本文選題：青島港 + 吞吐量預(yù)測�。� 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國際間貿(mào)易往來日益頻繁，港口的重要作用和突出地位開始受到日益廣泛地關(guān)注，為了在競爭中爭取有利位置，在國家港口管理權(quán)限下放的有利背景下，各大港口建設(shè)規(guī)模驟然升級(jí)，紛紛投入大量資金進(jìn)行大型深水化及專業(yè)化泊位的建設(shè)。 作為太平洋西海岸重要的國際貿(mào)易口岸和海上運(yùn)輸樞紐，近幾年來，，青島港憑借其良好的自身優(yōu)勢及發(fā)展勢頭，已成為我國僅次于上海、深圳的第三大集裝箱運(yùn)輸港口。但與此同時(shí)，青島港也面臨著內(nèi)外交困的激烈競爭局面。由于缺乏科學(xué)分工，周邊港口爭先上馬礦石、集裝箱以及煤炭碼頭，青島港的優(yōu)勢貨種吞吐量受到弱化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，對(duì)其發(fā)展造成了巨大的壓力。 面對(duì)這樣的局面，青島港要想獲得可持續(xù)的發(fā)展，就應(yīng)在全面掌握港口發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和對(duì)未來進(jìn)行合理預(yù)測的基礎(chǔ)上，因地制宜地尋求一種符合港口自身情況的發(fā)展策略。在全面深入地了解港口現(xiàn)狀和科學(xué)預(yù)測港口未來發(fā)展趨勢的基礎(chǔ)上，合理進(jìn)行港口發(fā)展規(guī)劃并制定具有針對(duì)性的港口發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略是各港口在發(fā)展過程中需要探索的重要內(nèi)容。而這其中重要的一項(xiàng)就是對(duì)港口吞吐量進(jìn)行分析和預(yù)測。 本文將以青島港為研究對(duì)象，在對(duì)其港口吞吐量以及貨種進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上，全面掌握其發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，明確其主要的優(yōu)勢貨種。在此基礎(chǔ)上，采用基于灰色預(yù)測模型和BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型構(gòu)建的組合預(yù)測模型對(duì)青島港的貨物吞吐量及主要貨種的吞吐量進(jìn)行科學(xué)預(yù)測，從而合理掌握青島港未來的發(fā)展趨勢。最后，本文將幾個(gè)主要貨種的吞吐量與青島港現(xiàn)有的專業(yè)泊位的設(shè)計(jì)吞吐能力進(jìn)行了比較對(duì)其泊位吞吐能力的適應(yīng)性進(jìn)行了分析。并在以上分析得出的相關(guān)結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)青島港未來的發(fā)展提出了相應(yīng)的建議和策略。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly frequent international trade, the important role and prominent position of the port has been paid more and more attention. In order to gain a favorable position in the competition, under the favorable background of the decentralization of the national port management authority, The large port construction scale suddenly upgraded, one after another invested a lot of funds for the construction of large deep water and specialized berths. As an important international trade port and maritime transportation hub on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean, Qingdao Port has become the third largest container transportation port in China after Shanghai and Shenzhen in recent years. But at the same time, Qingdao Port is also facing internal and diplomatic difficulties of fierce competition. Due to the lack of scientific division of labor, there is a risk of weakening the throughput of superior cargo types in the surrounding ports such as ore, containers and coal terminals, which has caused great pressure on its development. In the face of such a situation, if Qingdao Port wants to obtain sustainable development, it should seek a development strategy according to local conditions on the basis of comprehensively mastering the present situation of port development and making reasonable prediction on the future. On the basis of understanding the present situation of the port and predicting the future development trend of the port scientifically, it is an important content for each port to explore in the course of its development by rationally carrying out the port development plan and formulating the relevant port development strategy. One of the most important is the analysis and prediction of port throughput. This paper will take Qingdao Port as the research object, on the basis of the analysis of its port throughput and cargo type, fully grasp its development status and make clear its main superior cargo species. On this basis, the combined forecasting model based on grey forecasting model and BP artificial neural network model is used to forecast the throughput of cargo and the throughput of main kinds of cargo in Qingdao Port scientifically. In order to reasonably grasp the future development trend of Qingdao Port. Finally, the throughput of several major cargo types is compared with the designed throughput capacity of the existing specialized berths in Qingdao Port. The adaptability of the berth throughput capacity is analyzed. On the basis of the above conclusions, some suggestions and strategies are put forward for the future development of Qingdao Port.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F552

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