本文選題：船舶引航　切入點(diǎn)：航行安全　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，天津港不斷加快向世界一流大港邁進(jìn)的步伐，在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)和天津市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮了重要的作用。在天津港的物流系統(tǒng)中，引航是其中的一個(gè)重要環(huán)節(jié)，它承擔(dān)著引領(lǐng)中外船舶進(jìn)出港口的重要責(zé)任，同時(shí)也是一項(xiàng)具有較高安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的工作。而天津港水域較大的船舶通航密度和復(fù)雜的通航環(huán)境使這項(xiàng)工作的難度和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)一步增加。 隨著天津港水域船舶數(shù)量的逐年增多，船舶引航的艘次也隨之增長(zhǎng)。2011年已經(jīng)超過20000艘次，日平均達(dá)60余艘次，是2001年的兩倍。此外，由于現(xiàn)代船舶制造業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展，船舶的種類變的越來越多、噸位變的越來越大、速度也越來越快。這些都給天津港船舶引航作業(yè)帶來了很多的新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 保證港口設(shè)施和航行船舶的安全，是引航工作的核心。本文充分運(yùn)用調(diào)查分析、統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷、FSA（Formal Safety Assessment，綜合安全評(píng)估）等方法，對(duì)天津港船舶引航安全情況進(jìn)行了較為系統(tǒng)的研究，深入分析了2001年至2010年期間的船舶引航工作的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況及其形成原因。通過對(duì)歷年來的天津港引航事故進(jìn)行剖析，總結(jié)了這些事故所具備的共性及特點(diǎn)，提出了威脅引航安全并造成事故的基本因素(如自然條件、船舶、交通、航道、引航員、管理等)，，闡明了這些因素之間的相互影響和作用。著重強(qiáng)調(diào)了通航環(huán)境、人為因素、安全管理對(duì)船舶航行安全的重要影響。最后，結(jié)合當(dāng)前天津港引航的實(shí)際情況，使用基于貝葉斯統(tǒng)計(jì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)方法對(duì)以后的船舶引航安全發(fā)展趨勢(shì)和情況進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)，并在這些工作的基礎(chǔ)上，為天津港引航風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)控提出了一些建議性的意見，為減少引航事故制定了一些具體的措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Tianjin Port has been speeding up the pace of stepping forward to the world-class port, which has played an important role in the regional economy and the economic development of Tianjin. In the logistics system of Tianjin Port, pilotage is one of the important links. It bears the important responsibility of guiding Chinese and foreign ships in and out of ports. At the same time, it is also a work with high safety risk, and the difficulty and risk of this work are further increased due to the larger vessel traffic density and complex navigable environment in Tianjin Port waters. As the number of ships in the waters of Tianjin Port increases year by year, the number of pilotage ships also increases. In 2011, more than 20000 ships were piloted, with an average of more than 60 times a day, double the number in 2001. In addition, with the vigorous development of the modern shipbuilding industry, The variety of ships becomes more and more, the tonnage becomes larger and faster, which brings a lot of new risks to the pilotage operation of Tianjin Port. It is the core of pilotage work to ensure the safety of port facilities and navigation ships. This paper makes a systematic study on pilotage safety of Tianjin Port by means of investigation and analysis, statistical inference and so on. In this paper, the risk and causes of pilotage work in Tianjin Port from 2001 to 2010 are analyzed, and the commonness and characteristics of these accidents are summed up by analyzing the pilotage accidents of Tianjin Port over the years. The basic factors (such as natural condition, ship, traffic, channel, pilot, management, etc.) which threaten pilotage safety and cause accidents are put forward. The mutual influence and function of these factors are expounded. The navigable environment and man-made factors are emphasized. Finally, combined with the actual situation of pilotage in Tianjin Port, the risk prediction method based on Bayesian statistics is used to predict the development trend and situation of pilotage safety in the future. On the basis of these works, some suggestions for pilotage risk control in Tianjin Port are put forward, and some concrete measures are made to reduce pilotage accidents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F552.7

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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