本文選題：PPP項目 + 交通項目��； 參考：《西南交通大學》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：PPP (Public Private Partnership,即政府與社會資本合作)模式,在新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設需求強勁、我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展全面進入“新常態(tài)”的大背景下,成為了基建投融資改革的重要方向。交通項目投資規(guī)模大,涉及范圍廣,技術難度高,時間跨度長,參與者之間關系錯綜復雜,項目風險極大,這些特點使其極為適合采用PPP模式,但同時,也帶來了諸多風險決策難題。交通PPP項目從項目前期階段、建設階段直至運營階段,各階段均伴隨著決定項目成敗的關鍵風險決策問題。這些關鍵風險決策問題所處階段不同、產(chǎn)生機理各異,不能一概而論。本文梳理出了項目全壽命周期各階段的關鍵風險決策問題,結合我國四個典型交通工程實例:溫州甌江北口綜合交通PPP項目、成都市第二繞城高速公路PPP項目、成都市地鐵18號線PPP項目和西堠門跨海大橋為工程實例,針對項目壽命周期內(nèi)各階段關鍵風險決策問題展開研究。1.在文獻研究和案例分析的基礎上,識別出了項目的初步風險清單,結合我國工程實例以專家訪談的方式對初步清單進行了改進,獲得了交通PPP項目風險清單;通過問卷調查的方式獲取了數(shù)據(jù),以SPSS、Mplus等軟件為工具,分別用一半數(shù)據(jù)樣本對清單中的風險因素作了探索性因子分析和驗證性因子分析,劃分出了 8個新維度,利用最大方差法旋轉成分矩陣,將因子命名,驗證性因子分析驗證了提取因子的有效性;計算了各因子得分系數(shù),根據(jù)因子貢獻率構建了綜合因子得分公式,結合成都市第二繞城PPP項目數(shù)據(jù)求得了各因子得分及綜合因子得分,根據(jù)得分結果對公因子做了詳細分析。2.針對交通PPP項目前期階段風險分擔方案決策問題,把前文研究獲取的風險清單作為評價指標體系,引入云模型理論設計了一種風險分擔方案決策方法。提出了一套基于云厚度的循環(huán)改進打分法,解決了現(xiàn)有方法少數(shù)派意見容易被統(tǒng)計結果忽略的問題。以Matlab軟件為工具,通過編程實現(xiàn)了模型的計算并輸出了項目風險分擔方案決策的三維云圖。結合成都市第二繞城高速PPP項目為工程實例進行了實證研究,證實了方法的有效性。3.針對交通PPP項目前期階段融資方案決策問題,構建了一套適用于交通PPP項目的融資方案指標評審體系和一種基于粗糙集理論的融資方案決策方法,運用遺傳模擬退火方法對數(shù)據(jù)進行了離散化處理,基于粗糙集理論來對各影響因素進行合理的約簡篩選,利用基于粗糙集和條件信息熵的方法計算約簡后的指標評審體系中屬性的權重,代入灰色關聯(lián)分析法中求得灰色關聯(lián)度,根據(jù)關聯(lián)度的大小對各方案進行評價。結合成都地鐵18號線PPP項目為工程實例進行實證研究,證實了方法的有效性。4.對于項目建設階段風險應對策略決策問題,在分析交通PPP項目建設階段發(fā)生風險元事件時項目系統(tǒng)中各因素變化情況的基礎上,構建了相應的動態(tài)風險SD模型,結合成都市第二繞城高速公路PPP項目為工程實例,運用VensimDSS軟件進行了模型檢驗,并模擬了風險元和風險漣漪通過作用于項目內(nèi)部結構對項目整體目標產(chǎn)生動態(tài)影響的過程。通過單因素影響力分析、多因素耦合效應分析及政策設計三個分析角度層層推進,探討了不同風險應對策略在改善項目整體目標方面的效果。5.針對交通PPP項目運營階段應急風險決策問題,基于GPS衛(wèi)星定位技術、RS遙感技術、車載終端PDA等技術,以開發(fā)軟件Visual Studio 2005、數(shù)據(jù)庫軟件SQL server2005為工具,構建了一套交通PPP項目運營階段應急風險決策支持系統(tǒng),并結合實際數(shù)據(jù),給出了系統(tǒng)的具體應用流程。本文研究成果可為任一交通PPP項目、壽命周期不同階段的關鍵風險決策問題提供參考。
[Abstract]:The model of PPP (Public Private Partnership, that is, the cooperation between government and social capital), has strong demand in the new urbanization construction. Under the background of the "new normal", China's economic development has become an important direction of the investment and financing reform of infrastructure construction. The investment scale of the traffic project is large, the technical difficulty is high, the time span is long, and the participants are long. The relationship is complex and the project risk is great. These characteristics make it very suitable for the use of PPP model, but at the same time, it also brings a lot of risk decision problems. The traffic PPP project from the early stage of the project, the construction stage to the operation stage, each stage is accompanied by the key risk decision problem that determines the failure of the project. These key risk decision questions are asked. In this paper, the key risk decision problems of all stages of the whole life cycle of the project are combed, and the four typical traffic engineering examples in China: the PPP project of the Wenzhou Ou river north Kou comprehensive transportation, the PPP project of the high speed highway in Chengdu City, the PPP project of the Chengdu metro line 18 and the line 18 of the metro line 18. On the basis of literature research and case analysis,.1. has identified the initial risk list of the project on the basis of literature research and case analysis, and improved the initial list in the way of expert interview in China, and obtained the traffic PPP project. In the way of questionnaire survey, we obtain data from the way of questionnaire survey, use SPSS, Mplus and other software as tools, make exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis on the risk factors in the list with half data samples, divide 8 new dimensions, use the maximum variance method to rotate the component matrix, name the factor, and analyze the confirmatory factor analysis. The validity of the extraction factor is verified, the score coefficient of each factor is calculated and the comprehensive factor scoring formula is constructed according to the factor contribution rate. The score of each factor and the score of the comprehensive factor are obtained by combining the data of the second round city PPP project in Chengdu city. According to the result, the risk of the public factor is detailed and analyzed by.2. in the early stage of the risk of the traffic PPP project. To share the decision problem of the scheme, the risk list obtained by the previous study is used as the evaluation index system, and a risk sharing scheme decision method is designed by introducing the cloud model theory. A set of cyclic improved scoring method based on cloud thickness is proposed to solve the problem that the existing methods are easily ignored by the statistical results of the minority opinion. The Matlab software is used as a method. The tool, through programming, realizes the calculation of the model and outputs the 3D cloud map of the project risk sharing scheme. Combining with the example of the project example of the second round city high-speed PPP project in Chengdu, the validity of the method.3. is proved to be applied to the traffic P for the decision problem of the financing scheme in the early stage of the traffic PPP project. The financing scheme index evaluation system of the PP project and a financing scheme decision method based on rough set theory are used to discretize the data by using the genetic simulated annealing method. Based on the rough set theory, the influence factors are reasonably reduced, and the reduction based on rough set and conditional information entropy is used to calculate the reduction. The weight of the attribute in the index evaluation system is given to the grey relational analysis method to obtain the grey correlation degree. According to the size of the correlation degree, the project is evaluated. The PPP project of Chengdu metro line 18 is used to carry out an empirical study. It is proved that the effectiveness of the method.4. is divided into the decision problem of the risk coping strategy in the project construction stage. On the basis of the change of various factors in the project system during the construction phase of the traffic PPP project, the corresponding dynamic risk SD model is constructed. The model test is carried out with the VensimDSS software, combined with the PPP project of the second bypass Expressway in Chengdu, and the effect of risk element and risk ripple is simulated. The process of dynamic impact of the internal structure of the project on the overall objectives of the project. Through the single factor influence analysis, multi factor coupling effect analysis and policy design three analysis angles, the effect of different risk coping strategies on the overall goal of the project is discussed..5. is aimed at the emergency risk of the traffic PPP project. Decision problem, based on GPS satellite positioning technology, RS remote sensing technology, vehicle terminal PDA and other technologies, with the development software Visual Studio 2005 and the database software SQL Server2005 as the tool, a set of emergency risk decision support system for traffic PPP project operation stage is constructed, and the concrete application process of the system is given in combination with the actual data. This paper is studied in this paper. The results can provide reference for any transportation PPP project and the key risk decision-making problems at different stages of life cycle.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283;F512

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本文編號：2114978