本文選題：交通行業(yè) + 碳排放��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)城市化進(jìn)程步伐的持續(xù)加快,我國(guó)交通行業(yè)的發(fā)展越來(lái)越迅速,使得煤炭和石油等化石能源消費(fèi)出現(xiàn)大幅度增加,進(jìn)而引起我國(guó)交通行業(yè)二氧化碳排放量迅速增加。因此,對(duì)我國(guó)交通行業(yè)碳排放影響因素與減排潛力進(jìn)行深入研究在理論與實(shí)踐上都具有重大意義。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),我國(guó)交通行業(yè)碳排放占我國(guó)總碳排放量的比例接近10%,隨著我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn),我國(guó)交通行業(yè)碳排放量將會(huì)持續(xù)增加。在這個(gè)背景下,本文查閱大量的國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn),對(duì)我國(guó)交通行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及特征進(jìn)行分析,同時(shí),對(duì)我國(guó)交通行業(yè)近幾年及未來(lái)幾年的碳排放量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。本文利用LMDI分解方法將我國(guó)交通行業(yè)碳排放影響因素分解為碳排放系數(shù)效應(yīng)、能源強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)、運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、運(yùn)輸強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)、城鎮(zhèn)化水平效應(yīng)、收入效應(yīng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)度以及人口規(guī)模效應(yīng)9種影響因素。通過(guò)分析可知,收入效應(yīng)和城鎮(zhèn)化水平效應(yīng)是促進(jìn)我國(guó)交通行業(yè)碳排放增長(zhǎng)的主要因素。同時(shí),運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)以及人口規(guī)模效應(yīng)三個(gè)因素也都不同程度的促進(jìn)了交通行業(yè)碳排放的增長(zhǎng),但是作用相對(duì)較小;而能源強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)和運(yùn)輸強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)則是抑制我國(guó)交通行業(yè)碳排放增長(zhǎng)的主要因素。本文針對(duì)不同效應(yīng)的分析結(jié)果制定三種減排潛力情景,經(jīng)過(guò)模擬分析可知,我國(guó)交通行業(yè)具有很大的減排潛力,尤其是交通行業(yè)中公路運(yùn)輸部門(mén)的減排潛力最大。根據(jù)文章分析結(jié)果,本文提出了一系列有針對(duì)性的政策建議,為以后我國(guó)政府在交通行業(yè)制定節(jié)能減排策略提供依據(jù)和參考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's urbanization, the consumption of fossil energy, such as coal and oil, is increasing rapidly, which leads to the rapid increase of carbon dioxide emissions from China's transportation industry. Therefore, it is of great significance in theory and practice to study the influence factors and potential of carbon emission reduction in China's transportation industry. According to statistics, the proportion of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry is close to 10 percent of the total carbon emissions. With the development of urbanization and industrialization, the carbon emissions of China's transport industry will continue to increase. In this context, this paper reviews a large number of domestic and foreign literature, analyzes the current situation and characteristics of China's transport industry, at the same time, forecasts the carbon emissions in recent years and in the next few years. This paper uses LMDI decomposition method to decompose the factors of carbon emission into carbon emission coefficient effect, energy intensity effect, transport structure effect, transport intensity effect, urbanization level effect, income effect, industrial structure effect. The third industry contribution degree and the population scale effect 9 kinds of influence factors. The results show that the income effect and urbanization level effect are the main factors to promote the increase of carbon emissions in China's transport industry. At the same time, the transport structure effect, the industrial structure effect and the population scale effect all promoted the transportation industry carbon emission growth to varying degrees, but the function is relatively small; Energy intensity effect and transport intensity effect are the main factors to restrain the increase of carbon emission in China's transportation industry. According to the analysis results of different effects, this paper formulates three scenarios of emission reduction potential. Through simulation analysis, it can be seen that China's transport industry has great emission reduction potential, especially the road transport sector has the greatest emission reduction potential. According to the analysis results, this paper puts forward a series of targeted policy recommendations, which provides the basis and reference for our government to formulate energy-saving and emission reduction strategies in the transportation industry in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X322;F512.3

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