本文選題：重慶公路物流園區(qū) + 貨運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前，物流產(chǎn)業(yè)在我國(guó)正蓬勃發(fā)展，建設(shè)物流園區(qū)是整個(gè)社會(huì)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)整體規(guī)劃的重要部分，物流園區(qū)發(fā)展的好與壞直接影響著一個(gè)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量。物流園區(qū)是我國(guó)現(xiàn)代物流體系中重要的物流組織管理節(jié)點(diǎn)，，也是發(fā)展我國(guó)現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)的突破口和基點(diǎn)，其建設(shè)對(duì)一個(gè)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、交通以及流通渠道建設(shè)等方面都有著十分重要的積極意義。 論文首先介紹了物流園區(qū)的概念、分類及功能及目前物流園區(qū)發(fā)展理論研究的成果；其次介紹國(guó)內(nèi)外物流園區(qū)發(fā)展的成熟經(jīng)驗(yàn)，主要介紹日本、德國(guó)的物流園區(qū)發(fā)展運(yùn)營(yíng)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，再根據(jù)第三次全國(guó)物流園區(qū)（基地）的調(diào)查報(bào)告[1]，說(shuō)明我國(guó)在物流園區(qū)建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng)方面存在的問(wèn)題；第三論文運(yùn)用指數(shù)平滑預(yù)測(cè)方法、多元回歸預(yù)測(cè)方法、灰色預(yù)測(cè)方法及三種方法的組合預(yù)測(cè)方法在理論方面和實(shí)際運(yùn)用對(duì)城市公路貨運(yùn)總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)；第四確定進(jìn)駐公路物流園區(qū)的主要物流品種進(jìn)而確定物流園區(qū)適站量作適當(dāng)?shù)挠懻摵脱芯俊?預(yù)測(cè)一個(gè)城市總體貨運(yùn)量的規(guī)模是各個(gè)物流園區(qū)規(guī)劃的不可缺少的前提條件，也是確定各個(gè)物流園區(qū)適站量多少的主要依據(jù)；適站量的研究主要是確定歸屬于各物流園區(qū)的可能適站量規(guī)模及主要物流品種，這是物流園區(qū)經(jīng)營(yíng)者對(duì)園區(qū)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃及功能布局的基本前提。本論文以重慶公路物流園區(qū)為背景，結(jié)合該市的公路貨運(yùn)量和重慶市物流項(xiàng)目發(fā)展規(guī)劃的實(shí)際情況，通過(guò)定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合，預(yù)測(cè)出公路物流園區(qū)2012年、2015年和2020年的貨運(yùn)量，根據(jù)要求進(jìn)駐公路物流園區(qū)的主要物流品種，確定了重慶公路物流園區(qū)的適站量，最后結(jié)合園區(qū)的實(shí)際，提出自己的發(fā)展建議。
[Abstract]:At present, the logistics industry is booming in our country. The construction of logistics park is an important part of the overall planning of the whole social logistics industry. The development of logistics park has a direct impact on the quality of regional economic development. Logistics park is an important node of logistics organization and management in modern logistics system of our country, and it is also the breakthrough point and basic point of developing modern logistics industry in our country. Traffic and circulation channel construction have very important positive significance. Firstly, the paper introduces the concept, classification and function of the logistics park and the current research results of the logistics park development theory; secondly, it introduces the mature experience of the logistics park development at home and abroad, mainly introduces Japan, The experience of logistics park development and operation in Germany, and then according to the third national logistics park (base) investigation report [1], explain the existing problems in logistics park construction and operation in China. Multiple regression forecasting method, grey forecasting method and combination forecasting method of three methods are used to forecast the total amount of urban highway freight in theory and practice. Fourth, determine the main types of logistics in the road logistics park, and then determine the appropriate station capacity of the logistics park for appropriate discussion and research. Forecasting the scale of a city's total freight volume is an indispensable prerequisite for the planning of each logistics park, and it is also the main basis for determining the appropriate station quantity of each logistics park. The research of the suitable station quantity is mainly to determine the possible suitable quantity scale and the main logistics varieties that belong to each logistics park, which is the basic premise of the logistics park operators' strategic planning and function layout for the development of the park. This paper takes Chongqing Highway Logistics Park as the background, combined with the actual situation of the city's highway freight volume and Chongqing logistics project development planning, through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The volume of freight transportation of highway logistics park in 2012, 2015 and 2020 is forecasted. According to the main kinds of logistics entering road logistics park, the suitable station quantity of Chongqing highway logistics park is determined. Finally, combining with the reality of the park, the author puts forward his own suggestions for development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F542.8;F259.27

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