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港口公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施資金籌措模式風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)分析

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-06-04 08:42

  本文選題:港口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施 + 資金籌措模式。 參考:《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:要發(fā)展我國(guó)現(xiàn)代物流,完善的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是不可缺少的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),因此必須高起點(diǎn)地建設(shè)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。港口是水陸運(yùn)輸?shù)穆?lián)結(jié)點(diǎn),,在交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中起著極其重要的作用。港口以及相關(guān)配套基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè),對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展都有著重大意義。 一直以來(lái),對(duì)于港口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的巨大的資金需求,多是通過(guò)政府財(cái)政投入的渠道來(lái)滿足,但是,因?yàn)楦劭诨A(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)一般都是大型的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,具有資金需求量大、建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng)、投資回報(bào)期長(zhǎng)、規(guī)模龐大等特點(diǎn),所以單靠政府投入,資金需求很難滿足。社會(huì)資金和民間資本流入基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施籌資領(lǐng)域后,因不同渠道籌集的資金性質(zhì)不同,而使得不同融資方式或方案中存在著不同的融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 基于此背景,本文通過(guò)介紹國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家以及國(guó)內(nèi)主要城市運(yùn)作同類性質(zhì)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的經(jīng)驗(yàn),總結(jié)分析了多種適合于港口公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的資金籌措模式,并探討運(yùn)用資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型、現(xiàn)金流量模型等數(shù)理方法進(jìn)行定量分析,構(gòu)建了基于同等項(xiàng)目的不同融資方案估算出現(xiàn)金流量?jī)衄F(xiàn)值(NPV),進(jìn)而計(jì)算出方案風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估值VAR,然后比較不同融資方案之間的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估值選擇最優(yōu)方案的分析思路。本文最后通過(guò)廣州港的案例分析,給出適合的資金籌措方式,并對(duì)四種融資方案進(jìn)行了VAR模型的應(yīng)用,驗(yàn)證了其可行性,從而為政府選擇融資方案提供了一套可行方法。因此本文對(duì)于我國(guó)港口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施資金籌措的研究具有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:In order to develop modern logistics in China, perfect infrastructure is an indispensable material foundation, so it is necessary to build logistics infrastructure at a high starting point. Port is the joint of land and water transportation and plays an extremely important role in transportation network. The construction of port and related infrastructure is of great significance to regional economic and social development. All along, the huge capital demand for port infrastructure construction is mostly met through the channels of government financial input. However, because port infrastructure construction is generally a large-scale infrastructure construction project, It has the characteristics of large capital demand, long construction period, long investment return period and large scale, so it is difficult to satisfy the capital demand by government investment alone. After social capital and private capital flow into the field of infrastructure financing, there are different financing risks in different financing methods or schemes because of the different nature of the funds raised through different channels. Based on this background, this paper summarizes and analyzes various financing modes suitable for port public infrastructure by introducing the experiences of foreign developed countries and major domestic cities operating infrastructure of the same nature. It also discusses the quantitative analysis by using mathematical methods such as asset pricing model, cash flow model, etc. The net present value of cash flow (NPV) is estimated by different financing schemes based on the same project, and then the VARs of the scheme risk are calculated, and then the analysis idea of choosing the optimal scheme for the risk valuation among different financing schemes is compared. Finally, through the case study of Guangzhou Port, this paper gives the suitable financing method, and applies the VAR model to the four financing schemes, and verifies its feasibility, thus providing a set of feasible methods for the government to choose the financing scheme. Therefore, this article has certain reference significance for our country port infrastructure financing research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F552;F283;F224

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