本文選題：海洋交通運輸業(yè) + 協(xié)同演化�。� 參考：《中國海洋大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：海洋交通運輸業(yè)是我國的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)，該產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)由航海活動實現(xiàn)的人和物的空間轉(zhuǎn)移，是人類生產(chǎn)、生活與活動不可或缺的重要基礎(chǔ)。同時，它也是一種戰(zhàn)略性產(chǎn)業(yè)，是有效參與全球資源與市場配置的重要手段。貿(mào)易活動的頻繁進行以及其他相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展對海洋交通運輸產(chǎn)業(yè)提出了更高的要求。為此，我們需要從歷史的角度探討海洋交通運輸業(yè)發(fā)展壯大的原因，以實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的優(yōu)化。這就需要對我國海洋交通運輸業(yè)進行演化研究。 本文則是從演化的視角，以自組織理論為框架，研究海洋交通運輸業(yè)內(nèi)部各要素和外在因素對于產(chǎn)業(yè)整體的驅(qū)動作用。內(nèi)在動力分析上將海洋交通運輸系統(tǒng)看成是由技術(shù)水平、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、從業(yè)人數(shù)、貨運、客運五個子系統(tǒng)相互作用構(gòu)成的復雜動態(tài)系統(tǒng)，其演化主要是各個子系統(tǒng)協(xié)同作用的結(jié)果。作為子系統(tǒng)的代表因素，本文選取了海上船舶運輸總噸、沿海主要港口生產(chǎn)用碼頭長度、海洋交通運輸從業(yè)人員、貨運量、海洋旅客運輸量五個指標，運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法和協(xié)同演化模型，探究引導海洋交通運輸業(yè)復雜系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)在主導因素。同時，分階段定性分析了影響產(chǎn)業(yè)演化的外在動因。最后對產(chǎn)業(yè)演化的內(nèi)、外在動力機制作出說明并提出該產(chǎn)業(yè)有序演化的建議。文章的主要結(jié)論是：海洋交通運輸產(chǎn)業(yè)演化是由內(nèi)、外在動因共同驅(qū)動的，內(nèi)在動因主要是指技術(shù)水平、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，，從業(yè)人員。外在動因有與其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)、政策變遷、宏觀經(jīng)濟變化和海洋災(zāi)難和事故。內(nèi)容安排上分為這樣三大部分：第一部分是研究基礎(chǔ)，整理了海洋交通運輸產(chǎn)業(yè)演化的研究成果并做出述評；對自組織研究框架進行概況介紹。第二部分是對海洋交通運輸業(yè)的全面描述，包含發(fā)展歷史、政策、現(xiàn)狀、特征等內(nèi)容；第三部分主要是運用協(xié)同學模型研究海洋交通運輸產(chǎn)業(yè)演化問題，找到驅(qū)動其發(fā)展的主要內(nèi)在動力因素。此外分析了產(chǎn)業(yè)驅(qū)動的外在動力。研究方法上采用定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合，使研究結(jié)果更加真實可靠。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于將海洋交通運輸產(chǎn)業(yè)演化問題看作是由內(nèi)、外兩方面動力因素共同驅(qū)動的。內(nèi)在動力因素研究上，采用實證分析的手法，利用協(xié)同演化模型尋找產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部各個子系統(tǒng)中哪些是主要的，即主導了產(chǎn)業(yè)的演進。對于演化機制的分析也是融入了內(nèi)外各種因素。不足之處在于我國海洋交通運輸產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)缺失較為嚴重，且開始有記錄的年份較晚，導致樣本量沒有像普通陸域產(chǎn)業(yè)那樣多，結(jié)果可能會隨著時間的推移，數(shù)據(jù)的不斷豐富更加精確。
[Abstract]:Ocean transportation industry is the basic industry of our country. It is an indispensable foundation for human production, life and activity. At the same time, it is also a strategic industry, which is an important means to participate in the allocation of global resources and markets. The frequent trade activities and the development of other related industries put forward higher requirements for the maritime transportation industry. Therefore, we need to explore the reasons for the development of marine transportation industry from the historical point of view, in order to achieve industrial optimization. It is necessary to study the evolution of marine transportation industry in China. Based on the theory of self-organization, this paper studies the internal and external factors of marine transportation industry as a whole from the perspective of evolution. The inherent dynamic analysis regards the ocean transportation system as a complex dynamic system composed of five subsystems: technological level, infrastructure construction, number of employees, freight transport and passenger transport. Its evolution is mainly the result of the cooperation of each subsystem. As a representative factor of the subsystem, this paper selects five indexes: total tonnage of marine shipping, length of production wharf in major coastal ports, personnel engaged in maritime transportation, freight volume, ocean passenger transport volume, etc. By using the grey relation method and the co-evolution model, this paper explores the internal dominant factors leading to the complex system of marine transportation and transportation. At the same time, it analyzes the external causes of industrial evolution in stages. Finally, the internal and external dynamic mechanism of industrial evolution is explained and suggestions for orderly evolution of industry are put forward. The main conclusion of this paper is that the evolution of marine transportation industry is driven by internal and external drivers, and the internal motivation mainly refers to the level of technology, infrastructure construction and employees. External drivers are related to other industries, policy changes, macroeconomic changes and marine disasters and accidents. The content arrangement is divided into three parts as follows: the first part is the research foundation, collating the research results of marine transportation industry evolution and making a review; the self-organizing research framework is introduced. The second part is a comprehensive description of marine transportation, including development history, policy, current situation, characteristics, etc. The third part mainly uses Synergetic model to study the evolution of ocean transportation industry. Find out the main internal driving force that drives its development. In addition, the external driving force of industry is analyzed. Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are used to make the results more reliable. The innovation of this paper is that the evolution of marine transportation industry is driven by both internal and external dynamic factors. In the study of internal dynamic factors, we use the co-evolution model to find out which subsystems are the main ones, that is, to lead the evolution of the industry. The analysis of evolution mechanism is also integrated with internal and external factors. The deficiency lies in the fact that the lack of data in China's maritime transportation industry is relatively serious, and that the year in which records began to be recorded is relatively late, resulting in less sample size than in ordinary land industries, and the result may be over time. The constant enrichment of data is more accurate.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552.3

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