【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,港口在經(jīng)濟中的作用也越來越明顯,為了充分發(fā)揮港口在國民經(jīng)濟中地位和作用,有必要對港口服務供應鏈進行風險分析,識別港口服務供應鏈的風險因素,評價港口供應的風險等級,提出控制港口服務供應鏈風險策略,降低港口服務供應鏈的風險。 論文首先總結(jié)已有的研究成果,并在此基礎(chǔ)上定義了港口服務供應鏈的概念,同時分析了港口服務供應鏈的構(gòu)成以及港口服務供應鏈的特征；然后將風險管理理念引入港口服務供應鏈,確定了港口服務供應鏈風險概念和相應特征；隨后結(jié)合港口服務供應鏈的特征和不同風險識別方法的特征,論文選擇文獻分析和風險調(diào)查問卷相結(jié)合的方法識別港口服務供應鏈的風險因素,對將風險調(diào)查問卷結(jié)果導入SPSS軟件進行因子分析,最終得到港口服務供應鏈的風險因子有4大類31個；在辨識港口服務供應鏈風險因子的基礎(chǔ)上,論文將模糊數(shù)學和貝葉斯網(wǎng)理論結(jié)合起來構(gòu)建了港口服務供應鏈的風險評價模型；接著論文根據(jù)已經(jīng)構(gòu)建的風險識別體系和基于模糊貝葉斯的港口服務供應鏈評估模型,運用GeNIe軟件評估廣西某港口的某服務供應鏈的風險情況,并且運用貝葉斯網(wǎng)逆向推理的找出影響力最大的風險因子,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出針對性的風險控制建議,從而達到控制港口服務供應鏈風險的目的。 論文辨識了港口服務供應鏈風險因素和構(gòu)建基于模糊貝葉斯網(wǎng)的港口服務供應鏈風險評估模型,并通過實例驗證了本文模型的可行性,對于港口服務供應鏈的風險識別和風險控制有很好的理論以及實踐運用價值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the role of the port in the economy is becoming more and more obvious. In order to give full play to the status and role of the port in the national economy, it is necessary to carry out risk analysis on the port service supply chain. The risk factors of port service supply chain are identified, the risk grade of port supply chain is evaluated, and the risk strategy of port service supply chain is put forward to reduce the risk of port service supply chain. Firstly, this paper summarizes the existing research results, and then defines the concept of port service supply chain, and analyzes the structure of port service supply chain and the characteristics of port service supply chain. Then the risk management concept is introduced into the port service supply chain, and the risk concept and corresponding characteristics of the port service supply chain are determined, and then the characteristics of the port service supply chain and different risk identification methods are combined. The paper selects the method of combining literature analysis and risk survey questionnaire to identify the risk factors of port service supply chain, and carries on factor analysis to import the risk questionnaire results into SPSS software. Finally, the risk factors of the port service supply chain can be classified into 4 categories and 31 categories, and the risk factors of the port service supply chain can be identified on the basis of identifying the risk factors of the port service supply chain. This paper combines fuzzy mathematics and Bayesian network theory to construct the risk evaluation model of port service supply chain, and then according to the risk identification system and the evaluation model of port service supply chain based on fuzzy Bayes. Using GeNIe software to evaluate the risk of a certain service supply chain in a port in Guangxi, and using Bayesian network reverse reasoning to find out the most influential risk factors, and then put forward targeted risk control suggestions. In order to control the risk of port service supply chain. The paper identifies the risk factors of the port service supply chain and constructs the risk assessment model of the port service supply chain based on fuzzy Bayesian network. The feasibility of the model is verified by an example. It has good theoretical and practical value for risk identification and risk control in port service supply chain.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552.3

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