本文選題：鐵路貨運 + 收益管理　； 參考：《中南大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：收益管理起源于航空客運業(yè),經(jīng)過長期的發(fā)展已經(jīng)被廣泛應(yīng)用,本文通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)我國的鐵路貨運業(yè)具備應(yīng)用收益管理的基本特征,故將收益管理引入到我國鐵路貨運業(yè)來提高鐵路貨運收益,并對收益管理中的需求預(yù)測問題、定價問題、超訂問題做重點研究。 首先,分析我國鐵路貨運市場引入收益管理思想的必要性,并研究其引入收益管理的可行性。結(jié)果表明：我國鐵路貨運市場符合應(yīng)用收益管理的基本條件,鐵路貨運與航空運輸具有高度的相似性,因此在我國鐵路貨運市場中實行收益管理是可行的。 在需求預(yù)測方面,采用對ARMA預(yù)測、多元回歸預(yù)測、灰色預(yù)測的最優(yōu)加權(quán)組合預(yù)測對我國鐵路貨運短期需求進行預(yù)測,組合預(yù)測能克服單項預(yù)測存在的缺陷,提高預(yù)測精度。 在定價方面,根據(jù)銷售形式不同將鐵路運力銷售分為協(xié)議銷售和自由銷售,在進行協(xié)議銷售定價時,引入鐵路運力期權(quán)的概念,并對運力期權(quán)進行定價來實現(xiàn)“動態(tài)定價”,從而最大程度的實現(xiàn)收益的最大化；在進行自由銷售定價時,引入貨物運輸?shù)臅r效性因素,并對其在不同時刻進行“動態(tài)定價”,最大程度的實現(xiàn)收益的最大化。最后設(shè)定相關(guān)參數(shù),通過數(shù)值仿真驗證模型和方法的可行性。 最后研究考慮超訂的鐵路貨運運力分配,本文在傳統(tǒng)的超訂模型上考慮貨主的滿意度因素,建立考慮貨主滿意度的鐵路貨運超訂模型并對其進行實例應(yīng)用。 本文所做工作,旨在探索分析鐵路貨運應(yīng)用收益管理的理論與方法,希望收益管理思想能夠為鐵路貨運作出收益貢獻。
[Abstract]:Revenue management originated from the air passenger transport industry and has been widely used after a long period of development. This paper finds that the railway freight transport industry in China has the basic characteristics of the application of revenue management through research. Therefore, the revenue management is introduced into the railway freight industry to improve the railway freight revenue, and the demand forecasting, pricing and overbooking problems in the revenue management are studied emphatically. Firstly, the necessity of introducing revenue management into railway freight market is analyzed, and the feasibility of introducing revenue management is studied. The results show that the railway freight market in China accords with the basic conditions of the application of revenue management, and the railway freight and air transport have a high similarity, so it is feasible to carry out the revenue management in the railway freight market of our country. In the aspect of demand forecasting, ARMA forecast, multivariate regression forecast and the optimal weighted combination forecast of grey forecast are used to forecast the short-term demand of railway freight transport in China. The combined forecast can overcome the defects of single forecast and improve the forecast precision. In the aspect of pricing, railway capacity sales is divided into agreement sale and free sale according to different sales forms. In the process of pricing, the concept of railway capacity option is introduced, and the capacity option is priced to realize "dynamic pricing". In order to maximize the revenue, we introduce the timeliness factor of goods transportation, and "dynamic pricing" at different times to maximize the revenue. Finally, the relevant parameters are set and the feasibility of the model and method is verified by numerical simulation. Finally, considering the overbooking of railway freight capacity distribution, this paper considers the factors of cargo owner's satisfaction in the traditional overbooking model, establishes the railway freight overbooking model considering the cargo owner's satisfaction, and applies it to an example. The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyze the theory and method of revenue management in railway freight transport, hoping that the revenue management idea can contribute to the revenue of railway freight transport.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F532;U294

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 孫曉東;田澎;焦s，

本文編號：2015933