本文選題：公交客流OD矩陣 + OD調(diào)查　； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著城市建設(shè)迅速擴(kuò)張和市區(qū)人口的急劇增長(zhǎng),城市公交問(wèn)題越發(fā)成為關(guān)系城市發(fā)展和居民舒適生活的關(guān)鍵。良好的公交體系能夠大幅緩解城市交通壓力,為城市綜合發(fā)展起到疏通筋絡(luò)的作用。因此無(wú)論是已成相當(dāng)規(guī)模的大城市還是正在建設(shè)的中小型城市,都在積極建設(shè)、完善、優(yōu)化著公交網(wǎng)絡(luò)。公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化是改善城市公交的重要課題。在公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化研究中,從經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷法到現(xiàn)在的數(shù)學(xué)尋優(yōu)法,經(jīng)歷了無(wú)數(shù)發(fā)展與更新。當(dāng)代,在計(jì)算機(jī)強(qiáng)大計(jì)算能力的支持下,應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)知識(shí)分析研究公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化問(wèn)題成為主流。而這些方法都會(huì)應(yīng)用到一種數(shù)據(jù)模型,就是OD矩陣。OD矩陣作為一種理想輸入,在公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化中占有重要地位。然而OD矩陣數(shù)據(jù)非天然呈現(xiàn),它是通過(guò)調(diào)查并對(duì)調(diào)查后的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行科學(xué)的處理后才能獲得。本文以獲取完整公交客流OD矩陣數(shù)據(jù)的方法為核心內(nèi)容進(jìn)行課題研究,為公交線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化奠定重要基礎(chǔ)。 OD矩陣數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查方法多種多樣,針對(duì)城市大小、調(diào)查人員多少和對(duì)調(diào)查結(jié)果精度的要求差別會(huì)有很大的不同,對(duì)方法的選擇是個(gè)多方面量化權(quán)衡的問(wèn)題。本文重點(diǎn)研究適用于中小城市以及在較少調(diào)查資源的前提下的調(diào)查方法,應(yīng)用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)尤其是抽樣理論方面的知識(shí),對(duì)方法的可行性、可靠性、效率與成本進(jìn)行分析,并結(jié)合玉溪市公交OD調(diào)查工作進(jìn)行實(shí)例分析,創(chuàng)新性地采用多階段抽樣調(diào)查方法,依次對(duì)時(shí)間、車(chē)輛、乘客進(jìn)行合理抽樣并設(shè)計(jì)出與抽樣方法相應(yīng)的調(diào)查問(wèn)卷,并證明了該方法在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中的優(yōu)越性。而后對(duì)調(diào)查所得的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,依然應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)原理,首先針對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量設(shè)計(jì)相應(yīng)的插補(bǔ)方法,討論調(diào)研誤差對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果的影響。然后對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析,啟發(fā)式地運(yùn)用抽樣調(diào)查得到的部分OD數(shù)據(jù)與流量數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合,擴(kuò)樣估計(jì)全體數(shù)據(jù),得到能夠作為線網(wǎng)優(yōu)化良好輸入的完整的OD矩陣數(shù)據(jù)。最后結(jié)合玉溪市項(xiàng)目輸出實(shí)例的OD矩陣結(jié)果。 在抽樣理論支持下,本文的調(diào)查方法與相應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)處理方法切合實(shí)際并帶有啟發(fā)性,多步驟方法之間的連接清晰合理,輸出結(jié)果良好。
[Abstract]:With the rapid expansion of urban construction and the rapid growth of urban population, urban public transport has become the key to urban development and residents' comfortable life. A good public transport system can greatly relieve the pressure of urban traffic and play a role in the comprehensive development of the city. Therefore, both large cities and small and medium-sized cities are actively building, perfecting and optimizing the public transport network. The optimization of bus network is an important task to improve urban public transportation. In the research of bus network optimization, from the empirical judgment method to the present mathematical optimization method, it has experienced numerous developments and updates. Nowadays, with the support of powerful computing power of computer, the application of mathematical knowledge to the analysis of bus network optimization has become the mainstream. These methods will be applied to a data model, namely OD matrix. OD matrix, as an ideal input, plays an important role in bus network optimization. However, OD matrix data is not natural, it is through investigation and scientific processing of the data after the survey can be obtained. In this paper, the method of obtaining complete OD matrix data of bus passenger flow is taken as the core of the research, which lays an important foundation for the optimization of bus network. There are many methods of OD matrix data investigation, aiming at the size of the city. The number of investigators is different from the requirement of the accuracy of survey results, and the choice of methods is a question of quantitative trade-off in many aspects. This paper focuses on the investigation methods suitable for small and medium-sized cities and under the premise of less investigation resources, and applies mathematical statistics, especially the knowledge of sampling theory, to analyze the feasibility, reliability, efficiency and cost of the methods. Combining with the actual case study of bus OD investigation in Yuxi City, the author innovatively adopts multi-stage sampling survey method, carries on the reasonable sampling to the time, the vehicle, the passenger in turn, and designs the questionnaire corresponding to the sampling method. The superiority of this method in practical application is proved. Then the detailed statistical analysis of the data obtained from the survey is carried out, and the principle of statistics is still applied. Firstly, the corresponding interpolation method is designed for the quality of the data, and the influence of the survey error on the data results is discussed. Then the data are predicted and analyzed, and some OD data are combined with traffic data in heuristic way, and the whole data are expanded to obtain the complete OD matrix data which can be used as a good input for network optimization. Finally, the OD matrix result of Yuxi project output example is combined. With the support of sampling theory, the investigation method and the corresponding data processing method are practical and enlightening, the connection between the multi-step methods is clear and reasonable, and the output results are good.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F570

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