本文選題：干散貨 + 航運(yùn)市場　； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：國際干散貨海運(yùn)占國際航運(yùn)市場約1/3的份額,相比班輪市場和油輪市場,國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場更接近于完全競爭市場,在運(yùn)力供給和航運(yùn)需求的作用下,市場行情波動頻繁,競爭激烈。從2008年下半年開始美歐等經(jīng)濟(jì)體陸續(xù)進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,繼而在9月份金融危機(jī)全面爆發(fā),對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重打擊,干散貨海運(yùn)市場也隨之暴跌。即使在各國經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策下,干散貨航運(yùn)市場在2009和2010年有過階段性的上漲,但是,大量運(yùn)力投入市場和需求增長的不足,使得國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場將在未來的一段時間內(nèi)很難走出低谷。 本文基于上述背景,在收集大量數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,對國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場的供需平衡展開研究。文章首先從國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場概況入手,對國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場相關(guān)要素和主要運(yùn)作形式進(jìn)行介紹和說明,總結(jié)國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場特征和發(fā)展規(guī)律。接下來,本文通過建立國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場的簡單模型,分別對國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場的海運(yùn)需求、運(yùn)力供給和運(yùn)價指數(shù)從其特征、來源、影響因素以及2011年的發(fā)展情況等方面進(jìn)行分析。下一步,本文以供需平衡分析為主,結(jié)合相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)中成熟的預(yù)測方法,過定量、定性相結(jié)合,多種預(yù)測模型相結(jié)合,對未來五年國際干散貨市場的海運(yùn)需求、運(yùn)力供給和年平均運(yùn)價指數(shù)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,并對未來五年國際干散貨市場的發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行了分析。最后,文章在以上分析和論述的基礎(chǔ)上,為國際干散貨航運(yùn)企業(yè)總結(jié)當(dāng)采取的經(jīng)營策略,并提出了航運(yùn)企業(yè)在實(shí)施經(jīng)營策略時應(yīng)當(dāng)注意的問題。 本文在對國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場供給和需求方面的論述和分析比較全面,并通過建立供需平衡模型,引入“運(yùn)力指數(shù)”這一參數(shù),科學(xué)的反映了國際干散貨航運(yùn)市場供需平衡情況,為我國從事國際干散貨運(yùn)輸?shù)暮竭\(yùn)企業(yè)清晰的分析市場發(fā)展趨勢提供了理論依據(jù)并具有較強(qiáng)的可借鑒性。
[Abstract]:International dry bulk shipping accounts for about a third of the international shipping market. Compared with the liner market and the tanker market, the international dry bulk shipping market is closer to the completely competitive market. Under the influence of capacity supply and shipping demand, market prices fluctuate frequently. The competition is fierce. Economies such as the United States and Europe have been in recession since the second half of 2008, followed by a full-blown financial crisis in September, which has dealt a severe blow to the world economy and trade and sent the dry bulk shipping market plummeting. Even under the economic stimulus policies of various countries, the dry bulk shipping market experienced a gradual rise in 2009 and 2010, but a large amount of capacity was put into the market and the growth of demand was insufficient. International dry bulk shipping market will be difficult to get out of the trough in the future. Based on the above background, this paper studies the balance of supply and demand in international dry bulk shipping market on the basis of collecting a lot of data. Starting with the general situation of the international dry bulk shipping market, this paper introduces and explains the relevant elements and main operating forms of the international dry bulk shipping market, and summarizes the characteristics and development rules of the international dry bulk shipping market. Then, by establishing a simple model of the international dry bulk shipping market, this paper analyzes the shipping demand, capacity supply and freight rate index of the international dry bulk shipping market from its characteristics, sources. The influencing factors and the development of 2011 were analyzed. Next, this paper focuses on supply-demand balance analysis, combined with mature forecasting methods in relevant literature, over-quantitative, qualitative and multiple forecasting models, to meet the maritime demand of the international dry bulk market in the next five years. Capacity supply and annual average freight rate index are forecasted, and the development trend of international dry bulk market in the next five years is analyzed. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis and discussion, the paper summarizes the operational strategies adopted by the international dry bulk shipping enterprises, and puts forward some problems that should be paid attention to when the shipping enterprises carry out the management strategies. In this paper, the supply and demand of international dry bulk shipping market are discussed and analyzed comprehensively, and by establishing the model of supply and demand balance, the parameter of "capacity index" is introduced. It scientifically reflects the balance of supply and demand in the international dry bulk shipping market, and provides a theoretical basis and a strong reference for the shipping enterprises engaged in international dry bulk transportation to clearly analyze the market development trend.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F551

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 王曉薇;基于SVM和混沌時間序列的干散貨運(yùn)價指數(shù)預(yù)測研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2013年

2 賀強(qiáng);基于GARCH模型的國際干散貨運(yùn)價指數(shù)波動性研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2013年

3 付薔;世界石油海運(yùn)需求及運(yùn)輸格局研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號：1979849