本文選題：鐵路大宗貨物 + 運(yùn)價浮動��； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：鐵路運(yùn)價作為交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的主要調(diào)節(jié)杠桿,其運(yùn)用的合理性,直接關(guān)系到鐵路運(yùn)輸企業(yè)的經(jīng)營效益和發(fā)展前途。作為鐵路的重要運(yùn)輸對象,大宗貨物運(yùn)價尤為重要。最近隨著鐵路貨運(yùn)和供給側(cè)改革,鐵總針對大宗貨物運(yùn)價浮動,提出"競爭一口價"、運(yùn)價下浮策略,并進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大煤炭、石油等大宗品類的運(yùn)價范圍,表明鐵路要將大宗貨物運(yùn)價逐步推向市場化,原有的運(yùn)價調(diào)整措施是將重點(diǎn)運(yùn)輸物資運(yùn)價視為我國宏觀調(diào)控的手段,已不再適合鐵路向企業(yè)式經(jīng)營的運(yùn)價發(fā)展。因此,如何科學(xué)合理的調(diào)整鐵路大宗貨物運(yùn)價,落實鐵路大宗貨物運(yùn)價浮動政策,是適應(yīng)鐵路貨運(yùn)和供給側(cè)改革關(guān)鍵的一步。本文首先介紹了研究的背景及意義,在綜述國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,明確了研究內(nèi)容和技術(shù)路線。其次,通過分析現(xiàn)行的貨物運(yùn)價調(diào)整模式與大宗貨物運(yùn)價浮動政策,指出了我國鐵路大宗貨物運(yùn)價浮動在理論技術(shù)支撐、響應(yīng)時效、反映市場特性三方面存在的不足。通過對鐵路大宗貨物運(yùn)價浮動的分析,認(rèn)為運(yùn)輸需求是重要的影響因素,并從運(yùn)輸需求特點(diǎn)入手,發(fā)現(xiàn)了利用運(yùn)輸需求的波動性來實現(xiàn)運(yùn)價浮動的更具實踐性。接著,運(yùn)用運(yùn)輸波動理論,建立X-12-ARIMA模型,將采集的H、G鐵路局大宗貨物季度運(yùn)量數(shù)據(jù)代入,分離出包含有趨勢、季節(jié)、周期和不規(guī)則4個波動成分,逐一分析了各成分的內(nèi)容、表現(xiàn)、及影響變化的原因,H、G鐵路局大宗季度運(yùn)量波動分析結(jié)果包括:需求量波動范圍,需求波動的主要影響成分,按季度運(yùn)量及波動特點(diǎn)劃分出高峰和低谷季度。然后,根據(jù)運(yùn)輸價格理論和運(yùn)價浮動原則,建立運(yùn)價浮動模型,模型分為高峰和低谷季度運(yùn)價浮動。為了提高大宗貨運(yùn)量與企業(yè)經(jīng)營質(zhì)量,設(shè)立低谷季度以增量、高峰季度以增利為運(yùn)價浮動的目標(biāo),并在國家政策規(guī)定的運(yùn)價上限和維持企業(yè)基本經(jīng)營需求的運(yùn)價下限之間,討論了這兩季度的最優(yōu)浮動運(yùn)價。最后,以H鐵路局為例,通過對比運(yùn)價浮動前后運(yùn)量與運(yùn)費(fèi)收入,驗證模型的合理性和可行性,并分析可能存在的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險,提出相應(yīng)指導(dǎo)性調(diào)整建議。
[Abstract]:As the main regulating lever of transportation industry, railway freight rate has a direct bearing on the operation benefit and development prospect of railway transportation enterprises. As an important object of railway transportation, bulk freight rates are particularly important. Recently, with the railway freight transport and supply-side reform, iron has put forward the strategy of "competing for one price", the floating strategy of freight rate, and further expanding the range of freight rates for large categories such as coal, oil, etc., in view of the fluctuation of bulk freight rates. It shows that the railway should push the bulk freight rate to the market step by step. The original measure of adjusting the freight rate is to regard the freight rate of the key transportation material as the means of macro-control in our country, and it is no longer suitable for the railway to develop to the enterprise type freight rate. Therefore, how to adjust the railway bulk freight rate scientifically and reasonably, and how to implement the floating policy of railway bulk freight rate is a key step to adapt to the railway freight transport and supply-side reform. This paper first introduces the background and significance of the research, on the basis of summarizing the current research situation at home and abroad, defines the research content and technical route. Secondly, by analyzing the current mode of freight price adjustment and the floating policy of bulk freight rate, the paper points out the shortcomings of China's railway bulk freight price floating in three aspects: theoretical and technical support, response time, and reflection of market characteristics. Based on the analysis of the fluctuation of railway bulk freight rate, it is considered that the transport demand is an important influencing factor, and from the characteristics of transport demand, it is found that the fluctuation of transport demand is more practical to realize the fluctuation of freight rate. Then, the X-12-Arima model is established by using the theory of transport fluctuation, and the collected data of the bulk cargo volume of the HJG Railway Bureau are substituted to separate out four fluctuating components, which are trend, season, period and irregularity. The contents of each component are analyzed one by one. The analysis results include: the fluctuation range of demand, the main components of demand fluctuation, and the peak and low season according to the characteristics of quarterly transport volume and fluctuation. Then, according to the theory of transportation price and the principle of freight rate floating, the model of price floating is established, which is divided into peak and low season freight rate floating. In order to improve the volume of bulk freight and the quality of business operations, the target of floating freight rates is to increase the volume of goods in the lowest season and to increase the profits in the peak seasons, and between the upper limit of freight rates stipulated by the state policy and the lower limit of freight rates to maintain the basic operating needs of enterprises. The optimal floating freight rates for these two quarters are discussed. Finally, taking H Railway Bureau as an example, the rationality and feasibility of the model are verified by comparing the freight volume and freight income before and after the freight rate fluctuates, and the possible operational risks are analyzed, and the corresponding guiding adjustment suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F532.5

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