本文選題：貴都高速公路 + BOT��； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：發(fā)展交通,投資是關(guān)鍵。20世紀(jì)80年代后,隨著我國(guó)公路運(yùn)輸需求劇增和交通行為的變化,我國(guó)開(kāi)始步入高速公路發(fā)展階段。截至2011年底我國(guó)高速公路總里程達(dá)到8.5萬(wàn)公里,通車?yán)锍涛痪邮澜绲诙�。目�?我國(guó)正進(jìn)一步推行交通運(yùn)輸基本公共服務(wù)均等化,統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展以普通公路為主的非收費(fèi)公路體系和以高速公路為主的收費(fèi)公路體系,這為高速公路BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer,即建造-運(yùn)營(yíng)-移交)項(xiàng)目融資提供了機(jī)遇。 貴都高速公路作為國(guó)家高速公路“7918”網(wǎng)中廈蓉高速的組成部分和貴州省高速公路網(wǎng)中最重要的路段之一,采用內(nèi)資BOT建設(shè)模式。由于我國(guó)目前還缺乏針對(duì)高速公路內(nèi)資BOT項(xiàng)目融資方式的完善的法律體系和運(yùn)作方法,因此在貴都高速公路的建設(shè)—經(jīng)營(yíng)—移交過(guò)程中同時(shí)存在多種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文從BOT融資模式的概念、主要形式、基本運(yùn)作程序、特點(diǎn)以及BOT項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程入手,重點(diǎn)分析了貴都高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別、評(píng)價(jià)及其應(yīng)對(duì)。 在貴都高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別過(guò)程中,本文主要選擇采用德?tīng)柗品ê秃藢?duì)表法,然后將工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)法(WBS)引入到貴都高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中,建立了該項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分解結(jié)構(gòu),指出貴都高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目主要面臨經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及不可抗力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等五大類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文運(yùn)用層次分析法的原理,將貴都高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分為Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ層,進(jìn)而構(gòu)建其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系。在對(duì)各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)專項(xiàng)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)子項(xiàng)的重要程度進(jìn)行比較,并給出相應(yīng)的標(biāo)度值的基礎(chǔ)上,形成判斷矩陣,通過(guò)計(jì)算處理得出專項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重。同時(shí),采用CIM模型計(jì)算各層風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的概率分布,分析得出各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。 最后,針對(duì)貴都高速公路BOT項(xiàng)目面臨的各類主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提出具體的、具有較強(qiáng)針對(duì)性和操作性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:Development of transportation, investment is the key. After 1980s, with the rapid increase of highway transportation demand and the change of traffic behavior, China began to enter the stage of highway development. By the end of 2011, the total mileage of expressway reached 85000 km, ranking second in the world. At present, China is further promoting the equalization of basic public services in traffic and transportation, and coordinating the development of the non-toll highway system, which is dominated by ordinary highways, and the toll road system, which is based on expressways. This provides an opportunity for the financing of the project of BOTGUID-Operate-Transfer.Guidu Expressway is part of the Xiarong Expressway in the National Highway "7918" network and one of the most important sections of the Guizhou Expressway network. Adopt domestic capital bot construction mode. Due to the lack of perfect legal system and operation method for domestic bot project financing in China, there are many risks in the process of construction, operation and transfer of Guidu Expressway at the same time. Starting with the concept, main form, basic operating procedure, characteristics and risk management process of bot project, this paper analyzes the identification of bot project risk in Guidu Expressway. In the process of risk identification of Guidu Expressway bot project, this paper mainly adopts Delphi method and checklist method, and then introduces WBSmethod into the risk management of Guidu Expressway bot Project. The risk decomposition structure of the project is established, and it is pointed out that the bot project of Guidu Expressway is faced with five kinds of risks, such as management risk, industry risk, market risk, policy risk and force majeure risk. The risk factors of Guidu Expressway bot project are divided into 鈪，

本文編號(hào)：2004879