發(fā)布時間：2018-09-04 12:27

【摘要】：航運業(yè)歷來是一個高風險的行業(yè),同時它也是一個資本密集型行業(yè)。對于集裝箱班輪公司來說,集裝箱船舶是其主要資產(chǎn),每一次的船舶投資活動都會對企業(yè)產(chǎn)生重大影響。特別是新造船,融資投資額巨大,回收期長,其造船價格也隨著航運市場的波動不斷變化,班輪公司造船投資決策的成敗與否經(jīng)常關系到整個企業(yè)的生死存亡,因此,對于新造集裝箱船舶價格和投資時機選擇的研究至關重要。 本文首先對新造集裝箱船舶市場進行了定性的研究,介紹了集裝箱船舶及其發(fā)展趨勢,分析了新造集裝箱船市場的基礎特征和波動機理,詳細分析了影響新造集裝箱船舶價格主要因素,最后對新造集裝箱船舶市場的現(xiàn)狀和未來發(fā)展趨勢進行了分析。然后綜合資產(chǎn)定價法,供應-需求法和成本法中的價格決定因素,確定了二手船價格,期租租金,新船訂單與船隊規(guī)模比率,造船成本,匯率作為影響新造集裝箱船舶價格的主要因素,采用計量經(jīng)濟學方法對它們的相關關系進行了動態(tài)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)它們之間存在長期的協(xié)整關系,在此基礎上建立了向量誤差修正模型,很好地反映了新造集裝箱船舶價格與主要影響因素之間的動態(tài)關系及變化規(guī)律。 在研究新造集裝箱船舶價格的基礎上,分析了新造船價格與期租租金之間的內在理論和協(xié)整關系,借用股票市盈率思想,建立了價格／收益比率的移動平均投資時機模型,并驗證了其適用性。通過歷史數(shù)據(jù)模擬可以看出,向量誤差修正模型能準確地描述新造集裝箱船舶價格的波動規(guī)律,投資時機模型也準確反映了最佳的新造船投資時機,為航運公司進行新造集裝箱船舶價格研究和作出投資決策提供理論支持。
[Abstract]:The shipping industry has always been a high-risk industry, but it is also a capital-intensive industry. For container liner companies, container ships are their main assets, and every time the ship investment activities will have a significant impact on the enterprise. Especially for new shipbuilding, the financing investment is huge, the payback period is long, and the shipbuilding price will follow. As the fluctuation of shipping market changes constantly, the success or failure of liner company's shipbuilding investment decision is often related to the survival of the whole enterprise. Therefore, it is very important to study the price and investment timing of new container ships.
Firstly, this paper makes a qualitative study of the new container ship market, introduces the container ship and its development trend, analyzes the basic characteristics and fluctuation mechanism of the new container ship market, analyzes in detail the main factors affecting the price of the new container ship, and finally analyzes the current situation and future development trend of the new container ship market. Then the price determinants of asset pricing, supply-demand method and cost method are synthesized to determine the second-hand ship price, term rent, the ratio of new ship order to fleet size, shipbuilding cost and exchange rate as the main factors affecting the price of new container ships. The econometric method is used to analyze their correlation. The dynamic analysis shows that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between them. On this basis, a vector error correction model is established, which reflects the dynamic relationship between the price of newly-built container ships and the main influencing factors.
On the basis of studying the price of newly-built container ships, this paper analyzes the inherent theory and cointegration relationship between the price of new-built container ships and the term rent, borrows the idea of stock price-earnings ratio, establishes the moving average investment opportunity model of the price-earnings ratio, and verifies its applicability. The model can accurately describe the fluctuation law of the new container ship price, and the investment opportunity model also accurately reflects the best investment opportunity for the new container ship.
【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F550;F224

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本文編號：2222100