本文選題：城市軌道交通 + 出行成本　； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市規(guī)模急劇擴(kuò)大,交通問(wèn)題日趨嚴(yán)重。城市軌道交通系統(tǒng)具有運(yùn)量大、高效、安全等特點(diǎn),其建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng)成為緩解城市擁堵的根本解決手段之一。軌道交通一方面可為城市公共交通注入新型發(fā)展活力,另一方面也為周邊環(huán)境帶來(lái)明顯的外部效益,因此軌道交通的影響范圍及程度一直是城市公交系統(tǒng)的重要研究課題。目前,國(guó)內(nèi)軌道交通所帶來(lái)的外部效益主要反饋至線路沿線土地使用權(quán)所有人,如何促使外部效益及時(shí)有效反饋至軌道交通系統(tǒng),減少國(guó)家及地方政府投資壓力成為亟待解決的問(wèn)題之一。因此,建立定量分析模型對(duì)軌道交通影響范圍及開(kāi)發(fā)效益進(jìn)行度量與評(píng)價(jià),具有一定的理論價(jià)值及實(shí)際意義。 論文首先從軌道交通與房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)效應(yīng)動(dòng)態(tài)反饋關(guān)系及對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)刺激作用兩方面,綜合闡述軌道交通與房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)效應(yīng)之間關(guān)系,明確構(gòu)建軌道交通走廊對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)效應(yīng)影響范圍模型原理；從模型參數(shù)、理論基礎(chǔ)以及結(jié)果可信度三個(gè)角度比較分析基于可達(dá)性及出行成本的兩種建模思路,在明確出行成本構(gòu)成及計(jì)算方法的前提下,構(gòu)建基于出行成本的軌道交通走廊對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)效應(yīng)影響范圍模型；結(jié)合成都市地鐵1號(hào)線實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù),標(biāo)定模型參數(shù),計(jì)算1號(hào)線對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)效應(yīng)影響范圍,并對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。 其次,根據(jù)前文研究成果發(fā)現(xiàn),軌道交通車站所處位置土地性質(zhì)對(duì)影響范圍計(jì)算值產(chǎn)生較大影響,因此,本文在闡述車站分類的必要性及可行性的基礎(chǔ)上,選用系統(tǒng)聚類分析方法對(duì)軌道交通車站進(jìn)行分類。結(jié)合1號(hào)線各車站用地性質(zhì)情況,利用最短距離法“離群車站”——海洋公園站,獨(dú)立歸為一類。然后將“非離群車站”利用Ward法分為三類。 再次,在明確房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格兩種建模思路從模型應(yīng)用、參數(shù)、理論基礎(chǔ)以及結(jié)果可信度四個(gè)角度進(jìn)行比較分析,構(gòu)建基于車站分類的軌道交通對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響模型。 最后,對(duì)1號(hào)線沿線住宅小區(qū)進(jìn)行實(shí)例分析。通過(guò)定性和定量分析手段,確定基于車站分類的軌道交通對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響模型輸入及輸出參數(shù)；利用前文計(jì)算研究成果以及實(shí)際搜集數(shù)據(jù),標(biāo)定1號(hào)線各類車站模型參數(shù),從模型擬合度、總體性以及參數(shù)顯著性三方面進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),并對(duì)模型結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)并改進(jìn)后的模型擬合度較好,可用于軌道交通對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響計(jì)算的預(yù)測(cè)研究。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy, the scale of the city expands rapidly and the traffic problem becomes more and more serious. Urban rail transit system has the characteristics of large volume, high efficiency and safety, and its construction and operation has become one of the fundamental solutions to alleviate urban congestion. On the one hand, rail transit can inject new development vitality into urban public transport, on the other hand, it also brings obvious external benefits to the surrounding environment. Therefore, the scope and extent of the impact of rail transit has been an important research topic of urban public transport system. At present, the external benefits brought by the domestic rail transit mainly feed back to the owners of the land use right along the lines. How to promote the external benefits to feed back to the rail transit system in a timely and effective manner, Reducing state and local government investment pressure has become one of the problems to be solved. Therefore, it is of theoretical value and practical significance to establish a quantitative analysis model to measure and evaluate the impact range and development benefit of rail transit. Firstly, the paper expounds the relationship between rail transit and real estate development effect from two aspects: the dynamic feedback relation between rail transit and real estate development effect, and the stimulating effect on real estate development. Make clear the theory of the model of the influence range of the rail transit corridor on the real estate development effect, compare and analyze the two modeling ideas based on reachability and travel cost from the three angles of model parameters, theoretical basis and result reliability. On the premise of defining the structure and calculation method of travel cost, the paper constructs the model of the impact of rail transit corridor on real estate development based on travel cost, and calibrates the parameters of the model combined with the actual data of Metro Line 1 in Chengdu. The influence range of line 1 on real estate development effect is calculated, and the result is analyzed. Secondly, according to the previous research results, it is found that the land nature of the rail transit station location has great influence on the calculation value of the influence range. Therefore, this paper expounds the necessity and feasibility of the station classification. The systematic cluster analysis method is used to classify rail transit stations. According to the nature of each station in Line 1, the "outlier station"-Ocean Park Station is classified as an independent class by using the shortest distance method. Then the "non-outlier station" is divided into three categories by Ward method. Thirdly, on the basis of clarifying the theory of real estate price, this paper compares and analyzes the two modeling ideas of real estate price from four angles: model application, parameters, theoretical basis and result credibility. The influence model of rail transit on real estate price based on station classification is constructed. Finally, the residential district along Line 1 is analyzed as an example. By means of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper determines the input and output parameters of rail transit model based on station classification on real estate price, and calibrates all kinds of station model parameters of Line 1 by using the previous research results and actual data collection. The model fitting degree, the totality and the significance of the parameters are tested, and the results of the model are analyzed. It can be used to predict the influence of rail transit on real estate price.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F572;F299.23

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