【摘要】：近年來,隨著世界范圍內(nèi)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)及海洋石油開采力度的加大,海上大件運(yùn)輸由于具有專業(yè)化程度高、不可替代的優(yōu)勢而在航運(yùn)市場中的地位越來越重要,但對(duì)該市場的理論研究相對(duì)滯后,市場發(fā)展也欠成熟。本文不僅彌補(bǔ)了理論研究的不足,也為我國從事海上大件運(yùn)輸?shù)暮竭\(yùn)企業(yè)提供了一定的指導(dǎo)意義。 本文在對(duì)海上大件運(yùn)輸相關(guān)概念和理論介紹的基礎(chǔ)上,從貨種、船型、航線和港口等市場要素方面分析海上大件運(yùn)輸?shù)奶攸c(diǎn),并以典型貨種為例介紹大件運(yùn)輸操作流程及特點(diǎn)。通過對(duì)市場基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析,從供需角度論述海上大件運(yùn)輸市場的現(xiàn)狀和供需特征。同時(shí)借助波特五力分析模型定性地分析船東議價(jià)能力、貨主議價(jià)能力、潛在進(jìn)入者威脅、替代品威脅和船東間競爭這五力對(duì)市場競爭的影響,得出海上大件運(yùn)輸市場整體上競爭穩(wěn)定,但會(huì)逐漸趨于激烈的結(jié)論。然后對(duì)市場的影響因素和供需變化規(guī)律做出宏觀概括,并以鉆井平臺(tái)為例詳細(xì)分析市場未來供需變化。最后利用時(shí)間序列、趨勢外推等方法組合預(yù)測未來三年市場供需情況的發(fā)展趨勢,預(yù)測結(jié)果表明市場需求和供給都將穩(wěn)定增加,短期內(nèi)運(yùn)力將保持供給小于需求的狀況,但供給的增加速度大于需求增加速度,市場競爭會(huì)逐漸激烈。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of infrastructure construction and offshore oil exploitation in the world, the position of large-scale marine transportation is becoming more and more important because of its high specialization and irreplaceable advantage. However, the theoretical research on the market is lagging behind, and the development of the market is not mature. This paper not only makes up for the deficiency of theoretical research, but also provides some guiding significance for the shipping enterprises engaged in large-scale marine transportation in our country. Based on the introduction of related concepts and theories of large goods transportation at sea, this paper analyzes the characteristics of large goods transportation by sea from the aspects of cargo type, ship type, route and port, and introduces the operation flow and characteristics of large goods transportation by taking typical goods as an example. Based on the empirical analysis of the basic data of the market, this paper discusses the present situation and the characteristics of supply and demand of the large goods transportation market at sea from the point of view of supply and demand. At the same time, with the help of Porter's five-force analysis model, the paper qualitatively analyzes the influence of the five forces on the market competition, such as shipowner's bargaining power, cargo owner's bargaining power, potential entrant threat, substitute threat and the competition among shipowners. It comes to the conclusion that the market of large-scale goods at sea is stable in overall competition, but will gradually become more and more fierce. Then the influencing factors of market and the changing law of supply and demand are summarized macroscopically, and taking the drilling platform as an example, the change of market supply and demand in the future is analyzed in detail. Finally, using time series, trend extrapolation and other methods to forecast the development trend of market supply and demand in the next three years, the forecast results show that the market demand and supply will increase steadily, and the short-term transport capacity will keep the situation that supply is smaller than demand. But the increasing speed of supply is larger than the increasing speed of demand, and the market competition will be fierce gradually.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：U695.26

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