本文選題：北極航線 + 水運(yùn)貨運(yùn)量　； 參考：《上海海洋大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球氣候變暖,北半球夏季海冰加速融化、海冰覆蓋面積持續(xù)縮減,北極航線全面開通的可能性大大增加。目前,北極航線正處于商業(yè)試航階段。但是,對于北極航線相較傳統(tǒng)航線是否存在成本優(yōu)勢在學(xué)術(shù)界還存在爭議。由于航運(yùn)成本決定了航運(yùn)企業(yè)是否會選擇北極航線進(jìn)行遠(yuǎn)洋運(yùn)輸,因此,本文試圖在選擇樣本國家、樣本港口和樣本船型以及收集中國航運(yùn)業(yè)實(shí)際統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用海洋船舶航運(yùn)成本核算方法估算了北極航線和傳統(tǒng)航線的航運(yùn)成本,并對兩者進(jìn)行比較分析,以此判斷北極航線是否存在經(jīng)濟(jì)性。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文從理論和實(shí)證兩方面分析了北極航線開通對中國沿海省(市)航運(yùn)業(yè)的潛在影響。理論方面,分析了航運(yùn)企業(yè)的航線選擇對中國沿海省(市)進(jìn)出口的影響,以及中國沿海省(市)進(jìn)出口對其航運(yùn)業(yè)的影響。實(shí)證方面,首先,用航行時(shí)間替代航運(yùn)距離的方法將海冰因素納入到了引力模型中,對傳統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易引力模型進(jìn)行了修正;其次,以進(jìn)出口額作為核心變量構(gòu)建了有關(guān)水運(yùn)貨運(yùn)量和外貿(mào)貨物吞吐量的計(jì)量模型;最后,構(gòu)建了中國沿海省(市)水運(yùn)貨運(yùn)量和外貿(mào)貨物吞吐量的預(yù)測模型。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:第一,與傳統(tǒng)航線相比,北極航線在燃油費(fèi)和航運(yùn)總成本方面具有成本優(yōu)勢,而在船舶租金方面處于相對劣勢。北極航線和傳統(tǒng)航線的總港口使費(fèi)基本相等。在無需破冰服務(wù)的情況下,北極航線較之傳統(tǒng)航線在通行費(fèi)方面具有成本優(yōu)勢;而在需要破冰服務(wù)的情況下,北極航線較之傳統(tǒng)航線在這方面則處于相對劣勢。與需要破冰服務(wù)的情況相比,在無需破冰服務(wù)的情況下,北極航線較之傳統(tǒng)航線在航運(yùn)總成本方面的成本優(yōu)勢更大。具體而言,與傳統(tǒng)航線相比,北極航線的燃油費(fèi)低15%左右,船舶租金高36.5%左右。在需要破冰服務(wù)的情況下,北極航線的航運(yùn)總成本比傳統(tǒng)航線低2.4%左右,而通行費(fèi)比傳統(tǒng)航線高12.4%左右;在無需破冰服務(wù)的情況下,由于沒有通行費(fèi),北極航線的航運(yùn)總成本比傳統(tǒng)航線低9.2%左右;第二,與傳統(tǒng)航線相比,船舶從上海港至俄羅斯、加拿大、美國(東北部)、挪威和英國的港口選擇北極航線具有成本優(yōu)勢;第三,在無需破冰服務(wù)的情況下,船舶從上海港至法國西北部的港口選擇北極航線較之傳統(tǒng)航線也具有了成本優(yōu)勢。與需要破冰服務(wù)的情況相比,在無需破冰服務(wù)的情況下,船舶從上海港至俄羅斯、加拿大、美國(東北部)、挪威和英國的港口選擇北極航線較之傳統(tǒng)航線的成本優(yōu)勢更大;最后,相對傳統(tǒng)航線而言,中國沿海省(市)與北極航線沿線國家間的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易經(jīng)北極航線進(jìn)行運(yùn)輸時(shí),其水運(yùn)貨運(yùn)量和外貿(mào)貨物吞吐量均將有所提升,提升幅度分別為2.46%和2.41%。
[Abstract]:With global warming, the Northern Hemisphere summer sea ice melting accelerated, sea ice cover area continues to shrink, the possibility of the full opening of the Arctic route greatly increased.At present, the Arctic route is in the commercial trial stage.However, there is still controversy in academia about whether Arctic routes have cost advantages over traditional routes.Because the shipping cost determines whether the shipping enterprise will choose the Arctic route for ocean transportation, this paper attempts to select the sample countries, sample ports and sample ship types, and collect the actual statistical data of the Chinese shipping industry.The paper estimates the shipping cost of Arctic route and traditional route by using the method of ocean shipping cost accounting, and makes a comparative analysis of the two to judge whether the Arctic route is economical or not.On this basis, this paper analyzes the potential impact of the opening of Arctic routes on the shipping industry of China's coastal provinces (cities) from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Theoretically, this paper analyzes the influence of shipping enterprises' route selection on the import and export of China's coastal provinces (cities) and the influence of China's coastal provinces'(cities)'s imports and exports on their shipping industry.In the empirical aspect, firstly, the sea ice factor is incorporated into the gravity model by the method of shipping time instead of shipping distance, and the traditional trade gravity model is modified.Taking import and export volume as the core variable, this paper constructs the metrological model of waterborne freight volume and foreign trade cargo throughput, and finally, constructs the forecasting model of waterborne freight volume and foreign trade cargo throughput in coastal provinces (cities) of China.The empirical results show that: first, compared with the traditional routes, Arctic routes have cost advantages in fuel costs and total shipping costs, but are relatively inferior in terms of ship rental.The total port of the Arctic route and the traditional route is roughly equal.In the case of no ice-breaking service, the Arctic route has a cost advantage over the traditional route in toll, while the Arctic route is at a relative disadvantage compared with the traditional route in the case of the need for ice-breaking service.Compared with the need for ice-breaking services, Arctic routes have greater cost advantages than traditional routes in terms of total shipping costs without ice-breaking services.Specifically, compared with the traditional route, the fuel cost of the Arctic route is about 15% lower, and the ship rental is about 36.5% higher.In cases where ice-breaking services are required, the total cost of shipping on Arctic routes is about 2.4 per cent lower than on traditional routes, while tolls are about 12.4 per cent higher than on traditional routes; without ice-breaking services, there are no tolls,The total shipping cost of Arctic routes is about 9.2% lower than that of traditional routes; second, compared with traditional routes, ships from Shanghai to Russia, Canada, the United States (ports in the Northeast, Norway and Britain) have cost advantages in choosing Arctic routes; third,Without the need for ice-breaking services, the choice of Arctic routes from Shanghai to northwestern France also has a cost advantage over traditional routes.In the absence of ice-breaking services, ships from Shanghai to Russia, Canada, the United States (Northeastern, Norway and Britain) have greater cost advantages over traditional routes in choosing Arctic routes than in cases where ice-breaking services are required;Finally, compared with traditional routes, when the import and export trade between China's coastal provinces (cities) and countries along the Arctic route is carried out through the Arctic route, their waterborne cargo volume and foreign trade cargo throughput will both increase.The increases were 2.46% and 2.41%, respectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F552

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