道路工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估系統(tǒng)研究
本文選題:道路施工企業(yè) + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估; 參考:《西南交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文
【摘要】:道路施工市場是一個(gè)瞬息萬變的市場,道路施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)無處不在,構(gòu)建針對道路施工企業(yè)特點(diǎn)的、層次明了的、操作性強(qiáng)的科學(xué)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估控制模型,對道路施工企業(yè)所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行相應(yīng)評估,這是非常有必要的。因?yàn)檫@樣可以清楚了解道路施工企業(yè)最有可能遭遇的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和對企業(yè)損失較大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),有利于企業(yè)積極部署風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施,減小企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失。 本文基于前人的研究基礎(chǔ)上,針對道路施工企業(yè)所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,本文選擇了專家調(diào)查評分法和AHP風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析法構(gòu)建風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型的框架,為企業(yè)提供識別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、應(yīng)對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的操作模型。 首先,介紹了本文的選題背景,以及道路施工企業(yè)的特點(diǎn)及對道路施工企業(yè)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的主要意義。在分析了國內(nèi)外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估和企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估工作現(xiàn)狀之后,提出了本文主要的工作內(nèi)容。 其次,簡單介紹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基本概念,企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的基本理論,道路施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的特點(diǎn)和目的。提出道路施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的基本流程,簡單介紹道路施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的基本方法,并比較各種方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),通過比較確定專家調(diào)查評分法和AHP層次分析法分別作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的基本方法。重點(diǎn)介紹選擇的這兩種方法的具體操作方法 然后,以中國中鐵七局集團(tuán)有限公司為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估對象,分別用專家調(diào)查評分法和AHP風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析法建立了企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型,設(shè)計(jì)道路施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別量表,確定了道路施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,通過AHP風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析法對其進(jìn)行分析比較,最后得出重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并基于決策者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好制定相應(yīng)的控制策略。同時(shí)總結(jié)全文面對用專家調(diào)查評分法和AHP層次分析法建立的施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法進(jìn)行相應(yīng)評價(jià)。 經(jīng)過驗(yàn)證,本文中建立的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型比較適用,專家調(diào)查評分法和AHP風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析法應(yīng)用于模型中,可以很好的處理道路施工企業(yè)在實(shí)踐中面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,可操作性強(qiáng),可為道路工程施工企業(yè)的下一步的決策提供方向和依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The road construction market is a rapidly changing market, and the risk of road construction enterprises is everywhere. A scientific risk assessment and control model, which aims at the characteristics of road construction enterprises, is constructed. It is necessary to evaluate the risk factors faced by road construction enterprises. Because of this, we can clearly understand the most likely risks encountered by road construction enterprises and the larger risks to the enterprises, which is helpful for enterprises to actively deploy risk control measures and reduce enterprise risk losses. Based on the previous research, this paper chooses the expert survey scoring method and AHP risk analysis method to construct the risk assessment model, aiming at the risk factors faced by road construction enterprises, which provides enterprises with risk identification and risk analysis. Operational model for risk management. Firstly, this paper introduces the background of this paper, the characteristics of road construction enterprises and the main significance of risk assessment for road construction enterprises. After analyzing the present situation of risk assessment at home and abroad, this paper puts forward the main contents of this paper. Secondly, it introduces the basic concept of risk, the basic theory of enterprise risk assessment, the characteristics and purpose of road construction enterprise risk assessment. This paper puts forward the basic process of risk assessment of road construction enterprises, introduces the basic methods of risk identification and risk assessment of road construction enterprises, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of various methods. The expert survey scoring method and AHP analytic hierarchy process are respectively used as the basic methods of risk identification and risk assessment. The specific operation methods of these two methods are introduced emphatically. Then, taking China China Railway Group Co., Ltd. as the risk assessment object, the enterprise risk assessment model is established by using the expert investigation scoring method and the AHP risk analysis method, respectively. The risk identification scale of road construction enterprise risk assessment is designed, and the main risk factors of road construction enterprise risk assessment are determined. The risk factors are analyzed and compared by AHP risk analysis method. Finally, the major risk factors are obtained. Based on the risk preference of the decision maker, the corresponding control strategy is developed. At the same time, the paper summarizes the corresponding evaluation of the risk assessment method of construction enterprises established by the method of expert investigation and AHP. After verification, the risk assessment model established in this paper is more suitable, the expert survey scoring method and AHP risk analysis method are applied to the model, which can deal with the risk factors faced by road construction enterprises in practice, and has strong operability. It can provide the direction and basis for the next decision of road engineering construction enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F272.3;F540.3
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