【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，我國(guó)的民用航空業(yè)得到了快速發(fā)展，行業(yè)規(guī)模逐漸壯大，服務(wù)能力顯著提高，為我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和人民生活水平的不斷提高做出了顯著貢獻(xiàn)。機(jī)場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展給機(jī)場(chǎng)的貨郵吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)帶來(lái)了很大的難題，影響機(jī)場(chǎng)規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的制定，成為制約機(jī)場(chǎng)發(fā)展的重要因素。本文分析了機(jī)場(chǎng)貨郵吞吐量的形成機(jī)理、影響因素，針對(duì)實(shí)例機(jī)場(chǎng)的具體情況，采用合適的預(yù)測(cè)模型，對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)的貨郵吞吐量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)分析。 本文分析了機(jī)場(chǎng)貨郵吞吐量的形成機(jī)理和影響因素，探討了機(jī)場(chǎng)貨郵吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)的常用模型算法，并進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析。針對(duì)赤峰玉龍機(jī)場(chǎng)的貨郵吞吐量增長(zhǎng)迅速、機(jī)場(chǎng)運(yùn)行負(fù)荷嚴(yán)重、急需擴(kuò)建等問(wèn)題，需要對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)的貨郵吞吐量進(jìn)行重新預(yù)測(cè)，以明確未來(lái)規(guī)劃目標(biāo)。首先，分析了赤峰玉龍機(jī)場(chǎng)的基本情況，采用主成分分析法對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)貨郵吞吐量的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析，結(jié)果顯示機(jī)場(chǎng)貨郵吞吐量主要受地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r因子和機(jī)場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)相關(guān)狀況因子的雙重影響。其次，采用支持向量機(jī)回歸模型對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)的貨郵吞吐量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，并結(jié)合ARMA模型和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證性分析，證明了預(yù)測(cè)方法的適應(yīng)性和預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性，結(jié)果顯示赤峰玉龍機(jī)場(chǎng)未來(lái)貨郵吞吐量增長(zhǎng)迅速，超過(guò)了以前制定的規(guī)劃目標(biāo)。再次，對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)的未來(lái)發(fā)展進(jìn)行了分析。運(yùn)用指數(shù)平滑模型對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)旅客吞吐量和年起降架次進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，，在此基礎(chǔ)上確定了機(jī)場(chǎng)未來(lái)擴(kuò)建目標(biāo)；進(jìn)行了機(jī)場(chǎng)發(fā)展支線航空的SWOT分析；提出了在穩(wěn)步發(fā)展區(qū)域性航空樞紐客貨業(yè)務(wù)基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步發(fā)展通用航空、拓展非航空業(yè)務(wù)等改善機(jī)場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)狀況的建議。最后，對(duì)全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié)分析和展望。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's civil aviation industry has developed rapidly, the scale of the industry has gradually expanded, and the service capacity has improved significantly, which has made a significant contribution to China's economic development and the continuous improvement of people's living standards. In this paper, the forming mechanism and influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput are analyzed. According to the actual situation of an airport, the airport cargo and postal throughput is forecasted and analyzed by using appropriate forecasting model.
In this paper, the forming mechanism and influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput are analyzed, and the common model algorithms for airport cargo and postal throughput prediction are discussed and compared. Firstly, the basic situation of Chifeng Yulong Airport is analyzed, and the principal component analysis method is used to analyze the influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput. The results show that the airport cargo and postal throughput is mainly affected by the factors of regional economic development and airport operation. Support Vector Machine Regression (SVM) model is used to predict the cargo and postal throughput of the airport, and ARMA model and econometric model are used to verify the applicability of the prediction method and the accuracy of the prediction results. The results show that the cargo and postal throughput of Chifeng Yulong Airport will increase rapidly in the future, exceeding the previous planning objectives. Thirdly, the future development of the airport is analyzed. The airport passenger throughput and annual takeoff and landing sorties are forecasted by using the exponential smoothing model, and the future expansion target of the airport is determined on this basis. The SWOT analysis of the airport branch Airlines is carried out, and the development of passenger and cargo services in regional aviation hub is proposed. Suggestions for improving Airport operation, such as developing general aviation and expanding non-aviation business, are put forward. Finally, the full text is summarized and analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F562.6

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本文編號(hào)：2218996