本文選題：散貨船市場(chǎng) + 散貨船價(jià)格��； 參考：《江蘇科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，散貨船市場(chǎng)得到快速發(fā)展并逐漸占據(jù)了世界新造船市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)地位，散貨船也成為眾多特別是中國(guó)的船東與投資者的投資對(duì)象。然而，隨著大量新船的交付和相關(guān)市場(chǎng)因素的變動(dòng)，散貨船市場(chǎng)的未來(lái)發(fā)展也呈現(xiàn)很多不確定性。因此，對(duì)于散貨船的新造船價(jià)格與二手船價(jià)格波動(dòng)的研究就顯得十分必要。 本文首先分析了國(guó)際散貨船行業(yè)的特點(diǎn)，發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和未來(lái)的市場(chǎng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。在對(duì)國(guó)際散貨船市場(chǎng)的分析和對(duì)引起散貨船價(jià)格（包括新造船價(jià)格與二手船價(jià)格）波動(dòng)各因素（如造船成本、匯率、利率、船舶供應(yīng)量等）的分析基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用協(xié)整和誤差修正模型（ECM）的理論分別建立了散貨船新造船價(jià)格和二手船價(jià)格模型。 其次，論文對(duì)散貨船的四大船型（靈便型、大靈便型、巴拿馬型和好望角型）的價(jià)格變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)分別做了分析，并得出其短期波動(dòng)和長(zhǎng)期波動(dòng)的影響因素和影響的彈性系數(shù)。結(jié)論表明，雖然四種散貨船型市場(chǎng)影響因素存在異質(zhì)性，，但是從總體上看，散貨船新造船價(jià)格受成本驅(qū)動(dòng)而二手船價(jià)格受市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)。 最后，論文對(duì)文中運(yùn)用的協(xié)整和誤差修正模型進(jìn)行了診斷檢驗(yàn)和模擬預(yù)測(cè)。在得出模型準(zhǔn)確的基礎(chǔ)上，文章提出了一種可供船舶投資者投資決策的工具和對(duì)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制方法和建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the bulk carrier market has developed rapidly and has gradually occupied the leading position of the new shipbuilding market in the world. Bulk carrier has also become the investment object of many Chinese shipowners and investors. However, with the delivery of a large number of new ships and changes in the related market factors, the future development of the bulk carrier market also presents a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to study the price of the new ship and the fluctuation of the price of the second-hand ship.
This paper first analyzes the characteristics, development status and future market trend of the international bulk carrier industry. On the basis of the analysis of the international bulk carrier market and the analysis of the factors causing the volatility of the bulk cargo (including the new shipbuilding price and the second-hand ship price), on the basis of the analysis of the shipbuilding cost, the exchange rate, the rate of profit, the supply of ships, etc. The theory of error correction model (ECM) establishes the new shipbuilding price and the second-hand ship price model of bulk carriers respectively.
Secondly, the paper analyzes the price changes of the four types of bulk cargo ships (such as handy type, great spirit type, Panama type and Cape of Good Hope type), and obtains the influence factors and the elastic coefficient of the short-term fluctuation and long-term fluctuation. The conclusion shows that although the influence factors of the four kinds of freighter market are heterogeneous, they are from the whole As a matter of fact, the price of new bulk carriers is driven by cost and the price of second-hand ships is driven by the market.
Finally, the paper makes a diagnostic test and a simulation prediction for the Cointegration and error correction model used in the paper. On the basis of the accuracy of the model, the paper puts forward a tool for the investment decision of the ship investors and the control methods and suggestions for the investment risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F550.5;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 蘇紹娟;沿海干散貨船舶運(yùn)輸?shù)牟淮_定性分析方法研究及應(yīng)用[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2007年

本文編號(hào)：2105673