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基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的鐵路安全經(jīng)濟(jì)決策分析

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-05-12 06:41

  本文選題:安全經(jīng)濟(jì) + 鐵路安全 ; 參考:《北京交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:摘要:近年來,中國(guó)鐵路的高速發(fā)展吸引了全世界的目光,鐵路也在逐漸成為旅客出行的首選交通方式。因此,鐵路運(yùn)輸安全不僅關(guān)系到生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全,還會(huì)引發(fā)諸多社會(huì)問題以及國(guó)際社會(huì)的密切關(guān)注。我國(guó)鐵路行業(yè)向來將安全生產(chǎn)擺在至關(guān)重要的位置地位,并從日常安全監(jiān)察、法律法規(guī)、安全技術(shù)等方面投入大量資源以保障鐵路安全運(yùn)營(yíng)。但是,由于我國(guó)鐵路系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性以及運(yùn)輸任務(wù)繁重,鐵路安全形勢(shì)仍然不容樂觀。因此,仍舊需要加大鐵路安全投入以改善整個(gè)鐵路系統(tǒng)的安全水平。進(jìn)行鐵路安全投資決策分析可以提高鐵路企業(yè)安全問題的可控性,有助于鐵路企業(yè)進(jìn)行合理的安全戰(zhàn)略決策以及企業(yè)進(jìn)行合理的資源配置。本文立足鐵路安全投資與安全績(jī)效的關(guān)系,建立鐵路安全投資系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,并進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè),確定各投資因素對(duì)安全系統(tǒng)的影響度。然后,模擬不同投資方案,比較其對(duì)鐵路系統(tǒng)安全總水平的影響程度。得出結(jié)論:鐵路安全投資非常必要,而且是一個(gè)需要長(zhǎng)期持續(xù)投入的過程,另外,不同安全投資方向?qū)﹁F路系統(tǒng)安全整體水平的影響存在差異,鐵路安全技術(shù)影響程度最大,其后分別為日常安全管理投入、安全教育水平、衛(wèi)生措施以及勞保品,在進(jìn)行投資決策時(shí)應(yīng)有先后、有側(cè)重。本論文有圖13幅,表20個(gè),參考文獻(xiàn)47篇。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: in recent years, the rapid development of Chinese railway has attracted the attention of the whole world, and railway has gradually become the preferred mode of transportation for passengers. Therefore, the safety of railway transportation is not only related to the safety of life and property, but also causes a lot of social problems and the close attention of the international community. China's railway industry has always placed safety production in a crucial position, and has invested a great deal of resources in daily safety supervision, laws and regulations, safety technology and so on to ensure the safe operation of railway. However, due to the complexity of China's railway system and heavy transport tasks, the railway safety situation is still not optimistic. Therefore, there is still a need to increase railway safety investment to improve the safety level of the entire railway system. The analysis of railway safety investment decision can improve the controllability of safety problems in railway enterprises. It is helpful for railway enterprises to make rational safety strategic decisions and to allocate resources reasonably. Based on the relationship between railway safety investment and safety performance, the dynamic model of railway safety investment system is established, and the dynamic prediction is made to determine the influence of various investment factors on safety system. Then, different investment schemes are simulated to compare their influence on the overall level of railway system safety. It is concluded that railway safety investment is very necessary and needs long-term continuous investment. In addition, the influence of different safety investment directions on the overall level of railway system safety is different, and the impact of railway safety technology is the greatest. After that, the investment in daily safety management, safety education level, health measures and labor insurance products should be emphasized in the investment decision. There are 13 figures, 20 tables and 47 references in this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F532.3;N941.3

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