【摘要】：應(yīng)用ArcGIS空間分析和可達性評價模型,結(jié)合SPSS、Matlab等軟件,以鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟區(qū)為研究區(qū)域,選取1998年、2008年及2020規(guī)劃年為時間斷面,用柵格法測算交通可達性,分析可達性格局空間演變特征。根據(jù)城市質(zhì)量和時間距離,構(gòu)建經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系評價模型,回歸分析預(yù)測2020年城市質(zhì)量。對區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟總量空間集聚進行分析,并根據(jù)三個時間段的最大經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系格局演變,分析城市間經(jīng)濟輻射范圍和城市隸屬關(guān)系變化。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):區(qū)域內(nèi)可達性改善明顯,城市間可達性差距縮小,到2020年全區(qū)可基本實現(xiàn)一日交流;區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟總量集聚明顯,且處于極化狀態(tài);由于鄱陽湖湖體的阻隔,區(qū)域內(nèi)形成以南昌、九江、景德鎮(zhèn)三大經(jīng)濟中心地,其他為隸屬城市的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系格局;建議發(fā)展南昌至貴溪尤其是東鄉(xiāng)至鷹潭段的交通,使鷹潭成為區(qū)內(nèi)第四個經(jīng)濟中心地,實現(xiàn)全區(qū)均衡發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Using ArcGIS spatial analysis and accessibility evaluation model, combined with SPSS Matlab and other software, taking Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone as the study area, selecting the planning years of 1998, 2008 and 2020 as time section, using grid method to calculate the accessibility of traffic. The spatial evolution characteristics of reachability pattern are analyzed. According to the urban quality and time distance, the economic relation evaluation model is constructed, and the urban quality in 2020 is predicted by regression analysis. The spatial agglomeration of regional total economic volume is analyzed, and according to the evolution of the maximum economic relation pattern in three time periods, the change of economic radiation range and urban subordinate relationship between cities is analyzed. The results show that the accessibility improvement in the region is obvious, the gap between cities is narrowed, the whole region can basically realize a day of communication by 2020; the total economic volume in the region is obviously concentrated and in a polarized state; due to the blocking of the Poyang Lake body, The three major economic centers of Nanchang, Jiujiang and Jingdezhen are formed in the region, and the other is the economic linkage pattern attached to the city. It is suggested that the traffic between Nanchang and Guixi, especially between Dongxiang and Yingtan, should be developed, so that Yingtan will become the fourth economic center in the region. Realize the balanced development of the whole region.
【作者單位】： 江西師范大學(xué)鄱陽湖濕地與流域研究教育部重點實驗室;江西師范大學(xué)區(qū)域發(fā)展與規(guī)劃研究中心;江西師范大學(xué)地理與環(huán)境學(xué)院;江西教育學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41161021) 江西省高校科技計劃項目(GJJ12187) 鄱陽湖濕地與流域研究教育部重點實驗室(江西師范大學(xué))“贛鄱新星”種子基金支持項目(PKGP2012004)
【分類號】：F512.7;F224

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