本文選題：PPP項(xiàng)目 + 交通項(xiàng)目��； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：PPP (Public Private Partnership,即政府與社會(huì)資本合作)模式,在新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)需求強(qiáng)勁、我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展全面進(jìn)入“新常態(tài)”的大背景下,成為了基建投融資改革的重要方向。交通項(xiàng)目投資規(guī)模大,涉及范圍廣,技術(shù)難度高,時(shí)間跨度長,參與者之間關(guān)系錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜,項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極大,這些特點(diǎn)使其極為適合采用PPP模式,但同時(shí),也帶來了諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策難題。交通PPP項(xiàng)目從項(xiàng)目前期階段、建設(shè)階段直至運(yùn)營階段,各階段均伴隨著決定項(xiàng)目成敗的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策問題。這些關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策問題所處階段不同、產(chǎn)生機(jī)理各異,不能一概而論。本文梳理出了項(xiàng)目全壽命周期各階段的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策問題,結(jié)合我國四個(gè)典型交通工程實(shí)例:溫州甌江北口綜合交通PPP項(xiàng)目、成都市第二繞城高速公路PPP項(xiàng)目、成都市地鐵18號(hào)線PPP項(xiàng)目和西堠門跨海大橋?yàn)楣こ虒?shí)例,針對(duì)項(xiàng)目壽命周期內(nèi)各階段關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策問題展開研究。1.在文獻(xiàn)研究和案例分析的基礎(chǔ)上,識(shí)別出了項(xiàng)目的初步風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單,結(jié)合我國工程實(shí)例以專家訪談的方式對(duì)初步清單進(jìn)行了改進(jìn),獲得了交通PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單;通過問卷調(diào)查的方式獲取了數(shù)據(jù),以SPSS、Mplus等軟件為工具,分別用一半數(shù)據(jù)樣本對(duì)清單中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素作了探索性因子分析和驗(yàn)證性因子分析,劃分出了 8個(gè)新維度,利用最大方差法旋轉(zhuǎn)成分矩陣,將因子命名,驗(yàn)證性因子分析驗(yàn)證了提取因子的有效性;計(jì)算了各因子得分系數(shù),根據(jù)因子貢獻(xiàn)率構(gòu)建了綜合因子得分公式,結(jié)合成都市第二繞城PPP項(xiàng)目數(shù)據(jù)求得了各因子得分及綜合因子得分,根據(jù)得分結(jié)果對(duì)公因子做了詳細(xì)分析。2.針對(duì)交通PPP項(xiàng)目前期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)方案決策問題,把前文研究獲取的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單作為評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,引入云模型理論設(shè)計(jì)了一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)方案決策方法。提出了一套基于云厚度的循環(huán)改進(jìn)打分法,解決了現(xiàn)有方法少數(shù)派意見容易被統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果忽略的問題。以Matlab軟件為工具,通過編程實(shí)現(xiàn)了模型的計(jì)算并輸出了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)方案決策的三維云圖。結(jié)合成都市第二繞城高速PPP項(xiàng)目為工程實(shí)例進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,證實(shí)了方法的有效性。3.針對(duì)交通PPP項(xiàng)目前期階段融資方案決策問題,構(gòu)建了一套適用于交通PPP項(xiàng)目的融資方案指標(biāo)評(píng)審體系和一種基于粗糙集理論的融資方案決策方法,運(yùn)用遺傳模擬退火方法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了離散化處理,基于粗糙集理論來對(duì)各影響因素進(jìn)行合理的約簡(jiǎn)篩選,利用基于粗糙集和條件信息熵的方法計(jì)算約簡(jiǎn)后的指標(biāo)評(píng)審體系中屬性的權(quán)重,代入灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法中求得灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度,根據(jù)關(guān)聯(lián)度的大小對(duì)各方案進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)合成都地鐵18號(hào)線PPP項(xiàng)目為工程實(shí)例進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,證實(shí)了方法的有效性。4.對(duì)于項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略決策問題,在分析交通PPP項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元事件時(shí)項(xiàng)目系統(tǒng)中各因素變化情況的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了相應(yīng)的動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)SD模型,結(jié)合成都市第二繞城高速公路PPP項(xiàng)目為工程實(shí)例,運(yùn)用VensimDSS軟件進(jìn)行了模型檢驗(yàn),并模擬了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)漣漪通過作用于項(xiàng)目內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)項(xiàng)目整體目標(biāo)產(chǎn)生動(dòng)態(tài)影響的過程。通過單因素影響力分析、多因素耦合效應(yīng)分析及政策設(shè)計(jì)三個(gè)分析角度層層推進(jìn),探討了不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略在改善項(xiàng)目整體目標(biāo)方面的效果。5.針對(duì)交通PPP項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營階段應(yīng)急風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策問題,基于GPS衛(wèi)星定位技術(shù)、RS遙感技術(shù)、車載終端PDA等技術(shù),以開發(fā)軟件Visual Studio 2005、數(shù)據(jù)庫軟件SQL server2005為工具,構(gòu)建了一套交通PPP項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營階段應(yīng)急風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策支持系統(tǒng),并結(jié)合實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù),給出了系統(tǒng)的具體應(yīng)用流程。本文研究成果可為任一交通PPP項(xiàng)目、壽命周期不同階段的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策問題提供參考。
[Abstract]:The model of PPP (Public Private Partnership, that is, the cooperation between government and social capital), has strong demand in the new urbanization construction. Under the background of the "new normal", China's economic development has become an important direction of the investment and financing reform of infrastructure construction. The investment scale of the traffic project is large, the technical difficulty is high, the time span is long, and the participants are long. The relationship is complex and the project risk is great. These characteristics make it very suitable for the use of PPP model, but at the same time, it also brings a lot of risk decision problems. The traffic PPP project from the early stage of the project, the construction stage to the operation stage, each stage is accompanied by the key risk decision problem that determines the failure of the project. These key risk decision questions are asked. In this paper, the key risk decision problems of all stages of the whole life cycle of the project are combed, and the four typical traffic engineering examples in China: the PPP project of the Wenzhou Ou river north Kou comprehensive transportation, the PPP project of the high speed highway in Chengdu City, the PPP project of the Chengdu metro line 18 and the line 18 of the metro line 18. On the basis of literature research and case analysis,.1. has identified the initial risk list of the project on the basis of literature research and case analysis, and improved the initial list in the way of expert interview in China, and obtained the traffic PPP project. In the way of questionnaire survey, we obtain data from the way of questionnaire survey, use SPSS, Mplus and other software as tools, make exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis on the risk factors in the list with half data samples, divide 8 new dimensions, use the maximum variance method to rotate the component matrix, name the factor, and analyze the confirmatory factor analysis. The validity of the extraction factor is verified, the score coefficient of each factor is calculated and the comprehensive factor scoring formula is constructed according to the factor contribution rate. The score of each factor and the score of the comprehensive factor are obtained by combining the data of the second round city PPP project in Chengdu city. According to the result, the risk of the public factor is detailed and analyzed by.2. in the early stage of the risk of the traffic PPP project. To share the decision problem of the scheme, the risk list obtained by the previous study is used as the evaluation index system, and a risk sharing scheme decision method is designed by introducing the cloud model theory. A set of cyclic improved scoring method based on cloud thickness is proposed to solve the problem that the existing methods are easily ignored by the statistical results of the minority opinion. The Matlab software is used as a method. The tool, through programming, realizes the calculation of the model and outputs the 3D cloud map of the project risk sharing scheme. Combining with the example of the project example of the second round city high-speed PPP project in Chengdu, the validity of the method.3. is proved to be applied to the traffic P for the decision problem of the financing scheme in the early stage of the traffic PPP project. The financing scheme index evaluation system of the PP project and a financing scheme decision method based on rough set theory are used to discretize the data by using the genetic simulated annealing method. Based on the rough set theory, the influence factors are reasonably reduced, and the reduction based on rough set and conditional information entropy is used to calculate the reduction. The weight of the attribute in the index evaluation system is given to the grey relational analysis method to obtain the grey correlation degree. According to the size of the correlation degree, the project is evaluated. The PPP project of Chengdu metro line 18 is used to carry out an empirical study. It is proved that the effectiveness of the method.4. is divided into the decision problem of the risk coping strategy in the project construction stage. On the basis of the change of various factors in the project system during the construction phase of the traffic PPP project, the corresponding dynamic risk SD model is constructed. The model test is carried out with the VensimDSS software, combined with the PPP project of the second bypass Expressway in Chengdu, and the effect of risk element and risk ripple is simulated. The process of dynamic impact of the internal structure of the project on the overall objectives of the project. Through the single factor influence analysis, multi factor coupling effect analysis and policy design three analysis angles, the effect of different risk coping strategies on the overall goal of the project is discussed..5. is aimed at the emergency risk of the traffic PPP project. Decision problem, based on GPS satellite positioning technology, RS remote sensing technology, vehicle terminal PDA and other technologies, with the development software Visual Studio 2005 and the database software SQL Server2005 as the tool, a set of emergency risk decision support system for traffic PPP project operation stage is constructed, and the concrete application process of the system is given in combination with the actual data. This paper is studied in this paper. The results can provide reference for any transportation PPP project and the key risk decision-making problems at different stages of life cycle.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F283;F512

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本文編號(hào)：2114978