本文選題：北極航線 + 北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈��； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：北極航線開通指日可待,它連接了歐洲、北美、東北亞三個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易最活躍區(qū)域,使三者之間的運(yùn)輸距離大幅度縮短,具有極為特殊的地理優(yōu)勢。它不僅可以成為新的海洋交通大動脈,而且還可能此為紐帶形成一個(gè)以東亞、北美和歐洲為主體的北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈,進(jìn)而深刻影響世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和貿(mào)易格局。本文結(jié)合復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的分析方法,提出基于北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)的靴襻滲流模型,以東北航線作為重點(diǎn)研究對象,建立一個(gè)由兩部分節(jié)點(diǎn)組成的權(quán)重二分網(wǎng),通過對中心度、初始狀態(tài)活躍比例、闕值及相變現(xiàn)象等的分析,對北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)的結(jié)構(gòu)和演化進(jìn)行了研究,得出北極全面通航后理論上的北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò),最后對初始活躍比例和闕值等進(jìn)行了靈敏度分析,解釋貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)的一些基本現(xiàn)象及其所反映的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,進(jìn)一步印證研究的價(jià)值和合理性,對國家貿(mào)易政策制定提供有一定的幫助作用。結(jié)果表明:隨著北極航線開通條件的逐漸具備,影響世界航運(yùn)格局的各個(gè)因素也將會因?yàn)楸睒O航線開通而發(fā)生一定的變化,甚至還有可能發(fā)生意想不到的變化。中國正好位于北極航線所影響的范圍之內(nèi),它的開通對我國影響也將是十分巨大的。從現(xiàn)實(shí)條件出發(fā),尋求北極戰(zhàn)略選擇已迫在眉睫,我國可選擇“積極爭取,充分參與”的北極戰(zhàn)略,即:(1)積極打造北極航運(yùn)中心,完善ATN貿(mào)易體系,支持相關(guān)企業(yè)發(fā)展,積極構(gòu)建北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境生態(tài)圈;(2)適當(dāng)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)布局,以市場為導(dǎo)向,統(tǒng)籌北方港口協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,為ATN提供完善的硬件保障;(3)加強(qiáng)對目前潛在貿(mào)易伙伴(如芬蘭,瑞典)的雙邊合作,緊密結(jié)合“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略,為將來構(gòu)建“北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈戰(zhàn)略”做鋪墊。作為北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈貿(mào)易參與國的中國,北極航線使中國與北美洲、歐洲等地區(qū)其他貿(mào)易參與國之間的經(jīng)貿(mào)聯(lián)系更加方便、緊密,航線的開通將對中國的對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易聯(lián)系和戰(zhàn)略安全等方面產(chǎn)生重大影響。同時(shí),應(yīng)該考慮將北極航線的開發(fā)利用與正在實(shí)施中的“一帶一路”政策相結(jié)合,嘗試?yán)枚邇?yōu)勢取長補(bǔ)短,構(gòu)成海洋運(yùn)輸和陸路運(yùn)輸相聯(lián)動的綜合交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò),促進(jìn)我國全域全要素均衡發(fā)展�？偠灾�,北極航線的開通對于中國來說是一次難得的機(jī)遇,國家在制定相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)劃時(shí)應(yīng)充分考慮北極航線開通和北極航線經(jīng)濟(jì)圈形成后可能帶來的影響,及時(shí)采取具有前瞻性的經(jīng)濟(jì)策略。
[Abstract]:The opening of the Arctic route is available. It connects the three most active areas of economy and trade in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia, which makes the transport distance between the three people greatly shortened and has a very special geographical advantage. It can not only become a new marine traffic artery, but also can form a link in East Asia, North America and Europe. The economic circle of the Arctic route has a profound influence on the world economy and trade pattern. This paper, based on the analysis method of complex network, puts forward the seepage model of the boot loop based on the trade network of the Arctic route economic circle. It takes the Northeast route as the key research object and establishes a weight two net composed of two parts. The structure and evolution of the trade network of the Arctic route economic circle are studied, and the trade network of the Arctic route economic circle is obtained. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the initial active proportion and the threshold value is carried out to explain some basic current of the trade network. The value and rationality of the study will be further confirmed by the image and its practical significance. The results show that with the gradual availability of the conditions for the opening of the Arctic route, the various factors affecting the world shipping pattern will also change to a certain extent, even for the opening of the Arctic route. There may also be an unexpected change. China is just within the scope of the Arctic route, and its opening to China will be very great. From the realistic conditions, it is imminent to seek the strategic choice of the Arctic. China can choose "actively strive for, fully participate in" the Arctic strategy, that is (1) actively build the Arctic voyage. Transport center, perfect the ATN trade system, support the development of related enterprises, and actively build the economic environment ecosphere of the Arctic route; (2) adjust the industrial layout properly, take the market as the guidance, coordinate the coordinated development of the northern port, provide the ATN with the perfect hardware support; (3) strengthen the bilateral cooperation on the potential trade partners (such as Finland, Sweden), and closely combine "The Belt and Road" strategy for the future construction of the Arctic route economic circle strategy to pave the way. As the Arctic route in the economic circle of trade in China, the China Arctic route from North America, Europe and other regions to participate in other trade in the trade relationship between the more convenient, close to the route will China foreign economic trade union Have a significant impact and strategic security. At the same time, should consider the development and utilization of the Arctic route is combined with the implementation of the "The Belt and Road" policy, try to use the two advantages, integrated transportation and ocean transport and land transport linkage of the transport network, and promote the balanced development of China's global total factor. In a word, the opening of the Arctic route is a rare opportunity for China. The state should fully consider the possible impact of the opening of the Arctic route and the formation of the economic circle of the Arctic route in the formulation of the related economic development plan, and take a timely and forward-looking economic strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F551;F742

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本文編號：1995862