redefining the period of port throughput growth slowdown, Through analyzing the evolution process of port throughput growth in industrialized countries and regions, the law of port throughput growth is demonstrated, and the internal relationship between port throughput growth and economic and trade indexes is deeply studied. (2) from the historical point of view, the paper studies the evolution of port throughput in Japan and Korea, and studies the correlation between port throughput and economic and trade indicators. The characteristics of GDP, per capita GDP, foreign trade and industrial structure in the period of slow growth of port throughput are analyzed and summarized. (3) on the basis of analyzing the development of port and economy and trade in China, on the one hand, through Logistic model Arima model and spherical dimension reduction component data method, the future growth trend of China's GDP, foreign trade volume, industrial structure and other economic and trade indicators are forecasted. Combining with the regular characteristics of these economic and trade indexes in the period when the port throughput growth of Japan and Korea is slowing down, this paper discusses the time period when the port throughput growth of our country is slowing down. On the other hand, according to the proven law of port throughput growth, Logistic model is established to predict the evolution process of China's coastal port throughput growth, and the time period for the slowdown of China's coastal port throughput growth is obtained. (4) based on the main conclusions of this paper, some suggestions on the regulation and control of the development of China's coastal ports are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 湯學(xué)俊;;三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)測方法與實證分析[J];商業(yè)研究;2005年22期

2 黃杰;欒維新;雷磊;;影響沿海港口發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟要素分析[J];大連海事大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2011年01期

3 王成金;于良;;世界集裝箱港的形成演化及與國際貿(mào)易的耦合機制[J];地理研究;2007年03期

4 陳航;欒維新;王躍偉;;港口增長的演化模型與實證分析[J];港工技術(shù);2009年02期

5 王岳平;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對交通運輸業(yè)發(fā)展影響的定量分析[J];管理世界;2004年06期

6 石友服;世界各國港口貨物吞吐量現(xiàn)狀[J];中國港口;1997年03期

7 劉卯忠;試析影響我國港口發(fā)展的要素體系[J];中國港口;1999年09期

8 賈大山;;2000～2010年沿海港口吞吐量發(fā)展特點——2000～2010年沿海港口發(fā)展特點分析之一[J];中國港口;2008年02期

9 付加鋒;劉毅;張雷;王麗艷;;中國東部沿海地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)測及其結(jié)構(gòu)效益評價[J];經(jīng)濟地理;2006年06期

10 李林;紀(jì)永波;顏衛(wèi)軍;;港口與國民經(jīng)濟的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展研究[J];武漢交通職業(yè)學(xué)院學(xué)報;2006年03期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 黃杰;沿海港口吞吐量與國民經(jīng)濟關(guān)系研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2011年

本文編號：2255258